Token pulls...what is going on?

Unknown

So a recent update stated that the percentage chances of a 3* on a gold token was increasing.

Sorry, but it doesn't seem that way at all. I have just opened my 11th gold token, and received my 11th 2* cover. Seriously. I am now two weeks into daily Deadpool without getting a 3* from tacos and cannot remember the last 3* that popped out of a standard token.

Sure this might just be bad luck, but its REALLY bad. No improvement seen here at all.
Anyone else seeing this, or is it just bad luck after all?

CaptainFreaky

Hi - note that Taco Tokens were not effected by the changes to 3* drop rates. All other (heroic & event) tokens were changed EXCEPT for Taco tokens.

But, RNG can be a brutal god. I opened 17 heroics the other day that I had stockpiled, and even with the "new & improved" 3* drop rate, I got exactly ONE 3* cover - statistically unfortunate, but within the realm of possibility.

The golden rule on tokens has and always will be: expect the worst and be surprised with anything better. Or, assume every token will result in a Moonstone cover and be happy with anything else...!

orbitalint

Not to put a damper on things but I've gone 30+ heroic token pulls without any 3*, yeah at some point I started counting...

Forget about standard tokens. They don't publish those numbers but user data makes it seem like less 2.5% (viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227).

Chalk it up to bad luck even though I wouldn't have expected maybe more than 2 or 3 from what you are talking about (11 pulls at 28% for any 3* and 14 pulls at 10% in deadpool dailies). It is a small sample size and things ebb and flow.

Unknown

"Higher Chances of 3-stars in Packs
The percentage of 3-Star covers in Heroic and event packs is increasing! The percentage of the 1x Heroic pack that is 3-Star covers goes from about 23% to about 28% of the pack."

Well, yes, but at that same time they also put 8 or 9 characters that were out of circulation back into circulation. That's where the extra 5% comes from. The individual odds are still .6%.

Think of it this way: when you open a token there is not a big barrel with 1 of each character in it that you're randomly choosing one from. If that were the case then the odds for everyone would be 1/75 (or however many characters there are now). What is actually happening is there is a barrel with roughly 1 copy of every 4 star, 2 copies of every 3 star, and 20 copies of every 2 star. so they may have dumped those missing 3 stars back into the barrel, but its still overwhelmingly filled with 2 stars. One that resets every time you use it.

Short version: you were never going to get a 3 star every other token. The increase in odds is barely significant.

DFiPL

Since my run of crazy good luck with Ultron, event tokens I've gotten have been 2* Daken.

RNG evening out on me, clearly. Tacos, while unaffected, have ALSO been 2* for the most part (and less Daken-heavy), with the exception of a 1000 HP taco a couple days before Vision got introduced.

Unknown

11 is a small sample size. 30 is even a small sample size. Eventually you will open 6 of 10 golds and it will balance out. Talk to me when you get upwards of 100 pulls.

Odds are published, golden odds are approx 26% for any gold pull (3*/4*) with current 3* odds being .6% per character so .2% per cover of a particular color. Odds of pulling 0 in 11 pulls is (1-.26)^11 or 3.6%. You pulled a critical fail, but it does happen.

So what is going on is you are on a cold streak. Them's the breaks.

udonomefoo

I feel like I've been getting more golds, but it may be confirmation bias, or just a lucky streak.

jffdougan

Lerysh wrote:

11 is a small sample size. 30 is even a small sample size. Eventually you will open 6 of 10 golds and it will balance out. Talk to me when you get upwards of 100 pulls.

Odds are published, golden odds are approx 26% for any gold pull (3*/4*) with current 3* odds being .6% per character so .2% per cover of a particular color. Odds of pulling 0 in 11 pulls is (1-.26)^11 or 3.6%. You pulled a critical fail, but it does happen.

So what is going on is you are on a cold streak. Them's the breaks.

Yep. It fell way off the front page, but I've posted a list of the expected distributions from Heroic 10-packs someplace in the Tips & Guides forum.

Unknown

Yeah, that's reasonable. My 12th was a 2* as well. I know its anecdotal, but this FEELS worse than it ever has been.

Maybe its because its harder for me now to get some golds, as matches are harder, scaling etc, even getting to 300 in PvP chews up so many health packs that I feel the rewards should be better.

Either way, it remains feeling ****, to go to so much effort and be rewarded with a 2*.

Unknown

Treading that line between "whining" and "stating the obvious..."

My pulls have been bad lately, but they've always been bad overall, so there's that. I did get a couple Golds from the Ultron 10-pack (and some DESPERATELY needed HP), so that was sweet.

What's frustrating for me personally is that I've been doing well enough to get a bunch more tokens theoretically "above" standards (Heroics, PvE specific, Tacos), but I'm still drawing at least 19 out of 20 Moonstones, 2* Dakens, etc.

Meh. Whaddayagonnado, eh?

DBC

Unknown

Based on my most recent pulls, I'm pretty sure the increased odds mean they increased the chance of pulling a rare from 23% to .28%, and they kept the Taco odds the same at .23%

You get whale points if you see what I did there.

Malcrof

theHappyDance wrote:

Based on my most recent pulls, I'm pretty sure the increased odds mean they increased the chance of pulling a rare from 23% to .28%, and they kept the Taco odds the same at .23%

You get whale points if you see what I did there.

I have to disagree.. this past week has been one of my best with tokens (heroic, pvp, and event).

Even though i sold 2 covers (frustrating when transitioning), i am seeing that gold emblem show up more lately.. now if it would just give me the RIGHT covers!!

ZootSax

To be honest, I haven't noticed much difference in the pull rates (my exceptionally poor luck with Taco tokens notwithstanding), but given the relatively small number of tokens I've opened (ie, not in the 1,000's), this is to be expected.

The strange thing for me is that every gold cover I have opened from tokens since Ultron ended has been Psylocke. She's been vaulted practically my entire time playing this game, yet the moment vaulting stops she's apparently decided to catch up in a real hurry. Two of them even came from standard tokens ...and I still have my daily reward Psylocke cover coming in a few days, not to mention the Deadpool one this week. At my current rate of cover acquisition for her, I'll have two fully covered ones by the end of next month

Unknown

As posted in my previous thread about this, I have received 14 3 stars out of 30 tokens...and I have played the lottery several times not even getting 1 number, so I have to rule out luck at this point and credit the boost!

TLCstormz

I still believe that time and day has an effect on the "odds."

I always had a guaranteed gold within 5 or so tokens, during certain hours on certain days. And I'd do today several times a week. For months.

My luck ran out a few days ago, because I opened about 20 standards, 10 tacos, 5 event tokens, and 15 heroics and got NOTHING!

I'm now on strike for a while.....

(and weeping)

Wonko33

Twombley wrote:

So a recent update stated that the percentage chances of a 3* on a gold token was increasing.

Sorry, but it doesn't seem that way at all. I have just opened my 11th gold token, and received my 11th 2* cover. Seriously. I am now two weeks into daily Deadpool without getting a 3* from tacos and cannot remember the last 3* that popped out of a standard token.

Sure this might just be bad luck, but its REALLY bad. No improvement seen here at all.
Anyone else seeing this, or is it just bad luck after all?

great anecdote

Wonko33

orbitalint wrote:

Not to put a damper on things but I've gone 30+ heroic token pulls without any 3*, yeah at some point I started counting...

Forget about standard tokens. They don't publish those numbers but user data makes it seem like less 2.5% (viewtopic.php?f=6&t=1227).

Chalk it up to bad luck even though I wouldn't have expected maybe more than 2 or 3 from what you are talking about (11 pulls at 28% for any 3* and 14 pulls at 10% in deadpool dailies). It is a small sample size and things ebb and flow.

that's 4% chance for the heroic and 23% for the taco, not super unlikely

Malcrof

This is sad, had 10 standard recruit tokens banked, saw 2* Wolvie was an essential for the next PVE.. removed him long ago from my roster...sold more covers then you can imagine.. now i need him..

2 golds from the 10 tokens, one of then Patch.... no 2* when i need it, but 3*'s raining down lol

Unknown

In the 10 pack thread in the event forum I posted stats from 87 pulls.
In my token binge I pulled:
9/37 from heroic tokens
15/50 pulls from 10 packs.

Heroic token rate - 24.3%
10-pack rate - 30%

Combined rate of 27.5%. Definitely in line with their published rates.

Flip a coin 100 times and you should get roughly 50 of each outcome, but it's not a guarantee. The more flips, the closer to 50% you should get on a particular outcome, but there will certainly be some streaks in there as well.


If there's ever a batch open option for standard tokens maybe I can do some spading on that. Currently up to 666 standards.

Malcrof

j12601 wrote:

If there's ever a batch open option for standard tokens maybe I can do some spading on that. Currently up to 666 standards.

They should let you trade that for Devil Dino

Unknown

It's easy enough to keep track of your token pulls on a notepad. There's also a community spreadsheet where people updated their pulls regularly for awhile.

My pulls since I started doing it on my own (2014/12/12 - after they put 4Thor into packs I opened most of my saved up tokens - got none lol):

Standards: 643 1*, 117 2*, 20 3*

Heroics (stated odds @ 16.4%): 129 2*, 12 3*, 2 4* -> Actual pull rate of 9.7%
(21%): 179, 44, 1 -> Actual pull rate of 20%
(28%): 8, 2 -> Actual pull rate of 25%

10-Packs (pre-change): 36/160 -> Actual pull rate of 22.5%
(post-change): 8/40 -> Actual pull rate of 20%

Ultron Reward Packs (25.7%): 33, 9, 5 -> Actual pull rate of 29.8%
The five 4* pulls (one HB) from Ultron packs matched the amount of 4*s I've pulled from all other packs combined.