Cover Pack Percentages are a Scam

Unknown

If you look at the percentages displayed in the info screen for event tokens, you will see that 2* characters are supposed to have about a 70% chance of showing up, which means almost one out of every three covers should be 3* or higher. I get a 3* or better about once or twice a month and I am not the only one. That should be impossible if the percentages are accurate.

notamutant

darthpoo wrote:

If you look at the percentages displayed in the info screen for event tokens, you will see that 2* characters are supposed to have about a 70% chance of showing up, which means almost one out of every three covers should be 3* or higher. I get a 3* or better about once or twice a month and I am not the only one. That should be impossible if the percentages are accurate.

First off, this is the wrong section of the forum to post this and should be removed by a mod. Second off, that isn't how statistics works. As someone who has pulled more tokens than likely anyone else on the forum, I can say flat out you are wrong.

Unknown

Your odd don't stack. It always the same when you open another token.

Blahahah

notamutant is the sage of token openings.

If he says thats how it is, then thats how it must be.

There can be no other way.

GothicKratos

Yeah, that's not really how statistics actually work. If there's a 20% chance of success and you make five draws, that doesn't actually mean you're guaranteed a win - it means it draw has a 20% draw for each chance.

Dayv

Moved to General Discussion. I was tempted to just make it disappear because "anecdote" is not the singular form of "data".

Eddiemon

darthpoo wrote:

If you look at the percentages displayed in the info screen for event tokens, you will see that 2* characters are supposed to have about a 70% chance of showing up, which means almost one out of every three covers should be 3* or higher. I get a 3* or better about once or twice a month and I am not the only one. That should be impossible if the percentages are accurate.

You left out the bit about how many token a month you acquire. If you acquire around 8 - 9 tokens per month that seems about right.

puppychow

I play enough pve to get a token per sub, and event tokens tend to have fairly good draw rate for gold. I'm getting at least one gold per week, if not more often. Out of my 10 pk for top 50 season, I just got 4 gold. 4/10 is extremely good, although they were all sold for iso. >>

My point is that if you're getting only 1 gold per month, you need to participate more in pve events and collect event tokens.

Unknown

I play enough to get an event token for each sub and I get at least one per pvp and usually two. Of course, since I posted this, I got two golds from season rewards. I understand that statistics won't dictate that you get 3 gold out of every 10 you open, but if you do it long enough, it should balance out to somewhere in that ballpark. I have been playing this game since within two weeks that the game began, so I have opened hundreds of packs, so it is a good sample size. When I first started, seemed about the right number of gold, but for about the last year, hasn't been anywhere even close.

Vhailorx

I'm the past, people have gathered data for fairly large numbers of tokens (1k+), and the rates tracked the states percentages very well.

So perhaps it's better to say that the stated rates are true and therefore not a scam. But it's fair to say that the rates are quite low, presumably to incentivize pack purchases and extend the gameplay grind.

MojoWild

It's like a roulette wheel, each spin is a new spin, and every token is a new token, though not all odds are equal.
As I've said before in other posts, if you flip a coin a hundred times, and you only get heads 25 times, that doesn't mean the 50% odds to get heads is bogus.

Unknown

Yeah, but if you flip a coin 1000 times and only get tails 200, it is starting to become far less likely that it is legit.

tanis3303

Please never go to a casino. Or do. I'm not sure which...

Unknown

Worked at a casino for 6 years. They don't have to scam, because they know with enough spins of the roulette wheel, or what game you want to use as an example, they will get to the right percentages. If they aren't getting there long enough, they will find out why.

Unknown

darthpoo wrote:

Yeah, but if you flip a coin 1000 times and only get tails 200, it is starting to become far less likely that it is legit.

You will go through good times and bad. I just got my 5x heroic packs from season rewards... all 2*'s. But, a few days ago I got 2 4* Elektra covers in the same day (from reward packs). Same thing happened a couple weeks ago, got 2 4* Starlord covers (maybe the game just wants to cover the worst 4*'s for me).

Unknown

You can definitely go through bad streaks, just gets tough to take when you are looking at 5-6 months worth and hundreds of tokens and falling so short of what the odds would suggest you should be getting.

Nellyson

darthpoo wrote:

I play enough to get an event token for each sub and I get at least one per pvp and usually two. Of course, since I posted this, I got two golds from season rewards. I understand that statistics won't dictate that you get 3 gold out of every 10 you open, but if you do it long enough, it should balance out to somewhere in that ballpark. I have been playing this game since within two weeks that the game began, so I have opened hundreds of packs, so it is a good sample size. When I first started, seemed about the right number of gold, but for about the last year, hasn't been anywhere even close.

Ummmm...still no. That's not how probability works either. Thus, the dire need for America to improve in math and science. The more tokens you open, the lower your probability of getting a gold cover becomes. It multiplies. So basically you take .3 for 30% and keep multiplying them for the number of covers you open. That's what you should expect. Not actually 30%.

Unknown

You don't lower your probability of drawing a gold card genius. You just raise the probability you will see more non-golds, so what you said is completely incorrect. The more tokens you open, the more of each you are likely to see. So your snide little comment about Americans doesn't really work out so well.

Vhailorx

Nellyson wrote:

darthpoo wrote:

I play enough to get an event token for each sub and I get at least one per pvp and usually two. Of course, since I posted this, I got two golds from season rewards. I understand that statistics won't dictate that you get 3 gold out of every 10 you open, but if you do it long enough, it should balance out to somewhere in that ballpark. I have been playing this game since within two weeks that the game began, so I have opened hundreds of packs, so it is a good sample size. When I first started, seemed about the right number of gold, but for about the last year, hasn't been anywhere even close.

Ummmm...still no. That's not how probability works either. Thus, the dire need for America to improve in math and science. The more tokens you open, the lower your probability of getting a gold cover becomes. It multiplies. So basically you take .3 for 30% and keep multiplying them for the number of covers you open. That's what you should expect. Not actually 30%.

Thats not it either! You only multiply the probability of you want to know the chance of every pull producing a gold cover (so if 1 token has a 30% of being a gold cover, then if you open 2 tokens you have a 9% of BOTH being gold). Opening multiple tokens does not decrease your chances of getting a gold. Each token has no effect on the subsequent token (unless they are vault tokens).

Unknown

What you are talking about is if I was betting on a type to show up on any given draw. I agree on that point. So if you were playing roulette and black has hit 5 times in a row, that doesn't mean the next one is going to be red. Streaks happen. But if there were no green and you could bet on what number of spins out of a thousand is going to come up red, the smart money is going to be within 50 of 500.

CrookedKnight

To get the chance of opening a bunch of tokens and getting at least one good cover, the simplest way to figure it is to multiply out the chance that you don't get what you want. That gives you the chance that your token pulls will come up completely empty, and whatever's left is the probability that you'll get at least one of the thing you want.

So if there's a 70% chance of getting a 2*, and you have five tokens, you multiply .7*.7*.7*.7*.7 and get .168 - a 16.8% chance that you'll just get five 2* covers in a row. That leaves an 83.2% chance that you'll strike gold at least once.