Mighty Token 4* Odds

GrimSkald
GrimSkald Posts: 2,569 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion

So, am I crazy? I always thought the odds for a 4 star from a Mighty token was 1:7. Heck, I initially thought it was 15%, like the Legendary Tokens, but it quickly became apparent it wasn't.

I've consistently failed to hit that 1:7 percentage, slipping farther and farther away. So I decided to double check a few days ago. Weirdly enough, the odds weren't on any of the tokens.

I checked again today, and the odds are on tokens, but the odds for a 4 star with a Mighty Token are 1:8. So I want to know - was it always 1:8? Was I crazy for thinking it was 1:7? I definitely could have been confusing them with LTs, I know I did initially.

I'm not trying to birth conspiracy theories, here, I just want to get the odds straight, because I've drawn a lot less than 1:7, but a lot more than 1:8...

Comments

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    Maybe the odds were slowly going down with the added 4s over the years, and they had to update the ratio?
    I have no idea what it was before the 1:8 though.

  • Domitronas
    Domitronas Posts: 172 Tile Toppler
    edited September 2023

    I could swear it was 1:4 before

  • Waddles_Pines
    Waddles_Pines Posts: 1,218 Chairperson of the Boards

    Swear it's always been 1:7. I've opened tons and my odds are definitely worse than that...

  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,167 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited September 2023

    It's supposed to be 1/7 (15%).

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/80350/new-feature-in-r191-mighty-tokens

    KGB

  • meadowsweet
    meadowsweet Posts: 252 Mover and Shaker

    I confirmed that I see Mighty 4★ pulls listed as ~1:8 (12.5%) odds.

    Also noticed that Classic Legends 5★ pulls are now listed as ~1:6 (16.7%) odds, when I could swear that used to be 1:7 as well. But maybe that change is well-known and I just missed it.

  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,569 Chairperson of the Boards

    @KGB said:
    It's supposed to be 1/7 (15%).

    https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/80350/new-feature-in-r191-mighty-tokens

    KGB

    Thanks! So I wasn't going crazy.

    I bet the real odds have always been somewhere between 12.5% and 14.3% -- I've never gotten 1 in 7. Sometimes I've been as close as 5 or 6 down, but I've always been below the 1 in 7. They probably updated the odds to be more accurate.

    @meadowsweet said:
    I confirmed that I see Mighty 4★ pulls listed as ~1:8 (12.5%) odds.

    Also noticed that Classic Legends 5★ pulls are now listed as ~1:6 (16.7%) odds, when I could swear that used to be 1:7 as well. But maybe that change is well-known and I just missed it.

    Interesting. Legendary tokens have always been around 15% as far as I know (that's how they stated the odds initially,) and I've pretty consistently drawn around that, so they probably tweaked the classic odds up slightly when they made the change to the "favored" 5 and 4 stars last season.

    15% is between 1 in 6 and 1 in 7, but they'd rather have the represented odds slightly worse than reality than slightly better, I expect.

  • Kolence
    Kolence Posts: 969 Critical Contributor
    edited September 2023

    Mighty tokens were definitely showing 1 in 7 before. I'm pretty sure, Ice or someone else posted at the time that the odds were the same as in LT, meaning 15%, and it was the rounding they use to obscure things :)
    Classic legends were also 15%, until recently, when they added weighted odds for three chosen 5's and 4's each. At that time the odds approximation changed to 1 in 6, but this time no devs commented on what the exact percentage is now. :/
    P. S.
    1 in 6 has to be between 18.33% and 15.48%, or else it would be closer to 1 in 7 or 1 in 5. If I even understand what 1 in X means exactly... :#
    I like to think it's 16% :D

  • Alfje17
    Alfje17 Posts: 3,746 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited September 2023

    Looks like it's 1:8 now:

    It definitely was 1:7 and after pulling 4900 tokens, I got 731 4* or 14.92%, a little more than the 14.29% I should be getting.

  • Tony_Foot
    Tony_Foot Posts: 1,785 Chairperson of the Boards

    Well that sucks with dilution going up and with the new champion 2.0 needing more 4* than ever before.

  • Wil88
    Wil88 Posts: 159 Tile Toppler

    Maybe they felt they needed to adjust it now that bonus shards are more generous?

  • Scofie
    Scofie GLOBAL_MODERATORS Posts: 1,297 Chairperson of the Boards

    Since I don't have a question this month, I'll ask about it. Will be interesting to see if Champions 2.0 is a reason for changing the % either up or down.

    For the first time in almost 10 years, I'm kind of hoping for 1* when I pull STs... 😀

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    Maybe the additional 3* characters pushed the odds down, and they'll adjust back to 1:7 soon.

  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,569 Chairperson of the Boards

    I've pulled 7514 Mighty tokens and have a 4 star pull rate of 14.11%. That's "down" 13 4 stars, not a huge amount but significant.

    I tend to suspect the odds were always below 1:7, but who knows?

  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards

    It's ~ 1:7
    So...

  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,569 Chairperson of the Boards

    @Bowgentle said:
    It's ~ 1:7
    So...

    Sure, if the odds were slightly below 1:7 they may have rounded up initially, so to speak, then decided to round down because anyone who tracks their data would get demoralized.

    Unless everyone tracks and shares their data, I guess we'll never know. It could be exactly 1:7 and I'm just unlucky, for example.

  • Alfje17
    Alfje17 Posts: 3,746 Chairperson of the Boards

    @GrimSkald said:

    @Bowgentle said:
    It's ~ 1:7
    So...

    Sure, if the odds were slightly below 1:7 they may have rounded up initially, so to speak, then decided to round down because anyone who tracks their data would get demoralized.

    Unless everyone tracks and shares their data, I guess we'll never know. It could be exactly 1:7 and I'm just unlucky, for example.

    Looks like you're unlucky, my pull rate is close to 1:6.7, so that probably means I'm due for a dry spell!

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