Cover Pack Percentages are a Scam

2

Comments

  • Blahahah
    Blahahah Posts: 738 Critical Contributor
    If you're having pack problems, I feel bad for you son.
    I got 99 tokens and a gold ain't one.

    *very sad melody* icon_e_sad.gif
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    My initial point was just that I get an event token from every sub and my alliance gets me one for every sub plus I get around 3 each week from pvp. That is a ton of tokens for me to only be getting 2-3 golds or higher per month, although with the season tokens, I got 4 this month. This has been going on for a long time. If it is just me, then oh well, I just have **** luck. Just seemed like suspiciously low production given the stated odds. One or two months would seem that unusual, but over a long period of time just doesn't seem right.
  • Pinko_McFly
    Pinko_McFly Posts: 282 Mover and Shaker
    Based on the rounded percentages in the Heroic screen...

    When opening a 10-pack, there is a 2.4% chance that it will be all 2*s.
    I never feel like the odds are that low when I open one.
  • PeterGibbons316
    PeterGibbons316 Posts: 1,063
    So exactly how many tokens have you pulled? And exactly how many gold covers has that resulted in? Just divide the second number by the first to get your percentage and confirm your suspicion?

    If you don't have these numbers then just come back when you get them, and we can talk about it.
  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    darthpoo wrote:
    Yeah, but if you flip a coin 1000 times and only get tails 200, it is starting to become far less likely that it is legit.

    How it feels is not the same as reality.
  • MojoWild
    MojoWild Posts: 765 Critical Contributor
    darthpoo wrote:
    Worked at a casino for 6 years. They don't have to scam, because they know with enough spins of the roulette wheel, or what game you want to use as an example, they will get to the right percentages. If they aren't getting there long enough, they will find out why.

    I worked at a casino too. You know a pair in Texas hold 'em is more common than a full house right? Same with 2 and 3 stars.
  • Unknown
    Unknown
    LMAO. This got way more involved than I intended. I want to change my original post to: Wow I have **** luck.
  • slidecage
    slidecage Posts: 3,401 Chairperson of the Boards
    out of 50 tokens this season 16 was gold i think that is around 30%
  • Dayv
    Dayv Posts: 4,449 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited September 2015
    I thought about keeping track of all my token pulls so I could do some math on the results, but then I saw something shiny.
  • Whub Whubz
    Whub Whubz Posts: 62
    I literally don't know what to say but LMFAOROFLLOLOLOLOLWTFMATEHAHA.
  • killerkoala
    killerkoala Posts: 1,185 Chairperson of the Boards
    darthpoo wrote:
    My initial point was just that I get an event token from every sub and my alliance gets me one for every sub plus I get around 3 each week from pvp. That is a ton of tokens for me to only be getting 2-3 golds or higher per month, although with the season tokens, I got 4 this month. This has been going on for a long time. If it is just me, then oh well, I just have tinykitty luck. Just seemed like suspiciously low production given the stated odds. One or two months would seem that unusual, but over a long period of time just doesn't seem right.

    hey i was once in a worst streak ever, i was 3 months with no gold cover from tokens. "it will pass"
  • GurlBYE
    GurlBYE Posts: 1,218 Chairperson of the Boards
    Not so much a scam as they are the most horrible avenue towards any sort of advancement in this game.

    Seeing a pack should make you happy, but all I see is high effort, low iso return, very infrequently.

    with 40 3 stars and approaching 20 4 stars, all stuffed into 30% of a token, it's kinda really **** percentage wise.

    But your anecdotes have nothing to do with why its ****.

    You aren't pulling from a vault. every token you open has a 70% chance of having one of the like 18 2 stars.
    Whether you open 1 or you open 201233542352342
  • Buret0
    Buret0 Posts: 1,591
    darthpoo wrote:
    Worked at a casino for 6 years. They don't have to scam, because they know with enough spins of the roulette wheel, or what game you want to use as an example, they will get to the right percentages. If they aren't getting there long enough, they will find out why.

    I watched a guy hit his number twice in fur spins, therefore roulette is broken. I later saw that guy dejectedly going from table to table to try and recapture his former glory. He looked sick at how much money he threw back at the casino.
  • GMadMan040
    GMadMan040 Posts: 207
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Women of Marvel....no increased draw rates for the Women of Marvel Puzzle Quest.

    What a scam.

    Can't agree with this enough. It makes no sense to run an event and then not actually feature those characters. At the very least, limit the draw pool to just the Women of Marvel. Keep the draw rates the same if they absolutely must, just get rid of the other characters.
  • Buret0
    Buret0 Posts: 1,591
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Women of Marvel....no increased draw rates for the Women of Marvel Puzzle Quest.

    What a scam.

    But a 10,000 HP 40 pack...
  • BlackBoltRocks
    BlackBoltRocks Posts: 1,181 Chairperson of the Boards
    Go read up on Gambler's Fallacy
  • Nightglider1
    Nightglider1 Posts: 703 Critical Contributor
    GMadMan040 wrote:
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Women of Marvel....no increased draw rates for the Women of Marvel Puzzle Quest.

    What a scam.

    Can't agree with this enough. It makes no sense to run an event and then not actually feature those characters. At the very least, limit the draw pool to just the Women of Marvel. Keep the draw rates the same if they absolutely must, just get rid of the other characters.

    I too don't understand why, if they're going to buff/feature specific characters they don't also increase their odds in the token pulls.
  • killerkoala
    killerkoala Posts: 1,185 Chairperson of the Boards
    Nightglider1 wrote:
    GMadMan040 wrote:
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Women of Marvel....no increased draw rates for the Women of Marvel Puzzle Quest.

    What a scam.

    Can't agree with this enough. It makes no sense to run an event and then not actually feature those characters. At the very least, limit the draw pool to just the Women of Marvel. Keep the draw rates the same if they absolutely must, just get rid of the other characters.

    I too don't understand why, if they're going to buff/feature specific characters they don't also increase their odds in the token pulls.


    they usually do, but i think they been lazy lately and been copying and pasting heroic page to some events.
  • Linkster79
    Linkster79 Posts: 1,037 Chairperson of the Boards
    While not a scam the odds are unreasonable. On day 400 and something my next resupply bonus is a Heroic that I just know will either be Ares or Moonstone!

    With 1* and 2* covers raining down on players maybe it is time to shake up the token system. Standards give 1* and 2*, Heroics 3* and 4* and Legendaries 4* and 5*. Maybe give the Standards and Heroics new names to thwart those hoarders.
  • puppychow
    puppychow Posts: 1,453
    killerkoala wrote:
    Nightglider1 wrote:
    GMadMan040 wrote:
    aesthetocyst wrote:
    Women of Marvel....no increased draw rates for the Women of Marvel Puzzle Quest.

    What a scam.

    Can't agree with this enough. It makes no sense to run an event and then not actually feature those characters. At the very least, limit the draw pool to just the Women of Marvel. Keep the draw rates the same if they absolutely must, just get rid of the other characters.

    I too don't understand why, if they're going to buff/feature specific characters they don't also increase their odds in the token pulls.


    they usually do, but i think they been lazy lately and been copying and pasting heroic page to some events.

    For WoM & Divine Champs, the draw is the same as heroic. HOWEVER, the cost of a 40 cover pack is 1.2k LESS than a heroic's. So. . . that means if you're looking to buy legendary tokens, you save by buying these packs rather than the regular heroic.

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