LT pulls...[Pull Streaks]

Darknes21
Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
edited January 2016 in MPQ General Discussion
Around 12-23-15 I contacted customer service on my legendary token pulls ( two invisible women) ....prior to that I pulled 4 XFW (In a row) from LT.... I got the generic email saying there's nothing wrong and we apologize but unfortunately there's nothing we can do. After that I pulled 2 King pins in a row from LT (Im not going to lie I needed them) and sent another email about my complaint. I received another generic email stating that there's nothing wrong and I should check the forum for more information on token pulls! Today (12/28/15) I was lucky enough to have enough CP to pull two legendary tokens, I pulled two ice man blue covers in a row! I don't know the odds on that but it's almost close to impossible! How can they said there's nothing wrong?

You're angry player,
Darknes21

Ps: I got the screenshots to prove it! (I wish I could figure out how to post them)

Mod Edit: Changed thread title to represent content, there is an actual conversation to be had here
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Comments

  • puppychow
    puppychow Posts: 1,453
    Let's play devil's advocate. Even if there IS a problem w/ LT pulls. .. what do you propose as remedy? Free 5* for everyone? icon_mrgreen.gif I'm really curious as to what you expect customer service to do about it.
  • atomzed
    atomzed Posts: 1,753 Chairperson of the Boards
    So ummm, the problem you have is that in your past 4 LT pulls, you pulled
    2 KP in a row(which you need)
    2 IM in a row (which you need)

    And you are complaining about it?
    So you prefer to get SL, IW, Elektra, Mr F, SL, Elektra?
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    Lol... Maybe the odds are off....?
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    atomzed wrote:
    So ummm, the problem you have is that in your past 4 LT pulls, you pulled
    2 KP in a row(which you need)
    2 IM in a row (which you need)

    And you are complaining about it?
    So you prefer to get SL, IW, Elektra, Mr F, SL, Elektra?

    I guess u read my whole post!
  • atomzed
    atomzed Posts: 1,753 Chairperson of the Boards
    Darknes21 wrote:
    atomzed wrote:
    So ummm, the problem you have is that in your past 4 LT pulls, you pulled
    2 KP in a row(which you need)
    2 IM in a row (which you need)

    And you are complaining about it?
    So you prefer to get SL, IW, Elektra, Mr F, SL, Elektra?

    I guess u read my whole post!

    I did. Was being sarcastic in my response.

    Just your experience is not enough to say that the system is bias. You need a greater sample size.

    If you insist that your experience is strong enough, then I say that all my last LT pulls has been for different char. Does that invalidate your point?
  • DrStrange-616
    DrStrange-616 Posts: 993 Critical Contributor
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    atomzed wrote:
    Darknes21 wrote:
    atomzed wrote:
    So ummm, the problem you have is that in your past 4 LT pulls, you pulled
    2 KP in a row(which you need)
    2 IM in a row (which you need)

    And you are complaining about it?
    So you prefer to get SL, IW, Elektra, Mr F, SL, Elektra?

    I guess u read my whole post!

    I did. Was being sarcastic in my response.

    Just your experience is not enough to say that the system is bias. You need a greater sample size.

    If you insist that your experience is strong enough, then I say that all my last LT pulls has been for different char. Does that invalidate your point?

    I'm sorry I didn't understand your sarcasm I guess I should pull my complaint!
  • wirius
    wirius Posts: 667
    Welcome to randomness. Unlikelyness does not mean impossible. Your pulls are very possible within the odds. We as humans have NO intuitive sense of random numbers. Its just not in us from nature. It is a pure emotionally removed logical certainty that you must accept on intellectual principle alone. It sucks, but that's the way it is.
  • Akari
    Akari Posts: 492 Mover and Shaker
    Yes, the odds of your pull are extremely low. So are the odds of winning the lottery back to back. So someone who manages to do that should complain that the odds are rigged, too? There's a LOT of other people pulling LT just like you, and it's been said more than a few times by the devs/mods that the global pull rate is just about accurate so far.

    PS: In case you want to bring it up, I bet you there's a ton of people who pulled LTs in the span between your consecutive pulls. Go find them and yell at them for stealing your pulls.
  • Darknes21
    Darknes21 Posts: 321 Mover and Shaker
    wirius wrote:
    Welcome to randomness. Unlikelyness does not mean impossible. Your pulls are very possible within the odds. We as humans have NO intuitive sense of random numbers. Its just not in us from nature. It is a pure emotionally removed logical certainty that you must accept on intellectual principle alone. It sucks, but that's the way it is.

    Ok I guess I'm wrong 01000111110000101010100101011010100010101010
  • Arondite
    Arondite Posts: 1,188 Chairperson of the Boards
    DrStrange-616 wrote:
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.

    I get that you mean to say the odds of so many repeats would be small, but since you worded it as "this specific sequence is unlikely", any specific sequence of 4*'s is equally unlikely.
  • atomzed
    atomzed Posts: 1,753 Chairperson of the Boards
    Arondite wrote:
    DrStrange-616 wrote:
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.

    I get that you mean to say the odds of so many repeats would be small, but since you worded it as "this specific sequence is unlikely", any specific sequence of 4*'s is equally unlikely.

    Exactly my point.

    The odds of the OP pulls and the odds of a pull of (example)
    IW, SL, KP, PX, Carnage, Falcap, GR, X23, XFW, XDP are identical. (Note: there will be slight differences due to the addition of new char but it will be very minor.)

    Some thing that us not intuitive is that all the pulls are independent of each other. After I get my 10th consecutive pull of XFW, what is the chance of me getting another XFW? Exactly the same as the reported odds, 3%. No change at all.
  • Spencer75
    Spencer75 Posts: 232
    DrStrange-616 wrote:
    The odds of ...

    XF
    XF
    XF
    XF
    IW
    IW
    KP
    KP
    IM
    IM

    ... must be pretty small. I can see why the OP thinks something is wrong, even if the last 4 pulls have been pretty good. I definitely haven't experienced anything like the OP, but I can understand why they might be concerned that something is amiss.

    The odds of ANY specific 10 pulls in a row is small. Just as small as the odds of these pulls. Here's a sequence that's just as unlikely

    XF
    4CYKE
    4CYKE
    IW
    PX
    KP
    KP
    KP
    IW
    HB

    The chances of this happening are exactly the same.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have absolutely noticed that LT's can be streaky? Is that the word for it? Whether confirmaton bias or whatnot, if i pull a JG/Rulk/4Thor, etc.. one i have completed.. i restart the game before opening another, and i never get the same person a 2nd time in a row.. If it is one i need, i keep going.. which works about 50% of the time, i will get another cover for that char within the next 2 pulls.

    Maybe just superstitious nonsense, but it works for me.
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    Malcrof wrote:
    I have absolutely noticed that LT's can be streaky? Is that the word for it? Whether confirmaton bias or whatnot, if i pull a JG/Rulk/4Thor, etc.. one i have completed.. i restart the game before opening another, and i never get the same person a 2nd time in a row.. If it is one i need, i keep going.. which works about 50% of the time, i will get another cover for that char within the next 2 pulls.

    Maybe just superstitious nonsense, but it works for me.


    Well, i have to take it all back now.. i bit the bullet last night and opened my hoard.. i just couldn't take it anymore.

    36 Legendary tokens.
    0 ghost Rider (which is what i really wanted) lol - here are the pulls, no character came back to back the entire time, in fact, repeat chars were usually 3 or so seperated

    Needed:
    Thing: 3 red
    X-23 : green, purple
    Starlord : yellow (Finally! He'd been 5/0/5 forever)
    Elektra : Purple (she is now complete)
    Fury: Blue
    Chulk: 2x green, black, blue
    Iceman: green and blue
    XDP: purple, black
    Carnage: black
    Reed: black and blue
    OML: black, yellow, red

    so 22 usable covers

    14 non-usable
    Hulbuster : 3 red, blue
    JG: purple
    4Thor: red, yellow
    SL: purple
    XFW : green
    Antman: purple
    Rulk: red, purple
    X-23 : purple, 1 usable up top, 1 spare down here
    4clops: yellow (could use, but not the build i want)
    Carnage: green

    Didn't get any Flaptain or IW covers i needed either.. will get them eventually..

    So, 3 5*s, and loads of usable covers, and it was not even a little streaky!

    Now, can anyone lend me 5 million iso?

    i am now 500% more confident that LT's are the way to go. The 4* transition is so much easier now it's not funny.. and hopefully soon, some of those spare covers will be useful as well!
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    Malcrof wrote:
    it was not even a little streaky!
    That's not true at all. You had two triples (red Thing and red HB). The odds of geting two or more triples in 36 pulls is less than 1 in 4. Your pulls weren't egregiously streaky, but they're still providing evidence of clustering.
  • rastafari7
    rastafari7 Posts: 75 Match Maker
    Hate these complain threads, you are given a leg token so you will get a 4/5* no matter who it is and you got it.
    U can say the same on the standard token why do I get Jugs 5x in a row.
    With people like that the glass is always half empty.
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Malcrof wrote:
    i am now 500% more confident that LT's are the way to go.
    Yes, if I were drawing at the expected rate of 10% I wouldn't have a problem, either.
    Thing is, there are people drawing 0/40, and regularly too.
  • atomzed
    atomzed Posts: 1,753 Chairperson of the Boards
    Malcrof wrote:
    36 Legendary tokens.

    OML: black, yellow, red

    so 22 usable covers

    3 5*! And all different color for OML! so awesome!

    Can I borrow your mod luck when I open my 18 LT? icon_e_smile.gif
  • Malcrof
    Malcrof Posts: 5,971 Chairperson of the Boards
    atomzed wrote:
    Malcrof wrote:
    36 Legendary tokens.

    OML: black, yellow, red

    so 22 usable covers

    3 5*! And all different color for OML! so awesome!

    Can I borrow your mod luck when I open my 18 LT? icon_e_smile.gif

    I wish! I am still not at 10% overall on 5*s, still haven't broken 7% overall , even with those 3.
    simonsez wrote:
    Malcrof wrote:
    it was not even a little streaky!
    That's not true at all. You had two triples (red Thing and red HB). The odds of geting two or more triples in 36 pulls is less than 1 in 4. Your pulls weren't egregiously streaky, but they're still providing evidence of clustering.

    Sure, i had repeat colors, but i was more meaning constructiveness. Not a single back to back during the entire pullfest.

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