More Probability Whining (Legendary Token Pulls)

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  • Pylgrim
    Pylgrim Posts: 2,328 Chairperson of the Boards
    alphabeta wrote:
    My two cents.

    Mathematical facts:

    Clumping in a sign of randomness - a totally even distribution across all options is absolutely not random and is in fact less likely than any sort of grouping occurring.

    The sample sizes people are quoting are pathetically small in mathematical terms - 5k plus minimum needed to be even approaching robustness.

    It is impossible for a truly random sequence to be programmed - there is always a 'pattern' because it's a computer programme and it needs to be programmed with some sort of a sequence - the number of steps determines how close to 'random' it is but given it applies to the entire player base your individual outcomes are as close to random as is likely to be practicable unless you are conspiracy theorist enough to believe someone is staying awake night and day specifically to spoil your pulls personally in a darkened room somewhere in the second between clicking on the token and the reward being revealed.

    That said some sort of ability to spend CP in microtransactional format to covert cover a colour 1 to cover a colour 2 for say 2 cp would be very welcome.

    Man, please read the thread before posting. You are not the first person waltzing in and pompously showing off their brilliant expertise on statistical probability and the understanding of chance—as opposed to us, dumb, tinfoil-hat wearing chumps—all while ignoring the crux of the problem. What's the crux of the problem? I'd be repeating myself here for the n time, as I've been pointing it to all these genius statisticians for days, so please read the thread or any of the threads that have been bouncing around this topic for a while.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I don't know guys I seem to have a lot harder time pulling the covers from the vault Then I do The old wayOut of The entire time the vault has been opened I think I got maybe 2; 4 star characters And maybe a few very few 3 star characters But I mainly pull two stars or Five health packs Or 1500 iso Like all the time. Its so bad that I don't even look forward to Pulling the vault packs because I know my luck is not good.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    I don't know guys I seem to have a lot harder time pulling the covers from the vault Then I do The old wayOut of The entire time the vault has been opened I think I got maybe 2; 4 star characters And maybe a few very few 3 star characters But I mainly pull two stars or Five health packs Or 1500 iso Like all the time. Its so bad that I don't even look forward to Pulling the vault packs because I know my luck is not good.
  • Pongie
    Pongie Posts: 1,411 Chairperson of the Boards
    Just pulled my 4th duplicate of Fisk purple this month. 60 other 4* covers I need and I keep pulling the same cover not required. I'm supposed to have 95% chance (if not more if you factoring in the 5*) to get something I need but I feel like I'm getting less than 50% here.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    alphabeta wrote:
    The sample sizes people are quoting are pathetically small in mathematical terms - 5k plus minimum needed to be even approaching robustness.
    The technical term for that is ****. Probability is probability, regardless of sample size. If someone pulls twenty 5*s in a row, I can state unequivocally that these pulls were not generated by random outcomes with a 10% chance of success. Doesn't matter that it was only 20 pulls. The probability of such an event is negligible. I don't need 4,980 more pulls to draw a conclusion.
  • Salgy
    Salgy Posts: 254 Mover and Shaker
    I'll add to the whining...

    for those who don't know me... i am the 1%... i am lucky enough to be in a top pvp alliance... command points are plentiful... 1300 token reward is an easy number to hit (i average 2250 per pvp event)... i am whale-ish (i don't whale everyone, but i will whale characters that i feel are game-changers)... and therefore need very, very few 4* covers, so i never tracked my usable pulls vs. unusable pulls... what i have tracked are 5* pulls, since that is the next logical step in my "progression"...

    my story: i waited until OML was added to the tokens before pulling my first legendary token to give myself 10% odds at a 5* cover... it took 65 legendary token pulls to award me my first 5* (OML black)... that's a whopping 1.538% pull rate... I then went on a "hot streak" and pulled my second (OML black) with token #90, bringing my draw rate up to 2.22%... I lost track of when exactly i pulled the third 5*... but i can tell you that i now have 4 (a 0/1/1 jean grey to go with my 2/0/0 OML) 5* covers... from 165 legendary token pulls... my draw rate is 2.424%

    i have tried everything to reverse my luck... i have pulled tokens singly, in groups of 2's, groups of 5's, groups of 10's... i have pulled after alliance rewards come in for events, i have pulled when personal rewards come in for events, i have pulled after the daily resupply has come in... i have tried to offer RNGesus a sacrifice... nothing has worked... at this point i feel like Serrano trying to hit a curve ball... "i say tinykitty you jobu, i'll do it myself"

    i'm not posting for pitty... not posting to have anything changed... just sharing my story... and while i have your attention, i just want to say 2 things in closing:

    1. letting the 5* transition be determined by luck, and nothing else is just tinykitty...

    2. to anyone out there enjoying greater than the stated 10% odds on a 5*, your welcome... i am the one bringing down the average so you can continue to advance in this game...

    finally, i feel i need to quote IceIX, because when i read his post earlier this snippet spoke to me:
    IceIX wrote:
    things are rigged and you're getting screwed
    yes that is taken out of context... but i did not change the order of the words... that is how they appear in his post...

    and it felt like he was talking to me directly...

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