Why so hard!!

arevala

Hi all, i ve bougth about 10 320 gems bundles since m20 was out, and got 3 rares total (beside the guaranteed), and all dupes (yeah, all).
Rates are not as they are indicated, d3 are not communicating them propperly, just look at the ammount of aquirable mythics of each set and maybe youll be coser to the real numbers (m20, as WAR has lot of exclusives).

I'm tired of throwing my gems to get not even a fair ammount of mana shards. The game is now set to give fair pulls only with elite packs or booster crafting. I'm really upset to notice how they lie with real rates. Not casual: all dupes, I mean, there are a lot of rares, a lot! Help me to feel not alone

jtwood

I bought two M20 PPs yesterday and got 2 mythics and 4 rares

Variance sucks and I'm sorry it went against you

Hopefully, you got enough orbs to craft something up

Rasalghul

@arevala You are not alone to experience that but that’s the way it is.

I started with a 3 mythics PP but the next 10-12 gave me only 1 other mythic.

Nevertheless I advise you to play the Trial of the Planes event at the reduced price. The single ELD you get gives you good material: 2 packs since yesterday 1 mythic and 1 common non dupe, but 2 dupe rares.

Boogeyman

arevala said:

Hi all, i ve bougth about 10 320 gems bundles since m20 was out, and got 3 rares total (beside the guaranteed), and all dupes (yeah, all).
Rates are not as they are indicated, d3 are not communicating them propperly, just look at the ammount of aquirable mythics of each set and maybe youll be coser to the real numbers (m20, as WAR has lot of exclusives).

I'm tired of throwing my gems to get not even a fair ammount of mana shards. The game is now set to give fair pulls only with elite packs or booster crafting. I'm really upset to notice how they lie with real rates. Not casual: all dupes, I mean, there are a lot of rares, a lot! Help me to feel not alone

No, this is different than the past.  The argument can always be used, "It's just you!"  But drop rates are terrible comparatively to 1 year ago and even two years ago, in general.  

I have noticed that they are giving you more chances to open packs, but less mythic/rares pulls from those packs.  On the venting thread, people opened up 14 320 packs and got 1 non-dupe mythic....   That's called not fun, dishonest, and for the money spent, a rip-off.  I mean that's $150+ for one set out of what, 15 sets?

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.  There is also a propensity to open the same dupe over and Over and OVER!  How infuriating.  It's almost as if they are saying, what are you going to do about it?!

The answer?  How about this new subscription for $30 a month?  You know what... maybe, but NOT after being ignored and abused?  No thanks.  

jtwood

jtwood said:

I bought two M20 PPs yesterday and got 2 mythics and 4 rares

Variance sucks and I'm sorry it went against you

Hopefully, you got enough orbs to craft something up

My next PP was devoid of any rare or mythic, and I got 4x Moat Piranha

Variance!

Unknown

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arevala

starfall said:

Yeah, random numbers are funny like that.

Just at the moment I am convinced that 120j packs for ELD are spitting at mythics and masterpieces at a higher rate than advertised, and I suspect that even if somebody were to show me the statistics there I would continue to open them

yeah, it was like that in RIX set. Some time ago real numbers were shown, then they set up all % as if they worked at the same rates but the pulls show us the Real chance of getting a mythic

arevala

And duppes are a long ago known issue. they dont want to give us new rares. all cards you own is listed and purposely dupped by AI.

I remember how pleased we were when booster crafting was released, but dupe problem was never (not intended to be) solved 

Volrak

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.

There's certainly something to be said for reducing variance below what is random to avoid runs of extreme bad luck.  Many games do this, and it can definitely help to control the feel-bad.

There's also something to be said for people in general to try to understand statistics; its use in life goes far beyond games.  Something to consider is that if you have a 50% chance of tails on each coin flip, it means something quite different to landing tails on every pair of coin flips.

Aeroplane

Well, I'm at 0 mythics from 11pp, but 3 mythics from reward event boosters with latest set. go figure...

Mburn7

Boogeyman said:

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.  There is also a propensity to open the same dupe over and Over and OVER!  How infuriating.  It's almost as if they are saying, what are you going to do about it?!

Hmm, logically you're correct on this, but that's not actually how it works.

You see, past results don't actually have an effect on future results.

So, say, a 50% chance of getting a mythic doesn't mean you WILL get a mythic every other pack.

It means you SHOULD, on average, get one.

In reality you can just fail that coin flip 100 times in a row, and still have the same 50% chance on the next one.

This is the fallacy of "being due" that has cost a lot of gamblers a lot of money (and caused anyone who has ever played an XCOM game a whole lot of pain)

Narcoticsagent

I haven't had to buy many packs since VIP came out but prior to VIP I always opened at least 25 PP of each new set and frequently closer to 40PP. My experience has been that the drop rates are pretty spot on once the sample size gets big enough. 

My 2 exceptions were Ixalan where I only got a mythic in about 12% of the PPs which I think may have been the sets actual drop rate. And the first Ravnica set when I opened  a mythic in just under 45% of my PPs.

Firstofhisname419

Boogeyman said:

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.  

Well, at least you demonstrated your point about people not understanding statistics...

ih8regin

 The argument can always be used, "It's just you!"  But drop rates are terrible comparatively to 1 year ago and even two years ago, in general.  

The trouble is, to determine the ACTUAL drop rate of mythics (or any other type of cards) out of a pack, one has to gather statistics, which means pay for those packs, and pay A LOT. And given that 100 yellows is about $5 worth in the shop (less discounts), getting 50 PPs (where the statistics actually start, everything else can be shooed off with "it's fluctuations" phrase, aka "it's just you") costs $1500. Now, who can be this generous just to determine an upper bound for the mythics drop rate? No sane person I believe. And if someone does collect such statistics, they sit with this info and not disclose it, as information is money to those that have it. We common people are left with whatever is displayed, and CANNOT know whether they lie at us. And from what I see, they may.

FindingHeart8

Volrak said:

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.

There's certainly something to be said for reducing variance below what is random to avoid runs of extreme bad luck.  Many games do this, and it can definitely help to control the feel-bad.

There's also something to be said for people in general to try to understand statistics; its use in life goes far beyond games.  Something to consider is that if you have a 50% chance of tails on each coin flip, it means something quite different to landing tails on every pair of coin flips.

Any data to share on Eldraine? I'm curious to hear how close it is to the displayed percentages.

Volrak

ih8regin said:

The trouble is, to determine the ACTUAL drop rate of mythics (or any other type of cards) out of a pack, one has to gather statistics, which means pay for those packs, and pay A LOT. And given that 100 yellows is about $5 worth in the shop (less discounts), getting 50 PPs (where the statistics actually start, everything else can be shooed off with "it's fluctuations" phrase, aka "it's just you") costs $1500. Now, who can be this generous just to determine an upper bound for the mythics drop rate? No sane person I believe. And if someone does collect such statistics, they sit with this info and not disclose it, as information is money to those that have it. We common people are left with whatever is displayed, and CANNOT know whether they lie at us. And from what I see, they may.

Here, have some free information:
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE

FindingHeart8 said:

Any data to share on Eldraine? I'm curious to hear how close it is to the displayed percentages.

Nobody's entered pack data for ELD.  I can't speak for why others haven't, but for me, it's because in all the years of data collection, the published drop rates (once they became published) have always matched the observed statistics well, whether it's been ordinary packs, elite packs, or packs with massively bugged drop rates.  In short, data collection has felt superfluous for a while now.

jtwood

Volrak said:

Nobody's entered pack data for ELD.  I can't speak for why others haven't, but for me, it's because in all the years of data collection, the published drop rates (once they became published) have always matched the observed statistics well, whether it's been ordinary packs, elite packs, or packs with massively bugged drop rates.  In short, data collection has felt superfluous for a while now.

Some people will never want to hear this input. They feel slighted and there’s no overcoming it. I get absurdly upset that people can’t accept information like this. It’s not one of my better character traits. 😄

jtwood

And then I just crossed paths with this on the Internet today

Boogeyman

Firstofhisname419 said:

Boogeyman said:

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.  

Well, at least you demonstrated your point about people not understanding statistics...

The funny thing is, I know statistics, and I understand what I said is absurd when defined by statistics.  That is the point!  MOST people do not understand stats and never will, BUT still have expectations, feelings, and what they see right in front of them.  

So when somebody says, your chances are 1 in 4, most people take that as, I will at least receive 1 in 4.  They expect it.  If they receive 0 out of 4, they FEEL slighted. 

My point is, using stats to convey your chances to an unknowing population is only going to hurt the company as the people will feel slighted.  

jtwood

Boogeyman said:

Firstofhisname419 said:

Boogeyman said:

People DO NOT understand statistics, so when they see 30% chance for a mythic, that should mean a new mythic every 3-4 sets opened, PERIOD.  

Well, at least you demonstrated your point about people not understanding statistics...

The funny thing is, I know statistics, and I understand what I said is absurd when defined by statistics.  That is the point!  MOST people do not understand stats and never will, BUT still have expectations, feelings, and what they see right in front of them.  

So when somebody says, your chances are 1 in 4, most people take that as, I will at least receive 1 in 4.  They expect it.  If they receive 0 out of 4, they FEEL slighted. 

My point is, using stats to convey your chances to an unknowing population is only going to hurt the company as the people will feel slighted. 

I agree. % odds should be accompanied by some sort of likelihood distribution, as well, to indicate the number of people expected to over/underachieve against the mean.