A_Wise_Man said: Chrynos1989 said: GJormagund said: Chrynos1989 said: You honestly have to look at it from a scientific point of viewin a world without luck and standard deviation, bonus heroes would mean one every 280 pulls (15% chance for 5*= 1 every 7 pulls, 2.5% for bonus heroes on every 5* pull= 1 every 40 5*, 7x40=280), with shards, 280x3=840, means 1.66 covers for 280 pulls I believe your initial assumption is wrong. Say you pulled 140 classics/latest under the old rules. At odds of 1 in 20 you would expect 7 bonus heroes. Therefore 1 of the 7 assuming an even distribution should be a 5 star.Under your model you pull 280 times and expect 14 BH with 1 in 14 being 5 star and 13 in 14 being 4 star. Clearly at 1 in 7 chance of a 5 star and 6 in 7 chance of a 4 star you'd expect the 14BHs from 280 pulls to give you two 5 stars and 12 4 stars.I don't know where you got the 2.5% or 1 in 40 odds from?This gives approx one 5 star in 140 pulls under the old system and 1 in 166.66... under the new system. This makes much more sense than a jump from 1 in 280 down to 1 in 166. We'd probably all be embracing shards unreservedly if that was the case! I’m pretty sure the odds for a 5* bonus hero was 1:40 in all storesalso im only referring too 5*, since that are the ones people wail the most about It was 1 in 20 for every pull. 5 stars were 15% of pulls. That boils down to about 1 in every 133 pulls for a 5 star bonus hero, assuming RNG was good to you. It's now about 167 pulls for a 5 from shards. While it "feels" bad to need the extra 34 pulls, this ends up being an extra 5 star cover every 670 pulls on average. If your BH rates were low, it evens out or shards are better. If your rates were high, maybe you lose more than 1 in 670. But factor in an unusable color and shards win hands down.
Chrynos1989 said: GJormagund said: Chrynos1989 said: You honestly have to look at it from a scientific point of viewin a world without luck and standard deviation, bonus heroes would mean one every 280 pulls (15% chance for 5*= 1 every 7 pulls, 2.5% for bonus heroes on every 5* pull= 1 every 40 5*, 7x40=280), with shards, 280x3=840, means 1.66 covers for 280 pulls I believe your initial assumption is wrong. Say you pulled 140 classics/latest under the old rules. At odds of 1 in 20 you would expect 7 bonus heroes. Therefore 1 of the 7 assuming an even distribution should be a 5 star.Under your model you pull 280 times and expect 14 BH with 1 in 14 being 5 star and 13 in 14 being 4 star. Clearly at 1 in 7 chance of a 5 star and 6 in 7 chance of a 4 star you'd expect the 14BHs from 280 pulls to give you two 5 stars and 12 4 stars.I don't know where you got the 2.5% or 1 in 40 odds from?This gives approx one 5 star in 140 pulls under the old system and 1 in 166.66... under the new system. This makes much more sense than a jump from 1 in 280 down to 1 in 166. We'd probably all be embracing shards unreservedly if that was the case! I’m pretty sure the odds for a 5* bonus hero was 1:40 in all storesalso im only referring too 5*, since that are the ones people wail the most about
GJormagund said: Chrynos1989 said: You honestly have to look at it from a scientific point of viewin a world without luck and standard deviation, bonus heroes would mean one every 280 pulls (15% chance for 5*= 1 every 7 pulls, 2.5% for bonus heroes on every 5* pull= 1 every 40 5*, 7x40=280), with shards, 280x3=840, means 1.66 covers for 280 pulls I believe your initial assumption is wrong. Say you pulled 140 classics/latest under the old rules. At odds of 1 in 20 you would expect 7 bonus heroes. Therefore 1 of the 7 assuming an even distribution should be a 5 star.Under your model you pull 280 times and expect 14 BH with 1 in 14 being 5 star and 13 in 14 being 4 star. Clearly at 1 in 7 chance of a 5 star and 6 in 7 chance of a 4 star you'd expect the 14BHs from 280 pulls to give you two 5 stars and 12 4 stars.I don't know where you got the 2.5% or 1 in 40 odds from?This gives approx one 5 star in 140 pulls under the old system and 1 in 166.66... under the new system. This makes much more sense than a jump from 1 in 280 down to 1 in 166. We'd probably all be embracing shards unreservedly if that was the case!
Chrynos1989 said: You honestly have to look at it from a scientific point of viewin a world without luck and standard deviation, bonus heroes would mean one every 280 pulls (15% chance for 5*= 1 every 7 pulls, 2.5% for bonus heroes on every 5* pull= 1 every 40 5*, 7x40=280), with shards, 280x3=840, means 1.66 covers for 280 pulls
Godzillafan67 said: I see no reason why we can't get a sparkly Bonus Shards! with smashing sound effect.