Volrak wrote: andrewvanmarle wrote: khurram wrote: andrewvanmarle wrote: The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game. So now we know why we get so m many dupes So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics? Yes, exactly that.... And that's why some mythics are so elusive. And why we have skewed chances when buying an elite pack It's an interesting idea, but so far it's in the category of "Obama wire-tapped me"... no proof offered, hard to disprove, and questions abound - such as what possible reason anything to do with drop rates would have to be present in client-side code, whether certain weights, which are indeed present in the code (according to my own friend who shall not be named), may actually be to do with the AI's hand sorting or spell targetting algorithms, and of course whether your friend who shall not be named was playing a practical joke on us all. Also like "Obama wire-tapped me", the claim has spurred interest disproportionate to its veracity, including my own curiosity, which has prompted me to start working to gather evidence which can support or debunk it.. but don't hold your breath, as it will take some time. If anyone feels like cutting to the chase, a concrete theory about which specific mythics are in what "group" and what the relative drop rates might be would bring results sooner, but that is something I will also not be holding my breath for.
andrewvanmarle wrote: khurram wrote: andrewvanmarle wrote: The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game. So now we know why we get so m many dupes So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics? Yes, exactly that.... And that's why some mythics are so elusive. And why we have skewed chances when buying an elite pack
khurram wrote: andrewvanmarle wrote: The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game. So now we know why we get so m many dupes So you are saying that there are 4 rarities among mythics?
andrewvanmarle wrote: The drop rates between mythics is separated into 4 groups, so there isnt an equal chance to get any mythic. This has bedn confirmed by a friend who's name i wont say who had a look at the code in the game. So now we know why we get so m many dupes
TibbyGenn wrote: It's a lot of effort to confirm what we mostly intuitively know, that drop rates are terrible.
Volrak wrote: Astralwind wrote: Without those drop rates, how can we tell between basic, super and premium? The data collected so far (~6700 cards) has been analysed to see if drop rates per card differ depending on pack type, but that theory couldn't be supported from the data. So you can assume that opening a super pack is identical to opening three basic packs, and opening a premium pack is identical to opening five basic packs plus getting a bonus rare. Astralwind wrote: We need something like: Basic - 10% chance of uncommon, 3% chance of rare, 1% chance of Mythic Super - 15% chance of uncommon, 4% chance of rare, 1.5% chance of Mythic Premium - 20% chance of uncommon, 5% chance of rare, 2% chance of Mythic Here you go: The odds above don't depend on pack type. The total chance of certain rarities dropping does depend on pack type: You can see from the 2nd table that the chance of rare from a Super pack (46.0%) is indeed "higher" than the chance of a rare from a normal booster (18.6%). But I think d3 advertising the chance as "high" is misleading. (It's likely wording left over from advertising the 20-card Fat Packs, which they forgot to check was still valid). *All of these figures assume that drop rates haven't changed over the months the data was collected.
Astralwind wrote: Without those drop rates, how can we tell between basic, super and premium?
Astralwind wrote: We need something like: Basic - 10% chance of uncommon, 3% chance of rare, 1% chance of Mythic Super - 15% chance of uncommon, 4% chance of rare, 1.5% chance of Mythic Premium - 20% chance of uncommon, 5% chance of rare, 2% chance of Mythic
babar3355 wrote: Is this from this website? https://docs.google.com/forms/d/e/1FAIpQLScQGVZ8yXANx45y73Il9HbsKvj89DLnvX_DRrqbE5iKNoKNcg/viewform I wonder if you guys throw out outliers if it is? The first pack I loaded was a big box, and I realized I did it in reverse order... 32 mythics, 35 rares, etc lol
andrewvanmarle wrote: Volrak, you dont take duplicates into account here. If you open a 1000.000 packs which mythics will appear only once and which will appear multiple times. Octals site only records if the mythic is owned or not.
andrewvanmarle wrote: Volrak, I may be missing the point, but how complete a collection is, isnt dats use can use to approximate drop rates?
andrewvanmarle wrote: For one you miss the amount of cards pulled per account, and two duplicates are an essential part of the calculation.
andrewvanmarle wrote: In other words, if you dont factor in duplicates, then the conclusion will of course be that all mythics have the same drop rate.
andrewvanmarle wrote: Ah i get what you mean. But you are comparing samples without equal circumstances: how many cards has someone bought and which mythic was duped how many times.
andrewvanmarle wrote: Take this example ten players have a full vollection of mythics, and dont tell you how many dupes they had: you'd get a flat rate.
andrewvanmarle wrote: Or ten players each have 3 mythics, but dont tell you that 5 opened twice as many packs.
Yawgmoths_Left_Ilium wrote: Nice start with the graphs. I do have a few critiques, essentially revolving around the fact that while it's a good start, I don't think there's enough data to draw a concrete conclusion. Since we don't know which mythics you're polling from, it's possible that all mythics from the sample were from a single tier. Maybe there's only a select few mythics in the upper tiers (from Origins that might be Nyx, TSN, etc). Also, it's possible that different sets have different tiers. For example, SOI, with Olivia, Deploy, Gisela (basically all the sought after cards), might have tiers, but Origins might not.