More Probability Whining (Legendary Token Pulls)

pheregas

Just throwing it out there. I spent 100 CP to bring my final Legendary Token count to 9.

I redeemed them all.

Of those 9, 4 of them were Thing. One yellow and three green. (I had already had 4, so two are wasted).

The odds of pulling that many for the same character should not be 44.4%. Not when there are currently 20 four stars (not including X-23 who shouldn't be in the packs yet), and 2 five stars. By my count, that's 66 total color abilities represented.

I submitted a ticket extolling the improbabilities of this happening. I have my fingers crossed, by I'm expecting it to be met with the usual *shrug* from support staff.

But given that my alliance put real money into CP purchases, I may as well have thrown that money out the window.

***End of whining, please go about your business.***

wirius

Improbable doesn't mean impossible. Its very possible for what happened to you to happen. Ironically many people would be ecstatic about having all their covers concentrated like that instead of spread uselessly around. That's what random is.

liminal_lad

No part of me believes their RNG works properly. There's just too many events like this for me to believe this is just pure probability.

DFiPL

wirius wrote:

Improbable doesn't mean impossible. Its very possible for what happened to you to happen. Ironically many people would be ecstatic about having all their covers concentrated like that instead of spread uselessly around. That's what random is.

My Thing is totes jealous.

PorkBelly

liminal_lad wrote:

No part of me believes their RNG works properly. There's just too many events like this for me to believe this is just pure probability.

While I sympathize and frequently feel that way myself (I seem to pull only XFW & IW from Legendary tokens), I don't think that the devs would spend the time to do anything other than the most basic level programming for token draws.

Google "availability heuristic" and you'll get the most likely explanation for any statistical abnormalities you seem to be experiencing.

Nightglider1

pheregas wrote:

Just throwing it out there. I spent 100 CP to bring my final Legendary Token count to 9.

I redeemed them all.

Of those 9, 4 of them were Thing. One yellow and three green. (I had already had 4, so two are wasted).

The odds of pulling that many for the same character should not be 44.4%. Not when there are currently 20 four stars (not including X-23 who shouldn't be in the packs yet), and 2 five stars. By my count, that's 66 total color abilities represented.

I submitted a ticket extolling the improbabilities of this happening. I have my fingers crossed, by I'm expecting it to be met with the usual *shrug* from support staff.

But given that my alliance put real money into CP purchases, I may as well have thrown that money out the window.

***End of whining, please go about your business.***

From an individual user viewpoint, improbable that it would happen to you. From an overall viewpoint, just as likely to happen to you as it is to anyone else.

slidecage

love for them to add a

REPULL for like 1 or 2 CP that way if you get the wrong cover you can try again

Raffoon

Nightglider1 wrote:

pheregas wrote:

Just throwing it out there. I spent 100 CP to bring my final Legendary Token count to 9.

I redeemed them all.

Of those 9, 4 of them were Thing. One yellow and three green. (I had already had 4, so two are wasted).

The odds of pulling that many for the same character should not be 44.4%. Not when there are currently 20 four stars (not including X-23 who shouldn't be in the packs yet), and 2 five stars. By my count, that's 66 total color abilities represented.

I submitted a ticket extolling the improbabilities of this happening. I have my fingers crossed, by I'm expecting it to be met with the usual *shrug* from support staff.

But given that my alliance put real money into CP purchases, I may as well have thrown that money out the window.

***End of whining, please go about your business.***

From an individual user viewpoint, improbable that it would happen to you. From an overall viewpoint, just as likely to happen to you as it is to anyone else.

Also, very likely to happen to multiple people.

simonsez

liminal_lad wrote:

No part of me believes their RNG works properly. There's just too many events like this for me to believe this is just pure probability.

Completely agree. This goes on every single day. Eg, 3 in our alliance open legendaries, and all get IW green. A couple days later, 3 more open one, and they all get MrF blue. There just aren't enough of us playing to keep generating all of these "1 in thousands" outcomes so regularly.

simonsez

i will be nice from here on out

It would be, but that's not what he did. He submitted a ticket because their rng is ****.

killerkoala

pheregas wrote:

Just throwing it out there. I spent 100 CP to bring my final Legendary Token count to 9.

I redeemed them all.

Of those 9, 4 of them were Thing. One yellow and three green. (I had already had 4, so two are wasted).

The odds of pulling that many for the same character should not be 44.4%. Not when there are currently 20 four stars (not including X-23 who shouldn't be in the packs yet), and 2 five stars. By my count, that's 66 total color abilities represented.

I submitted a ticket extolling the improbabilities of this happening. I have my fingers crossed, by I'm expecting it to be met with the usual *shrug* from support staff.

But given that my alliance put real money into CP purchases, I may as well have thrown that money out the window.

***End of whining, please go about your business.***

would u send a ticket if you got all covers u needed (say JG, HB, IM) and just enough to make them 5 covers and none wasted? RNGesus is fickle. u need to play the cards u r dealt.

Malcrof

If you are submitting a ticket, then this belongs in Bugs and Technical Issues, will move thread on 11/12

itstime1234

I think everyone will admit the RNG seems to come in waves of the same covers. I spent forever trying to get 4hor blue covers. Finally get my 5th about a month ago. Since then have pulled 5 blue 4hors (3 from legendary tokens).

That being said. If instead of thing covers you got Silver Surfer covers, I doubt the op would be complaining. So not sure any compensation is due.

scottee

Thousands of players have thousands of uneventful RNG events. It's the one miraculous one that makes a thread about it. So by reading the forums, it looks like a higher than normal percentage have extraordinary things happen, when in reality, it's only that a higher than normal percentage get posted.

No one posts threads that say, "Three tiles dropped from the ceiling and didn't match or cause a cascade. They just sat there and the turn ended."

fmftint

I just pulled my 6th SIXTH! I've pulled her more than any other single character and I don't need her anymore now than I did when she dropped the first time

Rob13

Wow! Just wow! Now I've heard it all. You pulled 7/9 useful legendary and still complain! Not only complain, you put in a ticket saying those aren't good enough odds!?!

simonsez

Rob13 wrote:

Wow! Just wow! Now I've heard it all. You pulled 7/9 useful legendary and still complain! Not only complain, you put in a ticket saying those aren't good enough odds!?!

pheregas

No, I put in a ticket because I thought the odds were off. Yes, the odds of getting any one cover are identical to getting any other cover. But I keep hearing things from alliance members. I keep hearing that sometimes the random number generator doesn't seem so random.

I have all four stars and one cover on one five star. The odds were tremendously in my favor to get many covers that I needed. I had a 68/69 chance of success! Yet, 4/9 covers were for one character, three of which were identical pulls. This is why I was concerned. This was I submitted a ticket.

I was subsequently patted on the head and told this was normal and that others would "kill for that many of one cover." This is a direct quote from customer service. This was after I was told that if I wanted a higher draw rate on covers, I should pay attention to the draw rates and only buy from events for characters I am specifically looking for.

This leads me to believe that customer service didn't even read my message, as my concern was with Legendary pull rates.

scottee

pheregas wrote:

No, I put in a ticket because I thought the odds were off. Yes, the odds of getting any one cover are identical to getting any other cover. But I keep hearing things from alliance members. I keep hearing that sometimes the random number generator doesn't seem so random.

I have all four stars and one cover on one five star. The odds were tremendously in my favor to get many covers that I needed. I had a 68/69 chance of success! Yet, 4/9 covers were for one character, three of which were identical pulls. This is why I was concerned. This was I submitted a ticket.

I was subsequently patted on the head and told this was normal and that others would "kill for that many of one cover." This is a direct quote from customer service. This was after I was told that if I wanted a higher draw rate on covers, I should pay attention to the draw rates and only buy from events for characters I am specifically looking for.

This leads me to believe that customer service didn't even read my message, as my concern was with Legendary pull rates.

As the RNG is done client side, maybe you should mail them your phone and have them look at it.

Pylgrim

Forgive me if I keep plugging my thread but it already has 57 upvotes and several pages of comments, so I think it's important to keep it visible and growing. LTs NEED to change and we need to make sure the devs see this is a concern of a significant part of the playerbase.

IceIX

Pylgrim wrote:

Forgive me if I keep plugging my thread but it already has 57 upvotes and several pages of comments, so I think it's important to keep it visible and growing. LTs NEED to change and we need to make sure the devs see this is a concern of a significant part of the playerbase.

We've seen it. Feel free to keep the discussion going if you like. What you appear to be asking for is something to make the game say "Oh, you don't need X-Force anymore? Let's give you less of those". Which would naturally alter the odds in the pack dynamically for you. This would need to be reflected across all packs on a per user basis. It would be a base fundamental change in how covers are provided to the player base, as well as make things orders of magnitude more difficult to balance cover outflow to make sure that (most) players aren't getting covers too quickly. It's not an impossible task, but being 100% honest it's not something that I would expect that we would ever take on for implementation. The alternative that we could do *today* in-game would be to make the Legendary Packs a Vault instead. There are real downsides to that though:

- The Vault would necessarily reset when we add a new 4*/5*. You would have at max 1 month (a season) to pull everything you needed before it may disappear/odds reset - This isn't great for covering characters. Either the Vault is small enough that you could reasonably expect a certain character (100 covers) and probably only 3-4 covers of each character, or it contains enough to cover all the 4*s and the Vault is huge, so odds changes never happen. Then refer back to point 1 on not being able to chew through that. - Even with a Vault, you're still going to have the same issue as current: Out of a 100 piece Vault, players pulling 5 times could very well pull 3 of the 4 available Invisible Woman covers that happen to be hanging out. Chances aren't high of that happening, but it's a near surety that someone will hit that combination with the number of people making pulls. Meaning, it may not even actually change the *feeling* that things are rigged and you're getting screwed even if it does 100% objectively lower the odds of that occurring.

In regards to the more general feeling: We've looked at our odds. We've looked at drops. We continue to look at odds and drop runs. We have yet to find anything anomalous. The numbers of covers of all types from all cover packs have been and still are dropping in the displayed ratios, give or take very much within statistical variations. I totally get that it sucks that you see 3-4 covers in a row, but that's random being random. As was stated above, you never notice when you pull 12 Standards and they're all varied. You *do* notice when you pull 5 Venoms in a row though. Looking at it from a 100 foot view, that's a little streak blip in the otherwise very homogenous statistical run. Just as often, Venom doesn't pop out of 300 pack pulls in a row. But for you personally, that was signs that something is rigged. It really really does come down to being human nature to notice that. I mean, I sure as heck know better and *I* still have a hard time fighting down that feeling when Moonstone pops up 4 times on my 10x Heroic in a season pull.

All this being said, we are working on something that should obviate these feelings some/most of the time. Not ready to announce what that is yet, but all of us (and I'm sure nearly 100% of the player base) totally agree that pulling yet another cover on a finished character is a substandard experience.