Player survey of 5* pulled from LTs

Unknown
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edited May 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
This is a companion thread to my analysis of increasing inequality in 5* results from LT draws (viewtopic.php?f=7&t=38044).

I hear a lot of people posting about very poor draw records (and some abysmally bad) and far, far fewer posting exceptionally good. That's not surprising in itself, since it seems reasonable that people would be more willing to vent their frustrations than to brag about their successes. Maybe we're just very humble. And yet, there's been some questioning in some threads about how random the the RNG actually is. Let's gather some numbers. If there's no reason to believe in conspiratorial thinking, we should stamp it out. If there is some odd distribution, we should try to figure out why that is.

A lot of this information has already been posted, but, again, often in the many negative threads about bad draws. I want to gather it all in one place, in a neutral context.

I'll need more than just the draw rate. Please post:

1. The total number of LTs you've ever opened. Try to determine this number as best as you can.
2. Enter the total number of 5* covers drawn (count all covers, including redundant covers over 5).
3. (New) Indicate how closely you've kept track of your draws. If you're sure of 1 & 2 because you've kept a precise tally, let me know.

If there is sufficient interest, I will collate the numbers in a few days and we can see whether we can learn anything from it. If anything, I hope to quell fears that the RNG is off.
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Comments

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Posting this one last time before shutting up, I promise icon_e_wink.gif

    5/110.
  • Linkster79
    Linkster79 Posts: 1,037 Chairperson of the Boards
    Casual player here. I don't earn many tokens, get the odd one from the 4* Deadpool Daily and picked some up for story progression so say 10-12 Max including those from champion 3*. I have 1 Old Man Logan black.

    Got 2 Wolverine X-Force yellow in a row, some StarLords, Invisible Woman and Elektra with the rest and a single Carnage who I haven't even rostered.
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    4 out of 131

    3oml and 1 surfer
  • Born2DieNPvP
    Born2DieNPvP Posts: 163
    Rough estimate I have opened 12 LTs and have got 3 5*'s. One of each (BSSpidey wasn't released yet). So I have had incredible luck in draw rate. Ruined pvp match up though so it's a tradeoff that sucks unless my luck continues.
  • Magic
    Magic Posts: 1,199 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hard playing F2P - I am keeping track from middle of November. In that time - 5/40. It is a bit above average I guess (by one cover).

    Before I kept track I have opened anything between 10 and 20 and got 1 cover but the figure here is not accurate so I would not use it for test.
  • MNKromann
    MNKromann Posts: 31
    4 out of 13

    Opened 12 LT's from Championing. 4 5* - 2 Silver Surfer and 2 Jean Grey

    Opened 1 earlier on with Command Points and got a 4*
  • Berserk_Al
    Berserk_Al Posts: 411 Mover and Shaker
    edited January 2016
    1 out of 10. And it was in the tenth token (Surfer red). Then I stopped opening to this day, because I'm not ready.
  • Blinkxi
    Blinkxi Posts: 29 Just Dropped In
    8 / 84

    All reds and blacks so no heal covers yet
  • OneLastGambit
    OneLastGambit Posts: 1,963 Chairperson of the Boards
    Interesting to see a correlation beginning between New players and higher 5* draw rates.

    Can we get some vets to add here then we can compare?
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    11/161 so far for me.
  • Magic
    Magic Posts: 1,199 Chairperson of the Boards
    There does seem to be correlation between new and old players. Saddly that allows "noobs" to skip 3* transition completly (and maybe even 4* transition). Working as intended...
  • Monged4life
    Monged4life Posts: 420
    I've been playing 255 days, and had 6/30 draw rate. 2 of each 5* but Spidey.

    If it matters, I haven't kept them, for the exact reason that it doesn't help skip the 4* transition. With 1 or 2 5* characters with a couple of covers each being your entire usable roster thanks to scaling, you won't be earning any more Legendary tokens to improve them with.
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    My average is starting to equalize, 8/112, 7 of those coming in the last 2 seasons (21 & 22)
  • chamber44
    chamber44 Posts: 324 Mover and Shaker
    honestly don't know how many LT's i've opened, but minus the covers i whaled during the last sale, I have about 95 total 4* covers (plus, i know i've sold 5 IW yellows, because i'm keeping track of THAT), and I've opened exactly zero 5*'s. (and no Icemans, either).
  • Doc L
    Doc L Posts: 279 Mover and Shaker
    A tiny bit hard to track, as I don't note every single one down, but... About 1/50. Yeah, it's been a good run, thankfully the ones at day 730 and 820 mean I will have at least one of each of the first 3 5*, but without that, I would have only a single red Phoenix. I love RNG for tokens...
  • Stony
    Stony Posts: 175 Tile Toppler
    At one point I was 2 for 70. It has averaged out as I have had some amazing luck lately. Currently 12/127.
  • moogles85
    moogles85 Posts: 186 Tile Toppler
    16/180

    6 SS
    4 Phoenix
    3 OML
    3 Spiderman
  • Tatercat
    Tatercat Posts: 930 Critical Contributor
    Think I've had around 40, maybe 45 LT's so far, at most. (4 I bought from CP, 12 from championing 3*'s, and the rest would be from the PVE events they've run since they were introduced last year,though I didn't compete in all of them. None from PVP)

    I've gotten about 4 five stars so far from LT's :
    SS - redflag.pngblackflag.png
    OML - yellowflag.png
    Phoenix - purpleflag.png
    (plus another SS blackflag.png from daily reward at day 730).


    I'm day 813. but wouldn't call myself a top tier player, there was a long period in 2014 where I only did daily rewards. I'm slowly taking a small 4* group above 200 right now, so I wouldn't classify myself as a vet transitioning to the 5* level, but I'm not newbie either. (if that helps with who's pulling what)
  • Ralph-Wiggum
    Ralph-Wiggum Posts: 175 Tile Toppler
    I haven't kept track of how many LTs I've received, but I have a total of 166 4 or 5* covers and would guess that I had between 40 - 50 of those covers before LTs were introduced. So let's ballpark it and say 6 5*s out of 120 LTs.
  • Millos152
    Millos152 Posts: 8
    150 days old player

    Two 5's out of three tokens opened

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