Token Pull Tracker

0_efx_0

Does D3 keep data on what your pulls are from Tokens and CP pulls?

I only ask because, like many others, I have pulled so many(~35) LTs and CP pulls and have gotten NO 5*s.

I would love to see my track record on my pulls, I know it’s sort of my fault for applying them to my roster, but wouldn’t it be nice to see what you have gotten!

fmftint

They do,  but generally will not volunteer that information. 

0_efx_0

Well that’s not nice of them. It would do the whole player community a deal. 

bbigler

I calculated the odds of this happening and it's 0.45378% chance, which is small, but not impossible.  It would happen to 1 out of 220 people, according to the odds.  So, it's not likely to happen, but given how many players open 35+ LL at one time, it's bound to happen to someone.  Sorry. 

EDIT: Out of curiosity, I calculated the odds of pulling sequential 5*s and you're more likely to pull 35 x 4*s in a row than to pull 3 x 5*s in a row.  Has anyone here pulled 3 x 5*s in a row?  The odds are 1 out of 343 attempts, which equates to 1,029 total pulls.

0_efx_0

The sad part is that this time I’m not hoarding...

fmftint

You can try to ticket CS and they might tell you your OVERALL  5 star rate (the 15% era)  


Then they will tell you that your overall rate is within acceptable variance

bbigler

I'll admit that it's frustrating that the most precious resource in the game (5* covers) is given out by chance, which means that the best most-strategic player can still be out-paced by an average-but-lucky player.  Nevertheless, dedication and hard work pay off over time and put you ahead. 

cpeyton3535

Very recently I had an 0-fer ~30 run of no 5's from Latest.  Motivated me to create my own tracker (aka Excel Spreadsheet) which I know a lot of forumites have done.  3 for 32 since with an 0 for 17 run in there.  Pathetic.  

Sick of them being able to hide behind the fact that "it's random".  Maybe it really shouldn't be.  The pulls are 'pre-ordained' we now know.  Use that opportunity to eliminate extended dry spells.  What's the point otherwise?  Running the hamster wheel chasing the most sought after currency (CP and LT's) day after day only to be denied the reward you are really after is frustrating and demoralizing.  I used to enjoy pulling from Latest.  Right now I honestly dread it.  Never been closer to walking away after 2 years of steady play.

Sorry, rant over.  I share the OP's frustration!

0_efx_0

Thanks I may give that a try...I am beyond flabbergasted from my pull rate.

HoundofShadow

I believe that they do track pull rates, as proven in the recent community contests where they asked about the number of Dr Strange BH pulled and the number of Match Damage boost purchased.

I understand the emotions felt when you perform below the expected ~1:7 pull rate. On the side of logic, ~1:7 doesn't necessarily translate to a guaranteed 5* every 7 pulls. The odds don't increase if you didn't pull a 5* on the 6th pull. However, it means that in a large sample size, the pull rate is ~1:7. 

In an old thread:

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/73151/the-great-unhoarding-post-your-draw-rates/p1

where players posted their LT pull rates, someone combined the results of all the players in that thread and the pull rate of 5* in LT is ~1:7. Some players got better than ~1:7 odds, while others were in the same or worse boat than you.

Phumade

bbigler said:

EDIT: Out of curiosity, I calculated the odds of pulling sequential 5*s and you're more likely to pull 35 x 4*s in a row than to pull 3 x 5*s in a row.  Has anyone here pulled 3 x 5*s in a row?  The odds are 1 out of 343 attempts, which equates to 1,029 total pulls.

Yes probably about as often as I've hit 35 4* in a row.  Probably 2 or 3 times total

Jaedenkaal

cpeyton3535 said:

Very recently I had an 0-fer ~30 run of no 5's from Latest.  Motivated me to create my own tracker (aka Excel Spreadsheet) which I know a lot of forumites have done.  3 for 32 since with an 0 for 17 run in there.

Although, that’s kind of run is exactly what you’d expect to see in a truly random set. It’s practically guaranteed.

Random is not even or fair. Which is not to say that I don’t empathize with the op.

BigSoftieFF

I’m sure they’re tired of hearing this but the really need a streak breaker or something. My 5* rate for the YEAR is atrocious and it includes a nice 1/22 spurt when I was trying to roster Wasp.

I’m hoarding until Loki leaves at the moment and you’d think you’d be excited to pull.....but nope, I’m kinda dreading it.

Hadronic

This topic rolls around once every 3 months and i can't help myself. What can I say, I love math. I suggest reading up on probability distribution functions (PDF) and specifically binomial distributions which apply to token pulling statistics.

0_efx_0

Hadronic said:

This topic rolls around once every 3 months and i can't help myself. What can I say, I love math. I suggest reading up on probability distribution functions (PDF) and specifically binomial distributions which apply to token pulling statistics.

Though token pull topics do arise, this one is different; this is actually a way to promote an idea that we all can utilize and appreciate.
A LT and CP token pull statistic would definitely be appreciated by us all. Don’t you think?

dr tinykittylove

Usually I have decent to ridiculous pull rates. 

Last night I went messing around in classics and landed on 1/40... That one being Gambit the Almighty. \o/

Hadronic

0_efx_0 said:

Though token pull topics do arise, this one is different; this is actually a way to promote an idea that we all can utilize and appreciate.
A LT and CP token pull statistic would definitely be appreciated by us all. Don’t you think?

As a fan of math, sure i would like stats.

As the owner of a casino though, no way i would give stats like this out to my end users. In fact if I suspected people of running chi squared analyses in my casino looking for a bias in my roulette wheel i would kick them out of the casino.

HoundofShadow

The other issue I see is that since many players don't have a good understanding of probability, I forsee threads calling the game cheating them of their CP if the devs release individual player's pull stat and their stats turned out to be lower than ~1:7.

Scofie

When Cable entered LL I opened my first "hoard" - I think it was 70 pulls and got three 5*. Since then (and I'm not recording it) I've pulled maybe 40 or so times and have pulled about 16 5* (was roughly 50% at one point). It's good times and bad. Sure it's frustrating and reading the other posts on the Cable thread where people were "only" getting 12% draw rates made me a bit annoyed when I had 5%. But it's a game and nobody died and my 4*s got better for boosted weeks. So I stopped caring pretty quickly. 

The rockett

The biggest issue I see is that we know the number is 15% for a 5*. When they look at your average they will say you are in a health range.  What is a healthy range? What is the +/- that is acceptable?    This is information that nobody knows or can get from them, which I would not expect it to be public.  

I have had many bad pull runs.  The worst was Purple Riegn for Thanos.  2/58.  Almost made me quit the game that day.  I have ally mates since Gambit left the LL that are below 10%. They even asked for information but could not get what there total % was.  Only to be told they are in a healthy range....yes that is the term you will hear a lot.  

I do believe this information should be available to use for our account.  

Bowgentle

The rockett said:

I do believe this information should be available to use for our account.  

And then what?
Everyone who is below 15% will put in CS tickets, even the people who only draw one LT like every 5 days.

CS can't handle that volume.