When does 5Kingpin rotate out of LLs ?

tonypq

Still undecided to spend my stash, but I decided to take 1 pull at least, got a red Carol and bonus cover Thanos I needed heh, not a bad first pull. 

jredd

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

GrimSkald

jredd said:

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

I mean, I've never enrolled in a statistic course, but yeah, on 30 pulls you'll get a BH... noticeably over half the time or something?  20 would be half the time.  Also, on average (i.e. half the time again,) you would get 4.5 5*, so this person is "down" 1.5 5* from the the median (and drawing half a 5* is impossible,) so again, a bit unlucky but not at all ridiculous.

I pulled 85, did noticeably above average (yay!) but even there I had a run of 21 where I didn't pull any 5*s.  You take any sample and you can get pretty much any result you can think of.  My worst ever run of no 5*s was something like 40.

HoundofShadow

The universal truth of odds or probability is that one will get closer or be equal to the displayed probability when the sample is large enough. It's not a guarantee that you will get tail half of the time for every x number of flips per experiment.

To get an accurate rate, the player has to track every LTs that have been pulled from beginning till now and then compare it against the display odds, instead if comparing the new set of pulls against the display odds.

Heartbreaksoup

jredd said:

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

Not sure why you'd read that and think that I either have an "expectation" of BHs, or that I am unfamiliar with statistics.  Going 1:10 on 5*s and 0:30 on BHs are both certainly within the range of probability against a stated 1:8 and 1:20 odds, but I was unlucky, and that wasn't a result I'd have asked for.  I am also informed enough to know that a 31st pull might have given me a 5* with a BH, changing the results into something that I would enjoy, and report to the forum with a smile rather than with a shrug.

(To be honest, the real disappointments are that my Doom is now 4/0/1, and that his Yellow power is the least interesting to me of his three.  Ah well.)

pheregas

jredd said:

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

Let's do a little napkin math.  There are 10 5s that do not have feeders.  Let's just average 4 progression covers for the remainder of 5s, so that would be 23 5s with progression.  23x5 = 115 progression achieved covers.  

That being said I have 21 champed 5s.  If I count their initial 13 covers, their levels, then the banished to classics 5s, plus the currents, it amounts to 536 covers.  Add on 3 saved covers = 539, but subtract those estimated progression covers, so the total amount of covers opened from a token is 424.

I've had 4 Bonus Hero 5s, so lets go ahead and subtract those out.  420 covers.

For something that is supposed to have 1:20 odds of happening, I would have have been predicted to have received 21 BH in that amount of time, not the 1:105 I actually have gotten.  

That's why I'm a bit bitter about it all.

jredd

GrimSkald said:

jredd said:

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

I mean, I've never enrolled in a statistic course, but yeah, on 30 pulls you'll get a BH... noticeably over half the time or something?  20 would be half the time.  Also, on average (i.e. half the time again,) you would get 4.5 5*, so this person is "down" 1.5 5* from the the median (and drawing half a 5* is impossible,) so again, a bit unlucky but not at all ridiculous.

I pulled 85, did noticeably above average (yay!) but even there I had a run of 21 where I didn't pull any 5*s.  You take any sample and you can get pretty much any result you can think of.  My worst ever run of no 5*s was something like 40.

each pull is independent to the rest of the pulls. one in twenty absolutely does not mean you will get 1 bh every twenty pulls. nor does it mean you are entitled to 1 bonus hero every twenty pulls. it basically boils down to luck on every pull. 

there is also the matter of sample size 30 pulls is a drop in an ocean.  the 1:20 ratio will be approximated after thousands of pulls. 30 is way too small. 

and the luck (or lack thereof) aspect means i could pull 30 times and get 3 bh and you could pull 30 and get none. or 50 and get none. or 100 and get 3. 

jredd

Heartbreaksoup said:

jredd said:

Heartbreaksoup said:

30 LLs, 3 5*s, the third on the last pull.  2 Yellow Dooms and 1 Black Hela, each a color I already have.  Not a single BH.  Not a result I'd have asked for.

not sure why people expect bonus heroes? they're a bonus. with 1:20 odds. on 30 pulls... folk need to enrol in some free online statistics courses.

Not sure why you'd read that and think that I either have an "expectation" of BHs, or that I am unfamiliar with statistics.  Going 1:10 on 5*s and 0:30 on BHs are both certainly within the range of probability against a stated 1:8 and 1:20 odds, but I was unlucky, and that wasn't a result I'd have asked for.  I am also informed enough to know that a 31st pull might have given me a 5* with a BH, changing the results into something that I would enjoy, and report to the forum with a smile rather than with a shrug.

(To be honest, the real disappointments are that my Doom is now 4/0/1, and that his Yellow power is the least interesting to me of his three.  Ah well.)

yeah, sorry man. sometimes i type (or talk) without thinking first. i probably came off way too antagonistic. the inequities of random chance in this game favour some and disappoint others. fortunately streaks tend to switch up and fortunes change. the only advice i can give is hoarding. the more pulls you make in a given session the better you chances will be from a volume standpoint.

tonypq

Tonight I pulled about 288 times, got 4 or 5 bonus 5 covers. Also ended up with about a good 10 or so bonus 4 covers. 

Heartbreaksoup

jredd said:

yeah, sorry man. sometimes i type (or talk) without thinking first. i probably came off way too antagonistic. the inequities of random chance in this game favour some and disappoint others. fortunately streaks tend to switch up and fortunes change. the only advice i can give is hoarding. the more pulls you make in a given session the better you chances will be from a volume standpoint.

No worries, friend.  Text alone sometimes does rotten things to the writer's intent. 

dramatist

Opened 20 Latest on the day Hela entered and got 0 5*s. Due to lucky champ levels and a boss event I’ve gotten to open 7 more this week and I’m now 0 for 27.