(Now 0 for 73) - Devs, is the system working as you intend?

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  • chaos01
    chaos01 Posts: 316 Mover and Shaker
    All I can say is hang in there. I was on a 0 for 64 run. Last 5 LT have produced 4 5 stars.
  • Hendross
    Hendross Posts: 762 Critical Contributor
    OneLastGambit wrote:
    This discussion reminds me of that scene in casino when de niro complains to the chef that the blueberry muffins don't all have an equal number of blueberries in them

    or, maybe we all have different size muffins.
  • stochasticism
    stochasticism Posts: 1,181 Chairperson of the Boards
    Cthulhu wrote:
    Hey All,

    We are definitely looking into this and while we don't have any answers just yet, we are reviewing and will have a plan very very soon!

    icon_captainamerica.png Cthulhu icon_captainamerica.png

    Cthulu, it's been a week now. Any updates to share?
  • SpaceBearPig
    SpaceBearPig Posts: 83 Match Maker
    Hearthstone has a decent system for this. Every 40 card packs you are sure to get a legendary. Your chances go up with each pack as well and resets once you pull a legendary. Do not see why a similar system can't be implemented in MPQ.
  • ThatOneGuyjp189512
    ThatOneGuyjp189512 Posts: 543 Critical Contributor
    the biggest problem is that the devs keep saying there's a 10% draw rate on 5*'s in L-Tokens, this is not true, it says so right in the draw rate page. It actually says 3.3% for 5*'s per draw, if it was a 10% draw rate, then statistically you'd get 1 every 10 draws like clockwork. The 10% draw rate the devs keep highlighting is definitely not what most people get, 3.3% per draw would get you 33 5*'s for every 1000 L-Token draws you did. The worst part is that they keep adding 5*'s to the game and the drought's only gonna get worse, they'll be adding BSS to the classic tokens and adding IM and Cap to the latest thereby diluting the draw rate even further to 2.5% per draw which is just....stupid.
  • Keegan
    Keegan Posts: 284 Mover and Shaker
    ThatOneGuyjp189512 wrote:
    if it was a 10% draw rate, then statistically you'd get 1 every 10 draws like clockwork.

    Every draw is a statistically independent event. Every time you draw, you have x.x% chance of drawing a particular cover, no matter how many times you pull.
  • DC1972
    DC1972 Posts: 77 Match Maker
    Cthulhu wrote:
    Hey All,

    We are definitely looking into this and while we don't have any answers just yet, we are reviewing and will have a plan very very soon!

    icon_captainamerica.png Cthulhu icon_captainamerica.png

    Has anyone else heard anything else about this even if just rumors? Depending on how you look at things I am either very lucky or very unlucky.

    Pull a 5* from 20CP LT so technically I am 100% on my last draw. Then with the next 34 LTs being 4* I become 1/35 (2.85%). Next draw is another 5* so I am 1/35 again or 2/36 (5.55%) depending on how you count. Another 0/32 streak and 5* on 33rd draw. So am I now 1/1 (100%), 1/33 (3%), 2/34 (5.9%), or 3/69 (4.3%). Not as bad as o for 73 but if changes are going to be made I may wait until opening anymore LT.
  • Eddiemon
    Eddiemon Posts: 1,470 Chairperson of the Boards
    ThatOneGuyjp189512 wrote:
    the biggest problem is that the devs keep saying there's a 10% draw rate on 5*'s in L-Tokens, this is not true, it says so right in the draw rate page. It actually says 3.3% for 5*'s per draw, if it was a 10% draw rate, then statistically you'd get 1 every 10 draws like clockwork. The 10% draw rate the devs keep highlighting is definitely not what most people get, 3.3% per draw would get you 33 5*'s for every 1000 L-Token draws you did.

    I know you're probably struggling with math, but 10% divided by 3 would be 3.33333333333....% which in two significant digits would be represented by 3.3% even though the .0333333333.....% is present.

    3.3% pre draw would get you 33 goblins per 1,000 and 33 spidermen and 33 pheonixes and an extra 1 of the 3 because when you add the 0.03333333..%s for the 3 together you get 0.1% which is another cover. And 100 out of 1,000 is 10%.

    Now those are averages, because a 3.3% chance does not mean you absolutely will get 33 in 1000, it mean on average you will get 33 in 1,000, but your specific 1,000 could contain 50 covers or 24.
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited May 2016
    Cthulhu wrote:
    Hey All,

    We are definitely looking into this and while we don't have any answers just yet, we are reviewing and will have a plan very very soon!

    icon_captainamerica.png Cthulhu icon_captainamerica.png
    After 3 weeks I have to ask, how soon is "very very soon"?
  • Howzat
    Howzat Posts: 31
    I'd even be happy with 12% of plan.
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    Not nearly as bad as the OP but I'm in a 0-31 streak myself, 27-301, 8.9% overall
  • LordXberk
    LordXberk Posts: 252 Mover and Shaker
    Bowgentle wrote:
    Cthulhu wrote:
    Hey All,

    We are definitely looking into this and while we don't have any answers just yet, we are reviewing and will have a plan very very soon!

    icon_captainamerica.png Cthulhu icon_captainamerica.png
    After 3 weeks I have to ask, how soon is "very very soon"?


    Let me second this request and ask if we'll know before the Legendary token odds are changed after the completion of the second run of Civil War? Could certainly impact how I spend my CPs before the Classics LTs get diluted.

    On the other hand, just bcs they said they'd have a plan 'very very soon' doesn't mean they're sharing that plan 'very very soon.'
  • Chief270
    Chief270 Posts: 137
    DarkWalkerWP wrote:
    Currently 0 for 68. My last 5* draw was the first day goblin was available.
    Upvoted for empathy.

    I went 0-92 before landing one. Which, if their math is correct, has about a 0.006% chance of happening (or ~ 1 in 16400 chance)

    Then got another one 2 draws later. Currently 0-7 since.
  • MarvelMan
    MarvelMan Posts: 1,350
    I was on a pretty miserable streak, though not as bad as some here. I had two out of 87, but both were SS black so worse than a 4* to me (*just* covered IceIceBobby so I would have traded both those SS for his covers). And then I pulled an OML! Yeah, it made me 3 for 88, which is still pretty darn bad but its better than 2/88.

    I really feel like they should have a draw check, where you can only pull 25 before a guaranteed 5*. Some way to even out the wrath of the RNGesus a bit. I mean, what did I do to have such bad karma? Yeah, I kick pyromantic every chance I get, but so does everyone else.
  • archmag
    archmag Posts: 25
    I have a perfect 10%: 11 5* out of 110 tokens. Longest streak without one was in the very beginning up to 28th token when I got red OML.
  • justplainchips
    justplainchips Posts: 133 Tile Toppler
    Howzat wrote:
    I'd even be happy with 12% of plan.
    Which in Demiurge's reality would really work out to about 5% of a plan. icon_e_wink.gif
  • Ctenko
    Ctenko Posts: 218 Tile Toppler
    Eddiemon wrote:
    ThatOneGuyjp189512 wrote:
    the biggest problem is that the devs keep saying there's a 10% draw rate on 5*'s in L-Tokens, this is not true, it says so right in the draw rate page. It actually says 3.3% for 5*'s per draw, if it was a 10% draw rate, then statistically you'd get 1 every 10 draws like clockwork. The 10% draw rate the devs keep highlighting is definitely not what most people get, 3.3% per draw would get you 33 5*'s for every 1000 L-Token draws you did.

    I know you're probably struggling with math, but 10% divided by 3 would be 3.33333333333....% which in two significant digits would be represented by 3.3% even though the .0333333333.....% is present.

    3.3% pre draw would get you 33 goblins per 1,000 and 33 spidermen and 33 pheonixes and an extra 1 of the 3 because when you add the 0.03333333..%s for the 3 together you get 0.1% which is another cover. And 100 out of 1,000 is 10%.

    Now those are averages, because a 3.3% chance does not mean you absolutely will get 33 in 1000, it mean on average you will get 33 in 1,000, but your specific 1,000 could contain 50 covers or 24.

    Or 0.
  • dsds
    dsds Posts: 526
    Why don't they just do this. For every 10 you open, it is a guaranteed 5*. You open one and then they have a counter saying 9 more legendary covers to go, congrats on your awesome hulk!
  • Keegan
    Keegan Posts: 284 Mover and Shaker
    dsds wrote:
    Why don't they just do this. For every 10 you open, it is a guaranteed 5*. You open one and then they have a counter saying 9 more legendary covers to go, congrats on your awesome hulk!

    Because people are more psychologically motivated and rewarded by luck. The system that you described is psychologically perceived as work, and people don't like work ("Oh man, seven more pulls until I get a 5* after all the work I did for this token/CP, this isn't worth is, blah blah"). Chance feels better to our brains.
  • Linkster79
    Linkster79 Posts: 1,037 Chairperson of the Boards
    Keegan wrote:
    dsds wrote:
    Why don't they just do this. For every 10 you open, it is a guaranteed 5*. You open one and then they have a counter saying 9 more legendary covers to go, congrats on your awesome hulk!

    Because people are more psychologically motivated and rewarded by luck. The system that you described is psychologically perceived as work, and people don't like work ("Oh man, seven more pulls until I get a 5* after all the work I did for this token/CP, this isn't worth is, blah blah"). Chance feels better to our brains.

    Having opened over 100 tokens and only pulling 1 5* character I can assure you chance is not feeling better in my brain, it has come to the stage now I have given up even trying for command points and Legendary tokens. Roll on end of season so I can leave my alliance and go back to a game of skill and actually be rewarded by putting in the effort that targeted EV training takes. VGC 2016 rules seem like fun for those like me who like to play the uber tier.

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