Houdin said: At one point I pulled the same four mythics 12 times in a row.So help me if I'm wrong here.That is an individual event of 4 out of 24. So 1/6.For each time one of those same cards was pulled consecutively the math runs as 1/6 × 1/6 × etc to 1/6 choose twelve.Which gives me a probability of occurrence for the set of....One in two billion, one hundred and 76 million seven hundred and eighty two thousand, three hundred and thirty six.
Houdin said: So just as an interest moment. Even though with booster crafting coming in now this becomes a bit of a moot point, but it interests me and I know many others, So I thought I'd get some opinions. I know there is much debate whether card draw is weighted in some way. I firmly believe the code is written to weight for cards you already have. Which is why some of us have multiples of cards that others have been chasing forever. Just as a moment of statistics. I went back to take alook at the mythic order I pulled from amonkhet that I tracked.At one point I pulled the same four mythics 12 times in a row.So help me if I'm wrong here.That is an individual event of 4 out of 24. So 1/6.For each time one of those same cards was pulled consecutively the math runs as 1/6 × 1/6 × etc to 1/6 choose twelve.Which gives me a probability of occurrence for the set of....One in two billion, one hundred and 76 million seven hundred and eighty two thousand, three hundred and thirty six.Which seems a bit not well...random. lolNow having looked at that kind of math. This is what I believe occurs after thinking about it for the last two years.. New set comes out.You have no mythics.The set contains 25 different mythics.We will call them Group A - 12 cards Group B - 8 cardsGroup C - 5 cards.The rng gods smile on you and a mythic appears.The code checks to see if you have any cards. You do not so it weights the group's as follows.A = 60% B = 40%C = 10%You receive your card based on those odds.Time passes and you get another mythic.The code checks to see you do have one.Instantly that card receives a 50% probability.The remaining group's percentages are now calculated from the remaining 50% probability.I'm sure it's more complicated but something like that explains the groupings of cards to the individual player.
The code checks to see you do have one [mythic].Instantly that card receives a 50% probability.The remaining group's percentages are now calculated from the remaining 50% probability.
span_argoman said: Thanks @Volrak for putting this to rest.
Volrak said: span_argoman said: Thanks @Volrak for putting this to rest. No worries - but to be clear, the lack of anything strange in this analysis doesn't prove that nothing strange can ever possibly occur. I'm always interested in things that look odd (even if I expect them to typically be false alarms).
Houdin said: Just to make an example. In two years I never once pulled. Pull from tomorrow. In all the hundreds of origins packs. Since crafting the card I have gotten it 3 times. The same holds true for other crafted cards. Having never received them before, now that I have them I am pulling duplicates of the cards.I do realize that statistically this is a possible event although on the outskirts of improbable.