I am always conflicted when I see these posts. Typically if it is a random person who creates an account just for the purpose of screaming foul, I dismiss the post. After all, the odds of getting 6 Uncaged the Menageries are the exact same odds of getting any 6 cards in a specific order. So say, Uncaged, Swarm, Swarm, Sunmare, Uncaged, Swarm has the same odds (in that sequence) as 6 of the same card. In other words, with enough people ripping open packs and with assumed randomness, someone is going to get a sequence that doesn't smell remotely random.
I would also add that I heard from a little birdy a long time ago that the probability rates of drops weren't evenly distributed within the rarity structure. Someone had apparently looked under the hood and found the drop rates for cards such as Olivia and Drowner to be far lower than other mythic level cards during those blocks. Anyway, I can't confirm this one way or another, but there does seem to be evidence that card rates aren't evenly distributed even within the elite packs (based on the surveys on these forums). Although N was too small to reject any hypothesis.
But, I will say that after playing for a long time it does "feel" like there is an element of luck that is not evenly distributed across the player base. There are several players in my coalition who literally open a mythic in roughly every 10 packs. Others more like every 40 packs. And this effect has been persistent for over a year. It just seems so unlikely that the same people would keep pulling winning lottery tickets every single new set if the randomness was equivalent. Could your UID be linked to different drop rates? Could D3 then figure out what "luck" level generates the most revenue? Could this be a reason that they don't publish drop rates?
The only way we will ever have a more solid answer on this is to keep uploading our drop rates to Volrak's site and see if there is credible evidence to reject the hypothesis that all player drop rates are identical. Or of course D3 could actually communicate with us.
https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=545160007
Regarding the Elite Packs, they really need to draw three cards and let the player choose one. It's a compromise between keeping RNG packs while getting rid of these ridiculous boundary cases where you proc the same dupe repeatedly.
babar3355 said: I am always conflicted when I see these posts. Typically if it is a random person who creates an account just for the purpose of screaming foul, I dismiss the post. After all, the odds of getting 6 Uncaged the Menageries are the exact same odds of getting any 6 cards in a specific order. So say, Uncaged, Swarm, Swarm, Sunmare, Uncaged, Swarm has the same odds (in that sequence) as 6 of the same card. In other words, with enough people ripping open packs and with assumed randomness, someone is going to get a sequence that doesn't smell remotely random.I would also add that I heard from a little birdy a long time ago that the probability rates of drops weren't evenly distributed within the rarity structure. Someone had apparently looked under the hood and found the drop rates for cards such as Olivia and Drowner to be far lower than other mythic level cards during those blocks. Anyway, I can't confirm this one way or another, but there does seem to be evidence that card rates aren't evenly distributed even within the elite packs (based on the surveys on these forums). Although N was too small to reject any hypothesis.But, I will say that after playing for a long time it does "feel" like there is an element of luck that is not evenly distributed across the player base. There are several players in my coalition who literally open a mythic in roughly every 10 packs. Others more like every 40 packs. And this effect has been persistent for over a year. It just seems so unlikely that the same people would keep pulling winning lottery tickets every single new set if the randomness was equivalent. Could your UID be linked to different drop rates? Could D3 then figure out what "luck" level generates the most revenue? Could this be a reason that they don't publish drop rates?The only way we will ever have a more solid answer on this is to keep uploading our drop rates to Volrak's site and see if there is credible evidence to reject the hypothesis that all player drop rates are identical. Or of course D3 could actually communicate with us.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=545160007
Abenjes said: babar3355 said: I am always conflicted when I see these posts. Typically if it is a random person who creates an account just for the purpose of screaming foul, I dismiss the post. After all, the odds of getting 6 Uncaged the Menageries are the exact same odds of getting any 6 cards in a specific order. So say, Uncaged, Swarm, Swarm, Sunmare, Uncaged, Swarm has the same odds (in that sequence) as 6 of the same card. In other words, with enough people ripping open packs and with assumed randomness, someone is going to get a sequence that doesn't smell remotely random.I would also add that I heard from a little birdy a long time ago that the probability rates of drops weren't evenly distributed within the rarity structure. Someone had apparently looked under the hood and found the drop rates for cards such as Olivia and Drowner to be far lower than other mythic level cards during those blocks. Anyway, I can't confirm this one way or another, but there does seem to be evidence that card rates aren't evenly distributed even within the elite packs (based on the surveys on these forums). Although N was too small to reject any hypothesis.But, I will say that after playing for a long time it does "feel" like there is an element of luck that is not evenly distributed across the player base. There are several players in my coalition who literally open a mythic in roughly every 10 packs. Others more like every 40 packs. And this effect has been persistent for over a year. It just seems so unlikely that the same people would keep pulling winning lottery tickets every single new set if the randomness was equivalent. Could your UID be linked to different drop rates? Could D3 then figure out what "luck" level generates the most revenue? Could this be a reason that they don't publish drop rates?The only way we will ever have a more solid answer on this is to keep uploading our drop rates to Volrak's site and see if there is credible evidence to reject the hypothesis that all player drop rates are identical. Or of course D3 could actually communicate with us.https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1JUeuf0BcOlNHpt3dA7SQ838ws7AOlWMEz-4AAG2dYrE/edit#gid=545160007 interesting, I have long felt that specific players have been singled out and have a better drop rate, this benefits D3 by ensuring there are always players with good collections that will in theory increase the difficulty of matches.
Corn Noodles said: In the last 6 Elite Packs I have opened, I have received 6 Uncage the Menagerie in a row.
Corn Noodles said: I decided to wait a day to open the pack because I dreaded hitting the lottery of 6 in a row (roughly 1 in 150000).
Corn Noodles said: I posted the times I opened the packs because it has been demonstrated that the time you open packs has direct bearing on what you receive. This is a known fact. With crowd-sourced data, it was possible to get a number of cards as guaranteed drops. I don't know if they're still tracking this information, but I would be very surprised if they weren't.//Removed Coalition Reference -Brigby
babar3355 said:I would also add that I heard from a little birdy a long time ago that the probability rates of drops weren't evenly distributed within the rarity structure. Someone had apparently looked under the hood and found the drop rates for cards such as Olivia and Drowner to be far lower than other mythic level cards during those blocks.
babar3355 said:there does seem to be evidence that card rates aren't evenly distributed even within the elite packs (based on the surveys on these forums). Although N was too small to reject any hypothesis.
babar3355 said: But, I will say that after playing for a long time it does "feel" like there is an element of luck that is not evenly distributed across the player base. There are several players in my coalition who literally open a mythic in roughly every 10 packs. Others more like every 40 packs. And this effect has been persistent for over a year.
babar3355 said: The only way we will ever have a more solid answer on this is to keep uploading our drop rates to Volrak's site and see if there is credible evidence to reject the hypothesis that all player drop rates are identical. Or of course D3 could actually communicate with us.
Tilwin90 said: I still don't get why drop rates are not public.
yunnnn said: "The disheartening wasteful feeling of a big box full of duplicates". The general complaints about drop rates can be summed up as: 1. It feels bad to open a big box and get a single rare (a dupe of course). 2. Spending 20$-100$ for big boxes to get nothing new feels bad. 3. Getting dupes in the same booster pack is stupid and feels bad. 4. The relative low number of cards in the set vs the high number of mythics makes whaling feel bad. After a couple of boxes, everything is a dupe and you're only looking forward to the mythic, which may just never come. TL;DR: Once you've opened a couple of boxes, opening more almost always feels bad. This should not be the case in a game that is trying to get you to buy as much as possible! There is no feeling of progress made when everything is a dupe. And when it costs a relatively high amount, it is incredibly discouraging. There are many solutions to this, which people have already pointed out: 1. Remove dupes from the same booster pack. It will increase the morale of pack opening by miles. I've personally opened packs with 3 of the same cards in the same pack before. I've also opened big boxes with 3 of the same Mythic in the same big box. It was disgusting. I violently vomited over my screen, and needed emergency surgery. 2. There needs to be a better guarantee of high quality cards, especially when a big box costs 20$. The IAP in this game is way more expensive than other games, and the game operators need to realize this and compensate accordingly. 3. There is no progress made when everything opened is a dupe. Big Boxes need to give a special token, and 5 or 10 of these tokens can be traded in for any mythic or promo. The point here is to make it feel like the player is progressing. If someone sinks 200$ into the game and nothing happens... guess what? They are never going to iap again. 4. Have a hearthstone-esque guaranteed "pity" mythic after opening some packs. This is to balance out the randomness. D3, you don't want a player with simple bad luck to quit the game, as they will not contribute to your revenue stream anymore. You need to give them some incentive to keep opening packs, even if the luck does them wrong. The game operators need to provide a rewarding IAP experience. Right now, the most satisfied players are the non-IAPers who are glad to get whatever they can for free. It doesn't matter if the server crashes or cards don't work, because they didn't put monetary investment in the game! If the experience of IAPing feels bad, why would anyone want to IAP? Source: Updated from my older post at viewtopic.php?f=31&t=53854&p=589863#p589863:
jimpark said: I would like to see an actual money spent to drop rate ratio. Of course spending money to buy packs will increase your chances but I wonder if there are brackets. Spending X amount puts you in a monetary teir, i.e. an internal VIP system that offers slightly better drop rates. As we know, businesses like profit and there are many that would implement such methods... but it's just a suspicion and hopefully it is nothing at all.
If you want to obtain cards in this game, the law of large numbers is your best bet.