Token Pull Tracker

AXP_isme

I don’t see any good coming from knowing your own distribution. You wouldn’t want to give back any covers if you were above the average so why would you expect to be made good if you were below. 

What I would be interested to see would be a distribution of distributions. That would provide some interesting meta-views of how the covers are falling. It might also make some people feel a bit better if they knew that x% of the playerbase has even worse luck than them (so to speak). 

Hadronic

The rockett said:

The biggest issue I see is that we know the number is 15% for a 5*. When they look at your average they will say you are in a health range.  What is a healthy range? What is the +/- that is acceptable?    This is information that nobody knows or can get from them, which I would not expect it to be public.  

I have had many bad pull runs.  The worst was Purple Riegn for Thanos.  2/58.  Almost made me quit the game that day.  I have ally mates since Gambit left the LL that are below 10%. They even asked for information but could not get what there total % was.  Only to be told they are in a healthy range....yes that is the term you will hear a lot.  

I do believe this information should be available to use for our account.  

I'm gonna guess that healthy range is within 3 standard deviations. 

0_efx_0

It feels like I’ve been banned from acquiring 5 stars. I contacted costumer support and I got the copy and pasted message of my pull rate being above average! What’s the percentage? What number is that? 
Im am so upset and so close to tossing my phone at the wall every time I don’t get that purple logo in LT! I have opened so many! It’s crazy! Well I may call it quits and spend my time somewhere else and begin a new hobby...

bbigler

Hadronic said:

As a fan of math, sure i would like stats.

As the owner of a casino though, no way i would give stats like this out to my end users. In fact if I suspected people of running chi squared analyses in my casino looking for a bias in my roulette wheel i would kick them out of the casino.

So, only dumb people are allowed in casinos then? Sorry, that sounds harsh. So, only overly optimistic people who aren't good at math or logic are allowed in casinos then?

bbigler

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later. It's both illogical and logical at the same time. Honestly, you probably need a sample size of at least 10,000 pulls to nearly gaurantee a 1:7 pull rate. 

I once played this slot machine program that came with windows 3.1. With each pull you set a bet amount. By using my method of increasing my bet amounts based on streaks of bad luck, I was able to steadily increase my game money. There were still huge fluctuations in my money, but there was a steady increase. I thought this insight might help here. 

DFiPL

bbigler said:

I calculated the odds of this happening and it's 0.45378% chance, which is small, but not impossible.  It would happen to 1 out of 220 people, according to the odds.  So, it's not likely to happen, but given how many players open 35+ LL at one time, it's bound to happen to someone.  Sorry. 

EDIT: Out of curiosity, I calculated the odds of pulling sequential 5*s and you're more likely to pull 35 x 4*s in a row than to pull 3 x 5*s in a row.  Has anyone here pulled 3 x 5*s in a row?  The odds are 1 out of 343 attempts, which equates to 1,029 total pulls.

I had 5 or 6 in a row, once.

Pants1000

bbigler said:

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later.

This is wrong, but a very common misconception.  The odds of pulling a 5* from a LT are the same no matter what your previous pulls were.  Most token pulls are like this, except for vaults, where pulls are eliminated from potential future pulls.

Quebbster

bbigler said:

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later. It's both illogical and logical at the same time. Honestly, you probably need a sample size of at least 10,000 pulls to nearly gaurantee a 1:7 pull rate. 

I once played this slot machine program that came with windows 3.1. With each pull you set a bet amount. By using my method of increasing my bet amounts based on streaks of bad luck, I was able to steadily increase my game money. There were still huge fluctuations in my money, but there was a steady increase. I thought this insight might help here. 

The Dice have no memory, unfortunately. You are right that you will sometimes have bad streaks and good streaks, but having a bad streak in no way increases the probability of a good streak. There is no Cosmic luck Agency making sure everyone gets the same amount of bad or good luck.

Regarding casinos, I Heard a story about a statistics Conference that was held in Las Vegas. When they left they were politely informed that they should find Another venue for next year as the didn't gamble nearly enough - they understood the odds too well.

Alfje17

DFiPL said:

bbigler said:

I calculated the odds of this happening and it's 0.45378% chance, which is small, but not impossible.  It would happen to 1 out of 220 people, according to the odds.  So, it's not likely to happen, but given how many players open 35+ LL at one time, it's bound to happen to someone.  Sorry. 

EDIT: Out of curiosity, I calculated the odds of pulling sequential 5*s and you're more likely to pull 35 x 4*s in a row than to pull 3 x 5*s in a row.  Has anyone here pulled 3 x 5*s in a row?  The odds are 1 out of 343 attempts, which equates to 1,029 total pulls.

I had 5 or 6 in a row, once.

Best I had was 3 5*, one 4*, then 4 5*. It was quite a while before I pulled another 5* after that so it all evened out. My last 310 LTs got me 50 5* (16%, so slightly better than the 1:7), so the odds seem quite correct.

bbigler

Pants1000 said:

bbigler said:

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later.

This is wrong, but a very common misconception.  The odds of pulling a 5* from a LT are the same no matter what your previous pulls were.  Most token pulls are like this, except for vaults, where pulls are eliminated from potential future pulls.

This is why I said it's both logical and illogical. Because each pull is independent and is not affected by previous pulls, it's illogical to think your bad luck increases your chances of good luck.  BUT......over time with enough pulls it must even out, and the only way for it to even out is to have good streaks as well. So, in this way, it is logical that your odds increase after streaks of bad luck. 
It may take 100 pulls or 1000 pulls or even 10,000 pulls for it to even out, but it always will over time. With a large enough sample size, randomness becomes predictable. 

AXP_isme

bbigler said:

Pants1000 said:

bbigler said:

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later.

This is wrong, but a very common misconception.  The odds of pulling a 5* from a LT are the same no matter what your previous pulls were.  Most token pulls are like this, except for vaults, where pulls are eliminated from potential future pulls.

This is why I said it's both logical and illogical. Because each pull is independent and is not affected by previous pulls, it's illogical to think your bad luck increases your chances of good luck.  BUT......over time with enough pulls it must even out, and the only way for it to even out is to have good streaks as well. So, in this way, it is logical that your odds increase after streaks of bad luck. 
It may take 100 pulls or 1000 pulls or even 10,000 pulls for it to even out, but it always will over time. With a large enough sample size, randomness becomes predictable. 

I think there may be a bit of a misunderstanding here. As others have said above the universe won’t pay back your bad luck with good luck, even in the long run. Randomness doesn’t become predictable, each individual instance is still random but with the outcomes distributed in a certain way. Each draw is still random so you could draw a 5* 10,000 times in a row. You won’t, but you could. Your past draws have no effect on your future draws so you can’t really make a call to mean reversion here either. 

You can can assume that your next run of luck is as likely to be good as it is bad but one is no more likely an outcome than the other. At the end of the day you get some good luck and you get some bad luck.

People have a tendency to place a disproportionately high weighting on what they consider to be losses over what they consider to be gains so you feel worse when you have bad luck because you feel like you’re losing out and falling behind. You have to try and chalk it up to experience and move on. It’s not easy but if you don’t, you just end up carrying a lot of resentment that you may never be able to unwind. Even with an equivalent amount of good luck it won’t generate an offsetting amount of good feeling so you’re better off trying not to feel bad in the first place. 

I know i’m mixing the language of probability with that of emotion but this is as much about perception - in fact much more so - as it is about probabilities. 

ThaRoadWarrior

I started tracking mine in a google doc around August this year since I was curious. I have a tab for Classic, and tab for Latest. That let's me keep my cognitive bias in check for feeling double-dry when I'm on a slow streak out of both. Occasionally i've been up over 10 pulls out of 1 or the other (I'm in such a trough right now in fact in Latest - still no Cable for me), but a losing streak like that is almost always broken by a string of good pulls. I don't keep the list to get angry at them, just to keep a bit of a tab in my head on when I'm "about due" to see a 5* come in. I also track bonus heroes in there with a column, though I find I mostly get those from the special PVP stores more than the legendary stores, and I don't track those.

Alphateam

cpeyton3535 said:

Very recently I had an 0-fer ~30 run of no 5's from Latest.  Motivated me to create my own tracker (aka Excel Spreadsheet) which I know a lot of forumites have done.  3 for 32 since with an 0 for 17 run in there.  Pathetic.  

Sick of them being able to hide behind the fact that "it's random".  Maybe it really shouldn't be.  The pulls are 'pre-ordained' we now know.  Use that opportunity to eliminate extended dry spells.  What's the point otherwise?  Running the hamster wheel chasing the most sought after currency (CP and LT's) day after day only to be denied the reward you are really after is frustrating and demoralizing.  I used to enjoy pulling from Latest.  Right now I honestly dread it.  Never been closer to walking away after 2 years of steady play.

Sorry, rant over.  I share the OP's frustration!

It is random, but yet also pre-ordained. Some human doesn't sit and create the exact order in which  you will get the covers, an algoritim does it. So yes its random at the time of creation. If you didn't know it by all appearances it would be random, because it is. 

Alphateam

bbigler said:

Pants1000 said:

bbigler said:

There's a funny thing about probabilities: if you have a streak of bad luck, then you become more likely to have a streak of good luck in the future because it must even out over time. The only factor is how long will it take to even out. So, I take some solace from knowing that my bad luck now increases my chance of good luck later.

This is wrong, but a very common misconception.  The odds of pulling a 5* from a LT are the same no matter what your previous pulls were.  Most token pulls are like this, except for vaults, where pulls are eliminated from potential future pulls.

This is why I said it's both logical and illogical. Because each pull is independent and is not affected by previous pulls, it's illogical to think your bad luck increases your chances of good luck.  BUT......over time with enough pulls it must even out, and the only way for it to even out is to have good streaks as well. So, in this way, it is logical that your odds increase after streaks of bad luck. 
It may take 100 pulls or 1000 pulls or even 10,000 pulls for it to even out, but it always will over time. With a large enough sample size, randomness becomes predictable. 

Thats not how it works. If you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting an item its possible to get the 1 item every time or never at all. While highly improbable, it is possible. So there is no "even out" period with enough pulls. While the hills and valleys will be less noticeable it won't just even out because. 

bbigler

Alphateam said:

This is why I said it's both logical and illogical. Because each pull is independent and is not affected by previous pulls, it's illogical to think your bad luck increases your chances of good luck.  BUT......over time with enough pulls it must even out, and the only way for it to even out is to have good streaks as well. So, in this way, it is logical that your odds increase after streaks of bad luck. 
It may take 100 pulls or 1000 pulls or even 10,000 pulls for it to even out, but it always will over time. With a large enough sample size, randomness becomes predictable. 

Thats not how it works. If you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting an item its possible to get the 1 item every time or never at all. While highly improbable, it is possible. So there is no "even out" period with enough pulls. While the hills and valleys will be less noticeable it won't just even out because. 

It does even out, that's probability math. If you flip a coin 1 million times, then there's like a 99% chance the results will be close to 500k heads and 500k tails. Take any random test to infinity and it WILL even out.

Quebbster

bbigler said:

Alphateam said:

This is why I said it's both logical and illogical. Because each pull is independent and is not affected by previous pulls, it's illogical to think your bad luck increases your chances of good luck.  BUT......over time with enough pulls it must even out, and the only way for it to even out is to have good streaks as well. So, in this way, it is logical that your odds increase after streaks of bad luck. 
It may take 100 pulls or 1000 pulls or even 10,000 pulls for it to even out, but it always will over time. With a large enough sample size, randomness becomes predictable. 

Thats not how it works. If you have a 1 in 10 chance of getting an item its possible to get the 1 item every time or never at all. While highly improbable, it is possible. So there is no "even out" period with enough pulls. While the hills and valleys will be less noticeable it won't just even out because. 

It does even out, that's probability math. If you flip a coin 1 million times, then there's like a 99% chance the results will be close to 500k heads and 500k tails. Take any random test to infinity and it WILL even out.

Define "Close" please. There's a reason statistics talks a lot about standard deviations, after all. Unlikely things happen all the time, just not as often as the likely things.

Hadronic

Saying it evens out gives the wrong impression and its not the best way to think about it.

I will use coin flips as an example since they are easy

total = N
probability = p = 1/2
mean = Np = N/2
sigma = sqrt(Np(1-p)) = sqrt(N)/2

here we can see that the width (sigma)  of the distribution is growing, although more slowly than the mean. 

what bbigler is trying to say is that in the limit N->inf the fraction approaches 1/2

fraction = (mean +- sigma) / total  = (N/2 +- sqrt(N)/2) / N  = 1/2 +- 1/(2sqrt(N))

but in this same limit the sigma approaches infinity, just slower than the total. I wouldn't call this evening out, an example:

flip 100 coins
50 +- 5
lets say you only pull 45 (1 sigma below the mean)
fraction is 45%
significance = -1

flip 1million coins
500k +- 500
lets say your luck got worse and you pull 499k (2 sigma below the mean)
fraction is now 49.9%
significance = -2

yes, the fraction is closer to 50% even though your deviation from the mean has doubled. Bottom line is, fraction is a horrible indicator of results and instead one should use significance. While the fraction is guaranteed to approach 1/2 there is no such guarantee on the significance. 

bbigler

I don't want to keep this discussion going, but I have one last thing to say. This is mostly an argument of semantics. I should have said, "over time, the results should approach the calculated odds". It's not gauranteed, but it's likely. So, after having a bad streak, you're more likely to have a good streak instead of another bad streak. It's not gauranteed, just more likely. I can't put a % chance on it, but infinite token pulls should have an equal amount of good and bad streaks so that it approaches the stated odds. 

So, my hope rests on the likelihood of getting a good streak after a bad one. Of course, you're attitude towards the matter makes no difference in what you actually get. But this helps me have a better attitude. 

Jaedenkaal

bbigler said:

I don't want to keep this discussion going, but I have one last thing to say. This is mostly an argument of semantics. I should have said, "over time, the results should approach the calculated odds". It's not gauranteed, but it's likely. So, after having a bad streak, you're more likely to have a good streak instead of another bad streak. It's not gauranteed, just more likely. I can't put a % chance on it, but infinite token pulls should have an equal amount of good and bad streaks so that it approaches the stated odds. 

No, sorry, it's not semantic at all; that's still 100% gambler's fallacy. Your bad luck in the past, which is no longer probability and is now simply history, has no impact in any way on your probabilistic odds in the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

bbigler said:

So, my hope rests on the likelihood of getting a good streak after a bad one. Of course, you're attitude towards the matter makes no difference in what you actually get. But this helps me have a better attitude. 

Well, you can certainly carry on in the hope that your future luck will be better than your past bad luck, which on average it will be, but you must also be aware that your future luck will not be better than average simply because you've had bad luck in the past.

Daredevil217

Jaedenkaal said:

bbigler said:

I don't want to keep this discussion going, but I have one last thing to say. This is mostly an argument of semantics. I should have said, "over time, the results should approach the calculated odds". It's not gauranteed, but it's likely. So, after having a bad streak, you're more likely to have a good streak instead of another bad streak. It's not gauranteed, just more likely. I can't put a % chance on it, but infinite token pulls should have an equal amount of good and bad streaks so that it approaches the stated odds. 

No, sorry, it's not semantic at all; that's still 100% gambler's fallacy. Your bad luck in the past, which is no longer probability and is now simply history, has no impact in any way on your probabilistic odds in the future.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Gambler's_fallacy

bbigler said:

So, my hope rests on the likelihood of getting a good streak after a bad one. Of course, you're attitude towards the matter makes no difference in what you actually get. But this helps me have a better attitude. 

Well, you can certainly carry on in the hope that your future luck will be better than your past bad luck, which on average it will be, but you must also be aware that your future luck will not be better than average simply because you've had bad luck in the past.

This is all true.  I'm a pessimist so my fallacy is that every time I pull poorly, the "evening out" is someone else is getting all the good pulls, lol.  I know that past luck has no bearing on the future and that other people's luck in no way impacts my own.  But I still choose believe it anyway.