arevala said: Hi all, i ve bougth about 10 320 gems bundles since m20 was out, and got 3 rares total (beside the guaranteed), and all dupes (yeah, all).Rates are not as they are indicated, d3 are not communicating them propperly, just look at the ammount of aquirable mythics of each set and maybe youll be coser to the real numbers (m20, as WAR has lot of exclusives).I'm tired of throwing my gems to get not even a fair ammount of mana shards. The game is now set to give fair pulls only with elite packs or booster crafting. I'm really upset to notice how they lie with real rates. Not casual: all dupes, I mean, there are a lot of rares, a lot! Help me to feel not alone
jtwood said: I bought two M20 PPs yesterday and got 2 mythics and 4 raresVariance sucks and I'm sorry it went against youHopefully, you got enough orbs to craft something up
starfall said: Yeah, random numbers are funny like that.Just at the moment I am convinced that 120j packs for ELD are spitting at mythics and masterpieces at a higher rate than advertised, and I suspect that even if somebody were to show me the statistics there I would continue to open them
People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.
Boogeyman said: People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD. There is also a propensity to open the same dupe over and Over and OVER! How infuriating. It's almost as if they are saying, what are you going to do about it?!
Boogeyman said:People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.
The argument can always be used, "It's just you!" But drop rates are terrible comparatively to 1 year ago and even two years ago, in general.
Volrak said: People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD. There's certainly something to be said for reducing variance below what is random to avoid runs of extreme bad luck. Many games do this, and it can definitely help to control the feel-bad.There's also something to be said for people in general to try to understand statistics; its use in life goes far beyond games. Something to consider is that if you have a 50% chance of tails on each coin flip, it means something quite different to landing tails on every pair of coin flips.
ih8regin said: The trouble is, to determine the ACTUAL drop rate of mythics (or any other type of cards) out of a pack, one has to gather statistics, which means pay for those packs, and pay A LOT. And given that 100 yellows is about $5 worth in the shop (less discounts), getting 50 PPs (where the statistics actually start, everything else can be shooed off with "it's fluctuations" phrase, aka "it's just you") costs $1500. Now, who can be this generous just to determine an upper bound for the mythics drop rate? No sane person I believe. And if someone does collect such statistics, they sit with this info and not disclose it, as information is money to those that have it. We common people are left with whatever is displayed, and CANNOT know whether they lie at us. And from what I see, they may.
FindingHeart8 said: Any data to share on Eldraine? I'm curious to hear how close it is to the displayed percentages.
Volrak said:Nobody's entered pack data for ELD. I can't speak for why others haven't, but for me, it's because in all the years of data collection, the published drop rates (once they became published) have always matched the observed statistics well, whether it's been ordinary packs, elite packs, or packs with massively bugged drop rates. In short, data collection has felt superfluous for a while now.
Firstofhisname419 said: Boogeyman said:People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD. Well, at least you demonstrated your point about people not understanding statistics...
Boogeyman said: Firstofhisname419 said: Boogeyman said:People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD. Well, at least you demonstrated your point about people not understanding statistics... The funny thing is, I know statistics, and I understand what I said is absurd when defined by statistics. That is the point! MOST people do not understand stats and never will, BUT still have expectations, feelings, and what they see right in front of them. So when somebody says, your chances are 1 in 4, most people take that as, I will at least receive 1 in 4. They expect it. If they receive 0 out of 4, they FEEL slighted. My point is, using stats to convey your chances to an unknowing population is only going to hurt the company as the people will feel slighted.