***** Silver Surfer (Skyrider) *****

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Comments

  • 260? Math shows you need 307... get opening!!! icon_e_smile.gif
  • Warbringa
    Warbringa Posts: 1,256 Chairperson of the Boards
    I hope they stick to making 5* the really powerful galactic heroes such as Surfer or super powerful Earth heroes/villains etc. I don't want to see a 5* BW or IM or Captain America or Wolverine etc. I am looking forward to 5* Thanos icon_twisted.gif
  • moogles85
    moogles85 Posts: 177 Tile Toppler
    notamutant wrote:
    It is going to be another day or two before I get my Silver Surfer video up. I spent 2 hours straight, and then another 2 hours on and off opening 40 packs to stockpile 260 legendary tokens. I suppose if someone had 15k to spend on a game for one character, he would be able to hire someone to open the packs for him. I wish there was an option when opening a pack to just have all the covers go straight to your inventory rather than sitting there clicking for a minute. I know they didn't expect people to buy dozens of packs in a row, but it is still annoying not having that option. It makes it so much harder in my sandbox account to unlock new characters to show off for you guys. They should give me special rights on my sandbox account to unlock characters since I am basically providing free advertising for the game on Youtube. I am getting carpel tunnel syndrome from clicking on the covers for so long.

    Instead of clicking 40 times, you can forcefully close the game and re-open it. All the covers from the 40-pack should be in your roster.

    If you don't want to scroll through the covers, select silver surfer and train his powers and see if any more are available.
  • Or use a macro to click for you.
  • udonomefoo
    udonomefoo Posts: 1,630 Chairperson of the Boards
    My jaw dropped before I got to the part where it's a sandbox account. icon_lol.gif
  • Anyone fought one yet?
  • notamutant
    notamutant Posts: 855 Critical Contributor
    barrok wrote:
    260? Math shows you need 307... get opening!!! icon_e_smile.gif

    13 covers. 5% chance means 1 in 20 will be SS. So 20x13=260.

    I can't close the game and reopen to go faster, although it would mean less clicking. The time it takes to close Steam, have that stupid Steam update window pop up, synch game data with Steam, re-launch the game, then get back to the purchase screen takes as long as just clicking through. I am not sure which is more annoying.
  • notamutant wrote:
    barrok wrote:
    260? Math shows you need 307... get opening!!! icon_e_smile.gif

    13 covers. 5% chance means 1 in 20 will be SS. So 20x13=260.

    I can't close the game and reopen to go faster, although it would mean less clicking. The time it takes to close Steam, have that stupid Steam update window pop up, synch game data with Steam, re-launch the game, then get back to the purchase screen takes as long as just clicking through. I am not sure which is more annoying.


    You are assuming that each cover you get will not be a duplicate. When you factor duplicates in, it's around 307.
  • AXP_isme
    AXP_isme Posts: 809 Critical Contributor
    Just imagine the pain you'll have to endure if you want to re-spec for a subsequent test run.
  • notamutant
    notamutant Posts: 855 Critical Contributor
    barrok wrote:
    notamutant wrote:
    barrok wrote:
    260? Math shows you need 307... get opening!!! icon_e_smile.gif

    13 covers. 5% chance means 1 in 20 will be SS. So 20x13=260.

    I can't close the game and reopen to go faster, although it would mean less clicking. The time it takes to close Steam, have that stupid Steam update window pop up, synch game data with Steam, re-launch the game, then get back to the purchase screen takes as long as just clicking through. I am not sure which is more annoying.


    You are assuming that each cover you get will not be a duplicate. When you factor duplicates in, it's around 307.

    Well, statistically, you should have an equal chance of each color cover, so it should statistically come out to 260. You are right it is entirely possible I will need more. I could have him fully covered in 13 tries, or have no covers after 200 tokens. I have had such bad luck before when going for specific 4 star covers. My goal in doing this was more to demonstrate whether or not it was possible to whale up for the new 5 stars. I would guess it will be much easier when the percentage goes up to 10%, even if it won't necessarily be for the same character.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    notamutant wrote:
    Well, statistically, you should have an equal chance of each color cover, so it should statistically come out to 260.
    That's not how it works. Once you get a 5th cover of any color, your chances of getting a usable cover is no longer 5%
  • notamutant
    notamutant Posts: 855 Critical Contributor
    simonsez wrote:
    notamutant wrote:
    Well, statistically, you should have an equal chance of each color cover, so it should statistically come out to 260.
    That's not how it works. Once you get a 5th cover of any color, your chances of getting a usable cover is no longer 5%

    Uh, no. You see, you are mixing up the odds at the beginning with the odds in the middle. Certainly your odds will change as you pull more covers of a specific type, but at the beginning, you have an equal chance of any of the three colors. This is distributed evenly. So at the beginning, those odds are correct. If it was a perfectly average pull, it would be something like 5/4/4.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    notamutant wrote:
    Uh, no. You see, you are mixing up the odds at the beginning with the odds in the middle.
    I'm not mixing anything up. Your odds are getting a cover will never be greater than 5%. But at some point, unless you are unusually lucky in the sequence of colors you pull, your odds of getting a USABLE cover WILL BE LESS THAN 5%. Therefore, starting from zero covers to the point at which you have 13 USABLE covers, your average odds of having gotten a usable cover on a given pull will, many more times than not, have to be less than 5%.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    I just wrote a quick sim that simulates the draws. The average number of draws needed to get 13 usable covers is 307. If you want the source code, I'll post it.
  • notamutant
    notamutant Posts: 855 Critical Contributor
    simonsez wrote:
    I just wrote a quick sim that simulates the draws. The average number of draws needed to get 13 usable covers is 307. If you want the source code, I'll post it.

    Just post the formula. It has been like 7 years since I took my college statistics course, and three years since I studied stats for the GMATs, but hopefully it will ring a bell.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's not a formula, it's a simulation.
  • GritsNGravy
    GritsNGravy Posts: 114 Tile Toppler
    @simonsez, you inspired me to simulate this in code too, and yes I've got the same result 307 with the current drop rates.

    I was having fun and went a little further showing # of legendary tokens needed for the upcoming 10% drop rate with 3 different 5* characters.

    To get one of the 3 characters maxed:
    Average 347 tokens with 3 wasted covers

    To get all 3 characters maxed
    Average 586 tokens with 20 wasted covers

    This will be a long haul people:)
  • Nonce Equitaur 2
    Nonce Equitaur 2 Posts: 2,269 Chairperson of the Boards
    barrok wrote:
    Anyone fought one yet?

    I fought one. With just one blue cover and no levels it still took awhile to take him down.
  • simonsez
    simonsez Posts: 4,663 Chairperson of the Boards
    To get all 3 characters maxed
    Average 586 tokens with 20 wasted covers
    Good job taking it to the next step!
    And thanks for the 307 confirmation.

    BTW, my son is majoring in stat at Columbia, so I was curious to see if this might be an interesting puzzle for him to work out the math, but he had the same attitude I did, ie "screw it, just spend 5 minutes and write a sim", and he got 307 as well.
  • Thinking about how long would take to get an average 307 legendary tokens to max surfer, I started wondering the best path.

    Best 1st cover seems undoubtedly blue, for the passive and minor heal helps a bit since he will always tank his colors. The second seems to be a second blue, for more healing, because red is too weak still and black uses more ap than it gets back.

    For 3rd I was thinking that a 210 surfer wouldn't be better than a 300, the red damage still too low. It would need 3-4 red covers to have a lv cap high enough for base + lv/ratio damage. Black needs about 4 covers to get better.

    So the path seems like 3 blue, then about same until you get 3+ red OR black, as a 311, 302 or 320 seem as good as 300.

    While they said he would be usable with fewer covers, that's only for match damage, health and the blue cover (both aspects), I don't see him being really good until 6+ covers. Even tho I agree that 6 is better than a 4* with 8ish covers, the time it takes for him to get 6 (and they must be either 303 or 330) still way, way above the time to get a 8-10 cover 4* (specially with the legendary tokens introduction).

    Thoughts?