Hoarding packs?

Gunmix25
Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
in MtGPQ General Discussion
So I've only been a member of this forum for a short while and in that time I've seen a statement that pops up a lot, "players hoarding packs." While I know that if a player purchases a larger pack of cards,  the Chance of a mythic increases.... so here's my stupid question.  If a player holds onto say.... all his Kaladesh card packs that he or she earned through various methods, say 10 packs.  Does that mean the player's odds of gaining a mythic or rare are guaranteed as if the player purchased two premium packs? or are the odds just as bad as opening one at a time? In advance I apologize for my ignorance, if any,  I'm under the impression that purchased cards have better odds than cards gained.... but this forum is hinting that this isn't the case but by how many packs you're opening at once.  
«13

Comments

  • Laeuftbeidir
    Laeuftbeidir Posts: 1,841 Chairperson of the Boards
    They have exactly the same odds of getting rares or mythics. The only difference is : when a new set is released, all the exclusive cards become available in the packs, so there are more rares and mythics possible to get.
    The guaranteed rare of a pp is given separately, so you can't compare opening five packs to one pp
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    Laeuftbeidir said:
    They have exactly the same odds of getting rares or mythics. The only difference is : when a new set is released, all the exclusive cards become available in the packs, so there are more rares and mythics possible to get.
    The guaranteed rare of a pp is given separately, so you can't compare opening five packs to one pp
    That makes a lot of sense and to the why's of it. Thanks for the explanation. 
  • parasith77
    parasith77 Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
    I am sitting on 120 Kaladesh packs and can't wait to open them when all mythics are available  ;)

    Maybe i will wait a few days after the new set is released because i read somewhere in the forums that there is a lower chance to get a mythic right after a new release. Maybe thats not right but i will do so.
  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
    There are people with over 200 packs - a quick question to all you people hoarding packs, could you please use a screen recorder to record your opening, for a couple of reasons:
    Drop rates data 
    And others' viewing entertainment. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    parasith77 said:

    i read somewhere in the forums that there is a lower chance to get a mythic right after a new release.
    The theory has indeed been put forward before, but it's so far unsupported by evidence.

    But as THEMAGICkMAN says, recording the results of opening our hoarded packs will provide data which may be used exactly to test theories such as this one!  Basically, there's no such thing as too much data - the more, the better.


  • THEMAGICkMAN
    THEMAGICkMAN Posts: 697 Critical Contributor
    Also, I want to commend these people who hoard packs, it takes an amazing amount of self control to not open packs. I've been trying to save up mine... Didn't last long. 

    (Also, thanks @Volrak for getting my name perfect! You're one of the first! XD) 
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,959 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have 50 saved. Ehhh. It's easy when you get dupes after dupes. I have most of the set,  other than the mythics and masterpieces (only missing 3 rares), so even if I opened all 50, the chance of getting new cards that will benefit my collection is pretty slim. Plus, out of the only cards  I have left to collect, only a select few will improve my decks in any significant way - lightning runner, marionette master, Dynavolt Tower and a couple of others. 
  • shteev
    shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
    Mainloop25 said:
    I have 50 saved. Ehhh. It's easy when you get dupes after dupes. I have most of the set,  other than the mythics and masterpieces (only missing 3 rares), so even if I opened all 50, the chance of getting new cards that will benefit my collection is pretty slim. Plus, out of the only cards  I have left to collect, only a select few will improve my decks in any significant way - lightning runner, marionette master, Dynavolt Tower and a couple of others. 
    Yeah, I think Lightning Runner is the only current mythic that will make a significant difference to me, although it should really help me clear PvP levels in <5 rounds with energize... seriously, is there any way to do this consistently without LR?? Even the mighty Baral lets me down on those!! And when I open my 70+ or so packs, I reckon that'll get me about 1 masterpiece? I think I can wait for that.
  • morgue427
    morgue427 Posts: 783 Critical Contributor
    i know been waiting for that dam lightning runner too and solemn recruit only 2 i really want and the one masterpiece will be champions helm lol, really isnt bad honestly helps in my gideon deck just to keep new defenders alive
  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    I've been hunting down that lightning runner for months and I keep getting dupes of the mythics I already have... not including the event rewards of which I've none. From what I've gathered in past forum posts and heck... even.mine own experience... Lightning runner is dang near at a masterpiece level of rarity. Even in QB I rarely encounter this card.
  • Mainloop25
    Mainloop25 Posts: 1,959 Chairperson of the Boards
    There are people in my coalition with dupe LR's. Who knows
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Gunmix25 said:
    I've been hunting down that lightning runner for months and I keep getting dupes of the mythics I already have... not including the event rewards of which I've none. From what I've gathered in past forum posts and heck... even.mine own experience... Lightning runner is dang near at a masterpiece level of rarity. Even in QB I rarely encounter this card.
    Personally, I notice LR in QB far more often than most non-exclusive AER mythics, because it's a great card for QB.  I see it less often than some mythics from other sets though, which is exactly what I'd expect, given that all of those other sets have been available for longer.

    I also certainly hear far more people talk about not having Lightning Runner, and how they wish they did, than people saying the same things about, say, Yahenni.  But that's also exactly what I'd expect, given that LR is more sought after.

    Regardless of individual observations, LR is not "rarer" than comparable mythics.  Anonymous player collection data from mtgpq.info in March sees 20 instances of Lightning Runner in players' collections, compared to an average non-exclusive AER mythic count of 18.6.

  • Avacyn
    Avacyn Posts: 89 Match Maker
    edited April 2017

    I only save up to about 30 packs before I feel the urge of opening them all at once. and Lightning Runner is among the most mythic copies from AER I have, along with Yahenni. (3 copies so far)

    Honestly, LR is the reason why my interest for this game reignited. I wouldn't have played as much as I have now if it wasn't for him. Wish you all luck on getting your own copy. his loads of fun. and that what gaming is about; having fun.

  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    Volrak said:
    Gunmix25 said:
    I've been hunting down that lightning runner for months and I keep getting dupes of the mythics I already have... not including the event rewards of which I've none. From what I've gathered in past forum posts and heck... even.mine own experience... Lightning runner is dang near at a masterpiece level of rarity. Even in QB I rarely encounter this card.
    Personally, I notice LR in QB far more often than most non-exclusive AER mythics, because it's a great card for QB.  I see it less often than some mythics from other sets though, which is exactly what I'd expect, given that all of those other sets have been available for longer.

    I also certainly hear far more people talk about not having Lightning Runner, and how they wish they did, than people saying the same things about, say, Yahenni.  But that's also exactly what I'd expect, given that LR is more sought after.

    Regardless of individual observations, LR is not "rarer" than comparable mythics.  Anonymous player collection data from mtgpq.info in March sees 20 instances of Lightning Runner in players' collections, compared to an average non-exclusive AER mythic count of 18.6.

    I agree completely,  i know that rariy rates don't really change and it is more the bad luck of the draw than anything. I was being facetious but failed in making that clear.  The one card that ticks me off as a dupe... is not even a mythic, but a rare. the Maul fist Door buster, good lord....drawn him at least no less than 20+ times.  I'm sure others have their curse card too. It is the luck or bad luck of the draw after all 
  • Scotcamp
    Scotcamp Posts: 70 Match Maker
    I'm hoarding my packs too.  I expect to crack them when the next set releases.  Then I will convert all my dupes to runes for the deck slots. 
  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards
    shteev said:
    Mainloop25 said:
    I have 50 saved. Ehhh. It's easy when you get dupes after dupes. I have most of the set,  other than the mythics and masterpieces (only missing 3 rares), so even if I opened all 50, the chance of getting new cards that will benefit my collection is pretty slim. Plus, out of the only cards  I have left to collect, only a select few will improve my decks in any significant way - lightning runner, marionette master, Dynavolt Tower and a couple of others. 
    Yeah, I think Lightning Runner is the only current mythic that will make a significant difference to me, although it should really help me clear PvP levels in <5 rounds with energize... seriously, is there any way to do this consistently without LR?? Even the mighty Baral lets me down on those!! And when I open my 70+ or so packs, I reckon that'll get me about 1 masterpiece? I think I can wait for that.

    I like your misguided confidence that you will likely receive a masterpiece. Their have been nearly 6000 cards opened and recorded on the drop rates page with a total of 0 masterpieces so far.  I just wouldn't get your hopes up if you are only opening 250 cards or so my friend.
  • shteev
    shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
    babar3355 said:
    shteev said:
    Mainloop25 said:
    I have 50 saved. Ehhh. It's easy when you get dupes after dupes. I have most of the set,  other than the mythics and masterpieces (only missing 3 rares), so even if I opened all 50, the chance of getting new cards that will benefit my collection is pretty slim. Plus, out of the only cards  I have left to collect, only a select few will improve my decks in any significant way - lightning runner, marionette master, Dynavolt Tower and a couple of others. 
    Yeah, I think Lightning Runner is the only current mythic that will make a significant difference to me, although it should really help me clear PvP levels in <5 rounds with energize... seriously, is there any way to do this consistently without LR?? Even the mighty Baral lets me down on those!! And when I open my 70+ or so packs, I reckon that'll get me about 1 masterpiece? I think I can wait for that.

    I like your misguided confidence that you will likely receive a masterpiece. Their have been nearly 6000 cards opened and recorded on the drop rates page with a total of 0 masterpieces so far.  I just wouldn't get your hopes up if you are only opening 250 cards or so my friend.
    Last time we recorded the monthly super packs on facebook, out of 39 super packs, we got:
    * 22 Rares
    * 10 Mythics
    * 2 Masterpieces

    https://www.facebook.com/groups/897507373677820/permalink/1256796224415598/
    (It's a closed group, but we'll pretty much let anyone in ;))

    What's this drop rates page you are referring to? Does it include free packs? Free packs almost certainly have a worse drop rate than other boosters. They certainly used to.


  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards

    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=1436311267


  • shteev
    shteev Posts: 2,031 Chairperson of the Boards
    I should probably add at this point that whilst I haven't personally added the results of my limited poll to the drop rates page, it's highly possible that some of the many players who took part have done so themselves, and so I don't think the results of my poll should henceforth be added to the drop rates page.
  • babar3355
    babar3355 Posts: 1,128 Chairperson of the Boards

    Yeah, the only way to do this accurately is to be systematic.  If we can get a few hundred thousand opened cards logged we can have a really strong predictive scale. I plan on opening my 120ish packs and logging each card in here... should be exciting lol


Categories