Let's put some R in the RNG.

[Deleted User]

Ohboy said:

jimpark said:

I would like to see an actual money spent to drop rate ratio. Of course spending money to buy packs will increase your chances but I wonder if there are brackets. Spending X amount puts you in a monetary teir, i.e. an internal VIP system that offers slightly better drop rates. As we know, businesses like profit and there are many that would implement such methods... but it's just a suspicion and hopefully it is nothing at all. 

So your hypothesis is that they identify players willing to pay... And give them better stuff so they don't have to buy as much? 

A very good question. I understand your point and I also understand it sounds extremely counter-intuitive. And trust me, I would agree with you if it weren't for some experience I had in the past.

I had worked for a business once in the customer retention division (albeit this was a long time ago.. like before the existence of smartphones. There is a chance things have changed in the business world since). In this department, every customer had an internal rating system, which determined what offers would be provided to them should they decide to leave our company for any number of reasons, i.e. competitors, financial problems, etc. This rating system used a number of factors from what I understand including how long the customer was with us, how much they spent, etc. Thus, the "better" the customer was the "better" the offers were. This made sense because new customers required an investment on the company side to set up; whereas, long time customers required no real additional investment. This made retaining existing customers more profitable when compared to new customers. A simple example is the business invests $100 to set up a new customer and it takes 3 months to get $100 back on your investment. If they leave prior to 3 months you end up negative. but if you retain them, you start making profit. And normally, keeping older customers requires little cost, as you can provide them with a simple offer of lets say $20 one time, which may promote a sense of "caring" to the customer and they would effectively stay. Now, this is just a crude example, there are many more elements and factors of course.

Surprisingly, in many other industries, this is apparent. For instance, any business that requires employees. New employees require an investment to obtain (be it advertising, training, recruiting (HR employee costs, etc)). Depending on what the job title/responsibilities is/are, if it takes 1-3 years for an employee to become proficient; that means they are the most effective after 1-3 years and provide high value. Thus, retaining is more cost effective. Additionally, in business consulting, a consultant advises business on certain topics and in most customer driven business situations, they would advise retaining your customer base as opposed to accruing new customers. Of course new customers are important for growth, especially if you can retain them for a long period of time but keeping existing customers usually keeps you steady. There are always variables and perhaps this is not the case here; just providing some background and reasoning.

Now, to the main topic of counter-intuitiveness. There are many instances of counter-intuitive ideas successfully working. I can't think of one with reasonable confidence at the moment and I understand it is not always correct. Now, I am sure there are products sold for different markets. Some are expensive but provide high value. Some are cheap but provide affordability. Both are completely different models but both can be successful. Perhaps, an expensive product won't have a huge customer base but perhaps their profit margins for each individual product are high. Whereas, the inexpensive product has a larger customer base but their profit margins for each individual product is lower. It all depends and there are many variables. This is another crude example. Now logically, this business wants to make money whether it be to keeping operating costs or make a profit - doesn't matter. In order to make money, they need to entice new customers, preferably paying ones and keep them paying. If you give them the farm, then yes, they will use less money. The opposite would also be true, give them nothing, they will probably use less money since the benefits don't outweigh the costs (other variables are present, of course). A balance would be best, provide value for costs to address a broad spectrum. But how do you provide a benefit without upsetting other customers? It is not easy and there are so many different factors. But, lets take one aspect. Card collection. People want better cards. Some people want to complete sets, others just want to deckbuild, and still others just want new cards, etc, etc. The reasons don't matter. But either way it provides progression, aiming towards a goal, feeling accomplished, etc, etc. Striving to get that "item" keeps you going. You get the "item" then there's another "item." As long as the loop doesn't end, it keeps going (once again, not always the case; perhaps, you have a revelation and just quit. Who knows?). So the game gives you cards based on random chance. You pay money and you get nothing good just dupes. We all know that feeling, its not pleasant. You stop paying because costs are high, rewards are low, etc. But if you effectively change the drop rate for a higher paying customer, they merely have higher chances, it is not guaranteed they will get the card. But this would cancel out that **** feeling of not getting anything at all. Imagine those premium packs that end up containing 1 rare. Ugh. Don't want to do that again. It lowers buying potential. But what other option is there? (assuming you don't have mana gems? for the elite pack) Then imagine a pack with multiple rares in comparison. It feels better. It feels worth it. Increased buying potential. It is the random element that would make it easier to manipulate without making it blatantly obvious that someone is getting an edge. Like adding a couple percents to rare+ drop rates to a higher paying customer doesn't effectively prevent them from buying, as the chances are still random to get the card they want. It only expedites the process by a slight margin and provides a feeling of value to keep them going.

Perhaps a high paying customer gets a 5% edge on rare+ drop rates when compared to a non-paying customer. The cards are still randomly rewarded, the difference will probably feel negligible, but there is a slight benefit to the company for future buying potential. You can only determine this through a huge sample size with as many variables limited as possible or you work for the company and find out but sign a contract stating you can't release the information.

This is the angle I was looking at in particular. I could be wrong as this is speculation/suspicion that the app world has some form or another system in place for this. I am just presenting a possibility that would be interesting to look at. Also some examples are over simplified, it is really hard to fully explain as there are so many variables to address at once... and this is not my field of expertise in any way.

And so, I respect your opinions and doubts. I believe your logic makes sense. I am not interested in having any kind of debate, or a heated one for that matter, about it. Because I could easily argue against my stance and say why not increase the drop rate for new customers to retain them, etc, etc, and the cycle goes on and effectively causes no changes in drop rate. lol. I just hope that you would understand my perspective/opinion and the possibility, whether you believe it or not is up to you.

But still, I feel it would be an interesting analysis to look at.

Thank you.

EDIT: I know this post is already long but I thought there might also be a possibility that these drop rates are not specific to each player/UID. Perhaps the server has an order/sequence of cards it plans to give out (randomized, of course). When you buy two packs, one after another, there is a chance that in that small interim between packs (you have to go through the animation) that "x" number of people buy packs, which disturbs the sequence. For instance, a non-specific mythic is available every time five packs. If you are the sole purchaser then yes 5-6 packs would net you two mythics. However if any number of players buy packs between your pack purchases your spot in line changes. Then you couple this with nonspecific mythic generation (remember only a nonspecific mythic not a specific one is guaranteed in the example). Then couple these with individual weights for mythics, i.e. game breaking mythics being less likely to be generated vs lame mythics having a higher chance (because what supplier would want an ungodly amount of broken cards (high demand products) running around?)... oddly my point was that there was a possibility of another drop rate system not specific to the individual but the entire population that causes very skewed drops based on unaccountable timing/sequence... but as I kept writing I realized I have rambled and compounded a bunch of possibilities that will never get proven or disproven without being the guy who built the system itself. 

Mainloop25

Ohboy said:

jimpark said:

I would like to see an actual money spent to drop rate ratio. Of course spending money to buy packs will increase your chances but I wonder if there are brackets. Spending X amount puts you in a monetary teir, i.e. an internal VIP system that offers slightly better drop rates. As we know, businesses like profit and there are many that would implement such methods... but it's just a suspicion and hopefully it is nothing at all. 

So your hypothesis is that they identify players willing to pay... And give them better stuff so they don't have to buy as much? 

If they spent any money, they are probably in the lower percentile of a f2p game, so in terms of player retention, those are your most valuable players, and would make sense to cater to them more. It's easier to get someone to keep spending money then to get someone new to spend. WhIf I knew my spending money got me better odds, I would be more likely to spend again.

Formulator

I think it was Murtagon who had a drop rate conspiracy theory that was kinda like this:

Once you receive your first mythic in a set, the other mythics in the set have skewed odds. For example...
If your first mythic in SOI is Sigarda, you now have bloated odds of getting Sigarda, Soulswallower,Thing in the the Ice, and a lower chance of getting, say, Descend upon the Sinful, and finally, a minuscule chance of pulling Wolf of Devil's Breach. The cards are chosen randomly so no 2 accounts are the same.

I know it sounds wacky,  but I think I buy it. My mythic spread to kick off each set was something like this:

BFZ/Oath of the Gatewatch: Kozilek's Return, Tyrant of Valakut, Kozilek's Return, World Breaker, World Breaker
SOI: Relentless Dead, Thing in the Ice, Relentless Dead, Thing in the Ice, Thing in the Ice (twice in 1 bigbox)

KLD: Rashmi, Architect of the Untamed, Rashmi, Oviya Pashiri, Architect of the Untamed, and then the obligatory 3rd Rashmi...

Anyway, none of this proves anything... But since the product doesn't state the drop rates, and the devs have always chosen to plead the 5th about it... as a consumer, I can't bring myself to believe it's random.

TheDragonHermit

Lacking information, frustration, and a group actively withholding the information desired, the main ingredients for any conspiracy theory, spiced with poor drop rates and droughts of new cards such theories are bound to show up.

Corn_Noodles

Volrak said:

I'd be very interested to see that data.  Needless to say, it's easy to see patterns in noise, but whether some factor is truly forcing or not on a particular outcome can be tested statistically, and it's not clear that it has been.  So I take "this is a known fact" with a rather large grain of salt.

Take it with all the salt you want, but it won't change the fact that people were gaming the RNG to get specific cards. Did I do this as well? You bet. Easiest way to do it was to wait to claim your rare card prize until the specific time noted for your best chance at a certain card.

My point with all of this is that the RNG has been broken before and could still be. It's worth investigating although I doubt it will be.

Corn_Noodles

In case anyone is wondering, after 6 in a row, this is my response from D3:

Unfortunately, we will be unable to provide any compensation regarding this issue. In addition, you are welcome to use the duplicates you have acquired with the Booster Crafting feature, once it is implemented. We apologize for any inconveniences.

Pardon my french, but that's tinykitty. AT THE VERY LEAST, I expect my 400 jewels to be refunded. Fix this @Brigby. Fix it @LakeStone. Fix it now.

shteev

On the one hand, randomness is clumpy. On the other, I've worked within the gambling industry before, and I've seen first how how they manipulate 'randomness' in order to create what are perceived as more favorable outcomes to the company in terms of increased revenue.

Which one of those sounds more like D3 to you?

Corn_Noodles

shteev said:

Which one of those sounds more like D3 to you?

Hello there, Mr. Occam. I didn't see you come in.

Steeme

Corn Noodles said:

In case anyone is wondering, after 6 in a row, this is my response from D3:

Unfortunately, we will be unable to provide any compensation regarding this issue. In addition, you are welcome to use the duplicates you have acquired with the Booster Crafting feature, once it is implemented. We apologize for any inconveniences.

Pardon my french, but that's tinykitty. AT THE VERY LEAST, I expect my 400 jewels to be refunded. Fix this @Brigby. Fix it @LakeStone. Fix it now.

Ah, the door has slammed shut.  I hope everyone will see why myself and Ohboy were attempting to deter players from gaming the system.

It's unfortunate you are a victim, but there were two entire threads full of heated debate at why certain players were going to ruin it for the rest of the community.

Corn_Noodles

Steeme said:

It's unfortunate you are a victim, but there were two entire threads full of heated debate at why certain players were going to ruin it for the rest of the community.

It's anti-customer, but I'm not a "victim". If I cannot get redress from D3, Apple will be more than happy to provide it.

TheDragonHermit

Corn Noodles said:

In case anyone is wondering, after 6 in a row, this is my response from D3:

Unfortunately, we will be unable to provide any compensation regarding this issue. In addition, you are welcome to use the duplicates you have acquired with the Booster Crafting feature, once it is implemented. We apologize for any inconveniences.

Pardon my french, but that's tinykitty. AT THE VERY LEAST, I expect my 400 jewels to be refunded. Fix this @Brigby. Fix it @LakeStone. Fix it now.

Just wait for booster crafting. HAHAHAhaha...ha *sobs*

Steeme

Corn Noodles said:

Steeme said:

It's unfortunate you are a victim, but there were two entire threads full of heated debate at why certain players were going to ruin it for the rest of the community.

It's anti-customer, but I'm not a "victim". If I cannot get redress from D3, Apple will be more than happy to provide it.

You're free to charge back the purchase.  It's not the right thing to do, but I can understand why you would do it.

Technically, you're supposed to keep the dupe and burn it down for tokens.  Everyone knows this up front.  The minute you click the purchase button, you've already agreed to those terms.

Ohboy

This is exactly why I told brigby rerolls at all was a bad idea. 

People get entitled to stuff here so quickly. You've rolled the dice 6 times and failed. You got to roll 6 times and you're pissed off. I know people who got to roll just once. 

Corn_Noodles

Steeme said:

You're free to charge back the purchase.  It's not the right thing to do, but I can understand why you would do it.

Mana Jewels from a real money transaction were used in the purchase of the Elite Pack. D3 (and now Brigby) refuse to compensate me fairly for a legitimate support issue and both tell me to wait for Booster Crafting. Booster Crafting has no release date and the only tangible news we have is that the developer of the game has closed. D3 (and Brigby) refuse to give us any more detailed information on the transition or the release date of this "feature". This is why Apple has a refund policy; it's to deal with situations like this. Think me of however you want, but I'm in the right here.

I would have accepted (grudgingly) a refund of my 400 jewels in order to get a pack in the next rotation, but that was never even offered as an option. So tell me, how is what D3 is doing (or not doing) "the right thing"?

Steeme

Corn Noodles said:

Steeme said:

You're free to charge back the purchase.  It's not the right thing to do, but I can understand why you would do it.

Mana Jewels from a real money transaction were used in the purchase of the Elite Pack. D3 (and now Brigby) refuse to compensate me fairly for a legitimate support issue and both tell me to wait for Booster Crafting. Booster Crafting has no release date and the only tangible news we have is that the developer of the game has closed. D3 (and Brigby) refuse to give us any more detailed information on the transition or the release date of this "feature". This is why Apple has a refund policy; it's to deal with situations like this. Think me of however you want, but I'm in the right here.

I would have accepted (grudgingly) a refund of my 400 jewels in order to get a pack in the next rotation, but that was never even offered as an option. So tell me, how is what D3 is doing (or not doing) "the right thing"?

I don't want to stir up another heated debate, but Elite packs were never meant to give you a non-dupe.

The problem is that you would have been able to re-roll on your first dupe until you got a non-dupe.  Unfortunately, due to brazen community trolling of the support process, they were forced to change the policy to place a hard cap.

This is just another scenario where D3 will get blamed for something where their hand was forced.

Abenjes

My feeling and I know this has been gone over before is that the packs never should have resulted in dupes in the first place.

Elite Packs are of enough value to ensure you get a new; non-dupe card.

babar3355

It's funny that there is an argument in this thread suggesting that giving better drop rates to player that spend some money on the game will keep them engaged and lead to even more spending.

Wouldn't the logical conclusion then be that giving better drop rates to ALL players would encourage more spending as a community?

Sorry, I just had to chime in with another swipe at the foolishness of removing the collectability aspect of a game that has thrived on the ability to actually collect the cards.  Give us better prizes, better drop rates and a functional dupe system so we can actually enjoy and spend money on this game.

I will not be buying Immiment Doom.  Seems like a fun card with broken swarm intelligence and whir.  Don't look forward to seeing it played against me.  But not worth $40 when the jewels, packs and crystals have no value to me.  If I was going for a complete set, I would buy it in a heart beat. Oh well.

Adjunct

Corn Noodles said:

Did I do this as well? You bet. Easiest way to do it was to wait to claim your rare card prize until the specific time noted for your best chance at a certain card.

so lemme get this straight. you admit to exploiting and you haven't been banned. what the hell.

Adjunct

Corn Noodles said:

 This is why Apple has a refund policy; it's to deal with situations like this. Think me of however you want, but I'm in the right here.

lemme get this more straight. you admit to scamming and you aren't banned. seriously?

Sirchombli

Considering the fact that cards in paper form have different frequencies amongst the same rarity (or at least used to. C1, R2 etc.) It wouldn't surprise me to find out the drop rates in this game are the same. My issue is that in paper, you get a rare or mythic in every pack. I really feel that if there aren't different drop rates within the same rarity, the rng is broken, somehow. It seems to favor specific cards. Like, why do I have 15 copies of deem worthy when I still need 13 rares from the set. If deem worthy is a  R1 it would make some amount of sense. Then at the same time, everybody seems to have 12 copies of aven mindcensor. I'm not complaining, but I still don't have 1. I've said it before and I'll say it again. We need transparency about drop rates. They seem suspect, and the fact that they won't address them in an official capacity just makes matters worse. Shady practice is shady. 

Fun fact to illustrate just how jacked rng is.  I pulled 2 copies of glorious end from the same pack. Not the same bundle, but the same 5 card pack I got for progression in TOZ. The odds of that happening are absolutely astronomical. Another weird thing I've noticed is that every time I pull a rare I don't have after a string of dupes, the next rare I pull is a dupe of the rare I was excited about pulling yesterday. I'm thinking about starting a blog to document all of the **** I encounter. Just for entertainment. Sharing these weird experiences makes them fun rather than frustrating