LT pulls...[Pull Streaks]

24

Comments

  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Malcrof wrote:
    Sure, i had repeat colors, but i was more meaning constructiveness.
    Gotcha. I tend to ignore how useful the pulls are, since that's a function of what one has to begin with. I'm more concerned with instances of duplication within a set of pulls, and pretty much everyone who posts a batch up pulls shows an unlikely amount of duplication.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    rastafari7 wrote:
    Hate these complain threads, you are given a leg token so you will get a 4/5* no matter who it is and you got it.
    U can say the same on the standard token why do I get Jugs 5x in a row.
    With people like that the glass is always half empty.
    If you get 20 legendaries in a row that yield something you don't need, that glass is all the way empty.
  • DrStrange-616
    DrStrange-616 Posts: 993 Critical Contributor
    Arondite wrote:
    DrStrange-616 wrote:
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.

    I get that you mean to say the odds of so many repeats would be small, but since you worded it as "this specific sequence is unlikely", any specific sequence of 4*'s is equally unlikely.

    Yes, that is what I meant.
  • DrStrange-616
    DrStrange-616 Posts: 993 Critical Contributor
    Spencer75 wrote:
    DrStrange-616 wrote:
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.

    The odds of ANY specific 10 pulls in a row is small. Just as small as the odds of these pulls. Here's a sequence that's just as unlikely

    XF
    4CYKE
    4CYKE
    IW
    PX
    KP
    KP
    KP
    IW
    HB

    The chances of this happening are exactly the same.

    *sigh*

    Yes, I get that. I'm not talking about actual odds, but the *perception* of them.
  • Blahahah
    Blahahah Posts: 738 Critical Contributor
    I've opened about 10 LTs, and I haven't gotten a double yet, at least not in a row. I did get 2 Thing Greens but they were about 4 or 5 covers apart.
  • Blahahah
    Blahahah Posts: 738 Critical Contributor
    When you consider it, when you open up 30 heroic tokens, you have a pool of 54 covers to pull from
    When you pull from a legendary pack, you have a pool of 28. Yeah if you open 30 of them, you will inevitably have a copy of something.
    If you discount the epics (lower chance rate) and just go off of the base numbers, you have a 4% chance of drawing any given cover.
    As you mass more covers, your chance for duplicates increases at a flat rate. Sooo....

    Yeah, after opening 15 covers, you're 50% likely to pull another of the same character at any point thereafter.
    Clusters are coincidental, but thats confirmation bias showing itself. You believe there are clusters, so you focus in on a small sample size that provides coincidence to your point.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    simonsez wrote:
    rastafari7 wrote:
    Hate these complain threads, you are given a leg token so you will get a 4/5* no matter who it is and you got it.
    U can say the same on the standard token why do I get Jugs 5x in a row.
    With people like that the glass is always half empty.
    If you get 20 legendaries in a row that yield something you don't need, that glass is all the way empty.

    constructiveness? DYAC, i meant consecutiveness which apparently isn't a word.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Blahahah wrote:
    I've opened about 10 LTs, and I haven't gotten a double yet, at least not in a row. I did get 2 Thing Greens but they were about 4 or 5 covers apart.
    Doesn't matter if they're consecutive. That's not the point. And in 10 pulls, it's less likely that you'd get a double than not. So thanks for contributing.
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
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  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    IT WAS WORTH A TRY! F IT

    Sitting on 3 LT and 50 CP let you know how i do...

    Darknes21
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    So, there's a well-known "paradox" in probability theory called the Birthday Problem (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Birthday_problem). It goes like this: let's say that you have a group of random people. What's the probability that two people will have the same birthday? You'd think that, with so many days in the year, that it'd be a pretty small chance without having hundreds of people. But if you do the math, you'll find that it's actually as high as 50% with only 23 people. The trick is that the matching pair can be any two people. If you were looking for a match for one specific person, the odds would be much lower.

    Here, there's only 26 (?) potential LT characters draws, not 365 days. If we can simplify the math a bit (since the 5* rate is close to, but not the same as the 4* one), the probability of drawing the specific characters twice in a row is around (1/26)^2, or about 0.1%, for every two draws. But since you're not actually specifying which character is drawn, only that you get two draws of the same character in a row, the probability is actually around 1 in 26 for every draw. That adds up quick the more tokens you draw. For 20 tokens, it goes up to around 50%. Nothing too surprising, even if it seems unintuitive.
  • Mawtful
    Mawtful Posts: 1,646 Chairperson of the Boards
    I opened 7 LTs when Champions went live - a combination of stockpiled Tokens & champion rewards. I didn't record what order, but they were all either Red Hulk (who went from 1/2/2 to 4/3/2) or X23 (2/2/1 to 4/3/1).

    Yeah, it's great to get covers that I didn't have to sell, but it's a little curious. I'm still missing a lot of covers across the 4* tier that I could have pulled 1 cover for each of 7 different characters and still been OK.

    It also puts my 5* draw rate to about 1 in 50. Great Job!
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    Mawtful wrote:
    I opened 7 LTs when Champions went live - a combination of stockpiled Tokens & champion rewards. I didn't record what order, but they were all either Red Hulk (who went from 1/2/2 to 4/3/2) or X23 (2/2/1 to 4/3/1).

    Yeah, it's great to get covers that I didn't have to sell, but it's a little curious. I'm still missing a lot of covers across the 4* tier that I could have pulled 1 cover for each of 7 different characters and still been OK.

    It also puts my 5* draw rate to about 1 in 50. Great Job!

    That is actually exceedingly rare. The LT drop rate for Red Hulk and X23 are 8.2% together. Plugging these into my MPQ Luck Calculator (see signature), we can see that there's about a 0.000002% (1 in 500,000) chance of that happening. If this kind of thing is happening to more people (or if you kept only drawing RH and X23 past a dozen or so LTs), then we might be suspicious. As is, it's like winning the lottery or getting attacked by a shark - it happens to someone, even if it's weird when it's you.

    To put it into perspective, if you drew 12 straight RH/X23 in a row, it would be a 1 in 108 billion chance.
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    GF opened 9 LTs last night.
    3 Thing covers, one of each colour.
    Yeah, definitely nothing fishy going on.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Bowgentle wrote:
    GF opened 9 LTs last night.
    3 Thing covers, one of each colour.
    Yeah, definitely nothing fishy going on.
    The five Thing covers in my queue think you may be onto something...
  • chamber44
    chamber44 Posts: 324 Mover and Shaker
    i have 80 total 4* covers - not including the ones i whaled during the last sale (4clops and RHulk), or the IW yellow that I have maxed and yet keep drawing (and selling). I know i've won a few of them in placement, etc, but a lot of them have been LT's (my alliance went crazy during the last HP sale and the CP was falling like rain). As of yet, I don't have any 5*'s.

    *shrug* - i'm not too worried about it, but those are my numbers.

    edit: i did pull two Cho's in a row, and a day later, pulled 2 Ghost Riders. Irritating, since i only have 3 PX and 1 JG, but not really outside of what's to be expected.
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/940958_921368077900713_7050512688582824606_n.jpg?oh=051604f41f46d2b4bf7421e4b690654c&oe=5741D5DD/url]

    [img]    https://scontent-lga3-1.xx.fbcdn.net/hphotos-xpa1/v/t1.0-9/940958_921368077900713_7050512688582824606_n.jpg?oh=051604f41f46d2b4bf7421e4b690654c&oe=5741D5DD/img] here is the second pic hope it works![/img]
  • amusingfoo1
    amusingfoo1 Posts: 597 Critical Contributor
    Bowgentle wrote:
    GF opened 9 LTs last night.
    3 Thing covers, one of each colour.
    Yeah, definitely nothing fishy going on.

    One of the guys in my alliance (and Dark's) pulled four straight Thing greens from LTs. He was not thrilled. But such are the vagaries of RNG.
  • amusingfoo1
    amusingfoo1 Posts: 597 Critical Contributor
    wirius wrote:
    Welcome to randomness. Unlikelyness does not mean impossible. Your pulls are very possible within the odds. We as humans have NO intuitive sense of random numbers. Its just not in us from nature. It is a pure emotionally removed logical certainty that you must accept on intellectual principle alone. It sucks, but that's the way it is.

    In particular, they're very bad at comprehending just how unlikely low-probability events are. Just not wired that way.
  • SnowcaTT
    SnowcaTT Posts: 3,486 Chairperson of the Boards
    Randomness still sucks.

    I've pulled (tossed) four IW's and five XF's (championed....still worthless...) in the last week. In that time, with tons of LT's, I've pulled one RHulk and zero Cyc's.

    I get it happens like that. But it sucks, it sucks bad.

    I wish instead of just championing at max level, you could exchange any cover for any other when you have 13 covers in a character already.

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