Which is faster: 8 4* direct bonus heroes, or max champing a 3* feeder 2.5 times?

ThaRoadWarrior

I'm nearing the end of my year long commitment to completing Jessica Jones via America Chavez. I've taken her from 285 to 342, and I just need 8 more to switch it over to somebody else next and do the same thing.

Around the same time, I committed to only pulling from Latest Legends as I get resources to try and cover my first 5*, which happened to be Fi5k (don't judge, Spider-Verse is a dope movie). I managed to get him to 11 covers before he dropped out, then once Miles was made a feeder, he was already at 280 so I got a 12th cover. Now Miles Morales happens to be at 292, exactly 8 covers away from completing him. 

So here is the race: my Spid3r-Man is currently 219. My Bag-Man is 112. My 4* bonus hero is still set to Chavez, and my 3* hero is on Spider-Man. I'm going to see which of these two 5*s can get force-fed to champable first. My 5* is on Okoye, so that won't be a factor here. Anyone care to make some guesses as to whether I can get 8 more 4* bonus heroes before I get 273 3* bonus heroes? (not counting organic pulls or rewards)

purplemur

ThaRoadWarrior said:

my first 5*, which happened to be Fi5k (don't judge, Spider-Verse is a dope movie).

My Bag-Man is 112.

Spider-Verse = easily best Spiderman, probably T3 Marvel (includes all Fox&Sony)


With bag man on your side? Gotta go with the Champions to finish first! 

but probably 8 BH, my worthy cap is almost done and I am far from competitive, but my Squirrel Girl to Ant-Man to Wasp (don’t judge Call the Storm is a dope move) is just finishing her second iteration and its been couple months with detours
Please post updates and results! 

MadScientist

Assuming that you only use heroic tokens:

Every heroic token gives a 3* cover with a probability of ~1/5 of which 1/20 give a bonus cover. So you can expect ~1/100 3* bonus covers per heroic token. Therefore you can expect to get 273 3* bonus covers after opening ~27300 heroic tokens.

Every heroic token gives a 4* cover with a probability of ~1/16 of which 1/20 give a bonus cover. So you can expect ~1/320 4* bonus covers per heroic token. Therefore you can expect to get 8 4* bonus covers after opening ~2560 heroic tokens.

Counting only bonus covers you are much much more likely to get the 8 4* covers first.

ThaRoadWarrior

I pull all tokens from all stores as I get them, so it isn't limited to heroics. Also I'm 100% f2p, so unless it costs earned hp or cp, I won't be using any HfH deals for this.

My America Chavez/Day ratio since I moved my Bonus Hero over to her on February 25th, 2019 is:

0.23 America Chavez covers/day.

This is inclusive of organic pulls and rewards. So roughly one cover every 5 days on average, but in practice it's very clumpy. 

In this span of time, I organically finished Spid3r-Man and flipped him over, and without bonusing him at all, he is back up to 219. So now that he is my sole BH, I'm not at all sure which of the two is actually going to grow faster. 

The side-bet on this race is: Will either character get finished before the mystery new Targeted Character feature goes live?

ThaRoadWarrior

This thread is likely going to have a fairly glacial update cadence, but I'll try and updated it as the 4* covers drop. Spid3r-Man is now at 220, no movement on Chavez yet. 

ThaRoadWarrior

Got a 5* bonus this morning, good thing it was Okoye or this would have fizzled out quick...

St_Bernadus

If you were hoarding CP and LTs it might be a race but with those surely 8 Americas will be much quicker.

ThaRoadWarrior

the last 8 chavez covers I pulled out of Latest, inclusive of organic pulls and bonus heroes took 102 days. Obviously bonus and organic covers were coming from other places, but I haven't been tracking that. 

If I had to guess, I'd imagine that barring some organic hot streak on Miles Morales or some other kind of anomoly, I will probably have finished this Spid3r-Man and maybe gotten to 183 on the second one, but RNG makes it exciting, right?

ThaRoadWarrior

Bonus Chavez out of Latest - she has taken the lead at 343, 7 covers to go.

tupacboy

Dang 57 America covers in one year is impressive as a BH... 57 * Avg of 20 pulls per is 1140 pulls in less then a year.... Or roughly 28k cp. Geez

ThaRoadWarrior

That wasn't all from BHs, that was inclusive of organic pulls and progression rewards, as well as pulls from other stores (pvp stores give out more regular 4* bonus heroes than Legendaries I find anecdotally). 

So far in 2019 I've tracked:
597 pulls out of Latest.
27 4* bonus heroes from Latest
4 5* bonus heroes out of Latest

I got another bonus Chavez this morning off that crash LT, so she has taken a commanding lead in this race!

tupacboy

Still a impressive rate

DAZ0273

I have had exactly zero 5* bonus heroes in well over 365 days - the last one that I got was before Kitty Pryde was in the game.

ThaRoadWarrior

I just pulled an organic Chavez, this isn't even a race at this point lol. She is currently at 345.

I see from HFH she will be the next crash, and given that I have time to save up the hp for it, I'm seriously considering punting on this particular experiment and just direct-acquiring the cover. Should I, or is this entertaining enough for y'all?

Based on my mid-year projections, I was expecting to have Jessica Jones completed via Chavez sometime in November, so it looks like RNG is kind of playing catchup here with me.

@DAZ0273 I'm pulling a little over 2 LTs/Day on average, I'm right around the "correct" hit rate I think. Are you pulling from one store, or from all over the place?

tiomono

DAZ0273 said:

I have had exactly zero 5* bonus heroes in well over 365 days - the last one that I got was before Kitty Pryde was in the game.

That sounds crazy. I pull maybe 6 to 7 tokens a week (I'm not really tracking it.) 
I pulled only from latest legends when iceman entered them. He is fully covered already and I got 3 or 4 bonus heros on him. Storm is 2-5-2, prof is 4-0-3.

Now my bonus is on my 3-3-5 goblin and I will be using cp only on classics.

ThaRoadWarrior

tiomono said:

DAZ0273 said:

I have had exactly zero 5* bonus heroes in well over 365 days - the last one that I got was before Kitty Pryde was in the game.

I pulled only from latest legends when iceman entered them. 

Waiting for confirmation from Daz about where his resources go, but i bet that's it right there. If you're diluting your pulls across multiple stores, they are all seperate tracks for bonus hero drop rates. So you are probably "right" in the odds, but you've essentially divided your odds by the number of stores you're pulling from if you aren't consolidated into a single one.

DAZ0273

I pulled I would guestimate 75% of my pulls from Latest via LT's and CP with the rest split between Stores and Classics. I think I may have made no more than 10 pulls from Classics in this time period. So surely I should have had a reasonable chance at a Bonus Hero in that time you would think from one source or another?

DAZ0273

For reference for example from the latest 3 my Iceman is 0/5/3, my Storm is 2/0/2 and my Prof X is 0/2/1 and I received zero covers from Prof X HP store. So 15 5* covers in that period and zero bonus 5* - I would have to work out how many 5* prior to this, Hang on...

DAZ0273

...yeah, is probably gonna be affected by a few stores so probably not much use. Anyway - ignoring any covers obtained from champion levels (none of my characters are high enough to award multiple 5* covers apart from Captain Marvel at 2 covers) I think I have at least 50 5* covers that would have qualified for a Bonus Hero in 2019.

DAZ0273

So...I guess the game has just screwed me then? Lol! At this point I actually just figured that 5* bonus heroes had been withdrawn...

ThaRoadWarrior

Maybe you're on an episode of Upright Citizen's Brigade, and they're doing a social experiment on you?