Token Pull Tracker

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  • cpeyton3535
    cpeyton3535 Posts: 256 Mover and Shaker
    Started tracking Nov 6th.  Of the 61 pulls I've had since that time 4 have been 5*'s.

    Why did I decide to start tracking?  An 0 fer 30 run, that's why.  So I'm closer to 4 for 91.


    I can't think of a QOL improvement I'd like more than a streak-breaker.  Seriously about to chuck my device, blameless though it may be.




  • AXP_isme
    AXP_isme Posts: 809 Critical Contributor
    I’m thinking aloud now but if your draws are already pre-determined, albeit that you don’t know what they are, maybe they actually match the advertised odds  Might it be possible that every queue is the same number x of draws long. Of those x 15% are 5* and the rest a 4*. Those 5* draws could then be distributed randomly amongst your x draws. If you pick a large enough x then you get the illusion of randomness in the draw but you also know that if a player drew all x tokens they would end up with exactly 15% of them being 5*s. It wouldn’t be a very efficient way to code the draws but it gets around any problems where people find a way to re-roll and it means that the odds are fair for everyone when viewed over a long enough time frame. 

    Imagine x is 1 million or more. It would need to be pretty big or it would become obvious over time what was going on. Most people would never get anywhere near drawing all their tokens but even if you did you could just generate another million queue entries following a different randomly generated pattern. 
  • St1nkf1st
    St1nkf1st Posts: 127 Tile Toppler
    So if you're pulling lot's of 5* within a few pulls you are litterally using up your luck and will face a drought more likely since the game prevents you from being "lucky" all the time...
  • jym010
    jym010 Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    I wish they have been tracking mine.  I am 0-20 on getting 5 stars in my latest pulls.  All latest tokens because I can't get a Kitty cover to save my life
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    jym010 said:
    I wish they have been tracking mine.  I am 0-20 on getting 5 stars in my latest pulls.  All latest tokens because I can't get a Kitty cover to save my life
    They track everyone's,  email CS  they may or may not tell you your exact pull rate but they will tell you if you are above or below 15% overall
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,822 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited November 2018
    Here is what is predetermined:  Your next few pulls (not sure how many it goes out, exactly, but I think it's less than 10).  And it's not necessarily "pull Kitty next" as much as "pull Latest #2 next".  (I'm not sure nor will I discuss exactly how its laid out here.)

    At one point, shady folks found a way to re-roll their draws.  So they would open a token, see that it wasn't OML (this was around the time of that meta, IIRC) and execute the cheat to reroll until they saw what they wanted.  Some people may have been penalized for this, but I don't think everyone.  (I think some rosters were rolled back.)  Regardless, the developers finally (after much complaining here and through CS) implemented a system to pre-determine your next few pulls so that you could not just keep re-trying.

    In case you're wondering, the method that was used was not a straight hack (those still happen and are usually found more easily, where people just straight up give themselves covers), but involved some shenanigans with multiple devices, I believe, where the developers couldn't see that it was happening except by looking at rosters that were called out.

    The game is NOT trying to make sure that you are getting a fair rate on those pulls.  It is just setting the pulls up to thwart cheaters who would do whatever they can to make sure they pull more 5's.  The devs DO NOT seem to care right now if you are getting 15% over 100 or 1000 pulls.  Setting this up would take development time, and potentially reduce spending amongst those who can't control their need to get what they want and accept what they get.  And ultimately, the people who care most about their 5* rate are so far into the game that they are basically going nowhere (until, I suppose, they have had enough of the Dark Avengers and Thorkoye).  And as I said earlier, you (the player) need to take initiative and effort to determine what your rate is, which is not something that many players do, to even know how they are doing with their rate.

    Stop trying to fool yourself into thinking that the game is balancing out your draw rate with some hidden mechanism.
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    bluewolf said:
    Here is what is predetermined:  Your next few pulls (not sure how many it goes out, exactly, but I think it's less than 10).
    It's definitely more than 50, most likely a few thousand deep.
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,966 Chairperson of the Boards
    Does anyone have an excel spreadsheet or something that they have made available for others to track pulls?
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,456 Chairperson of the Boards
    the one i use is pretty simple: each token i'm tracking is on a tab, so Classic, Latest (that's all i track, but etc..)
    first column (i am lax on this) Date | Character | Color (and here I have conditional formatting in place to change the cell color to what i type in) | Bonus (i fill this in with an * if it was a bonus, blank if not), and 5* (conditional formatting to turn this purple when the cell contains a *, otherwise blank). It's a pretty simple document really. I occasionally forget because the Google Sheets interface is kind of lame on my phone


  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited December 2018
    Bowgentle said:
    bluewolf said:
    Here is what is predetermined:  Your next few pulls (not sure how many it goes out, exactly, but I think it's less than 10).
    It's definitely more than 50, most likely a few thousand deep.
    I believe the LL pull is determined when you receive an LT, so there's no number to how far it goes.  But I don't think they pre-determine any LL pull you get from spending CP.  I suppose I could test this theory fairly easily. 

    EDIT: tested my theory.  LL pulls from CP are predetermined too. 
  • sinnerjfl
    sinnerjfl Posts: 1,275 Chairperson of the Boards
    bbigler said:
    Bowgentle said:
    bluewolf said:
    Here is what is predetermined:  Your next few pulls (not sure how many it goes out, exactly, but I think it's less than 10).
    It's definitely more than 50, most likely a few thousand deep.
    I believe the LL pull is determined when you receive an LT, so there's no number to how far it goes.  But I don't think they pre-determine any LL pull you get from spending CP.  I suppose I could test this theory fairly easily. 
    I seriously doubt the game makes a distinction between using an LT or CP, probably the same thing to the game. Its just calling whatever function they have programmed either way.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    sinnerjfl said:
    bbigler said:
    Bowgentle said:
    bluewolf said:
    Here is what is predetermined:  Your next few pulls (not sure how many it goes out, exactly, but I think it's less than 10).
    It's definitely more than 50, most likely a few thousand deep.
    I believe the LL pull is determined when you receive an LT, so there's no number to how far it goes.  But I don't think they pre-determine any LL pull you get from spending CP.  I suppose I could test this theory fairly easily. 
    I seriously doubt the game makes a distinction between using an LT or CP, probably the same thing to the game. Its just calling whatever function they have programmed either way.
    The function called would just go through the screen animations and add the cover to your rewards.  I'm sure that it doesn't determine the cover at the moment you cash in the LT or spend the CP.  So, something is happening in the background that pre-determines the covers it would give you for LT or CP.  That part is the mystery.
  • jym010
    jym010 Posts: 108 Tile Toppler
    fmftint said:
    jym010 said:
    I wish they have been tracking mine.  I am 0-20 on getting 5 stars in my latest pulls.  All latest tokens because I can't get a Kitty cover to save my life
    They track everyone's,  email CS  they may or may not tell you your exact pull rate but they will tell you if you are above or below 15% overall
    Right now I am on an 0-27 streak on Latest Legends pulls.
  • ThaRoadWarrior
    ThaRoadWarrior Posts: 9,456 Chairperson of the Boards
    jym010 said:
    fmftint said:
    jym010 said:
    I wish they have been tracking mine.  I am 0-20 on getting 5 stars in my latest pulls.  All latest tokens because I can't get a Kitty cover to save my life
    They track everyone's,  email CS  they may or may not tell you your exact pull rate but they will tell you if you are above or below 15% overall
    Right now I am on an 0-27 streak on Latest Legends pulls.
    It's been my experience from tracking my pulls that whenever I've been dry for 10-15 pulls, I get a clump of 5*s all at once. I'll be curious to know when that streak breaks, how hard it breaks for you. Like last time i went 0:12 in classic, across the subsequent 16 pulls I was 6:16 with a 4* bonus in there. 
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    edited December 2018
    Usually in programming, you use a seed to generate a random sequence. If you know/set the seed, that allows for you to reproduce the same random sequence. In that sense, it’s predetermined but also random (pseudo-random). I would guess that’s what the devs are doing for each of the different token types and BHs.

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