Family Legends Store

entrailbucket

Usually when someone starts talking about how they've cracked the code on the MPQ RNG, it's some elaborate, hilarious, tinfoil-hat conspiracy theory nonsense trying to prove they're being cheated by the developers.

I don't know how they RNG and I couldn't care less about how it's done in code, but I've done a lot of legendary pulls and I've never noticed anything to indicate that it's rigged or unfair in any way.

killahKlown

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

GrimSkald

@killahKlown said:

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

I don't see how you can find this data to be "incorrect." All the Legendary stores have the same pull percentage, so the average for 1000 pulls should be the same whether it's all from one store or from a dozen. If they forced your pre-generated pulls to conform to the pull percentage that would be one thing, but as far as I know they don't.

Sure, complaining that you pulled 30 (or even 40 or 50,) times without a single 5 star is not correct - it is absolutely a thing that happens and in general humans tend to focus on bad luck more than good (i.e. negative confirmation bias.) But tracking the stores together makes just as much sense to me as tracking them separately, it all depends on how you want to break down the data.

Bad

The code will generate probably a thousand pulls and the order of 5s and 4s, and it will fulfill the expected ratio without any doubt.
However the player usually has a limited number of pulls and of course will perceive as lucky the sequences where a large number of 5*s are placed on the initial pulls.
Laws of probability do make happen cases like these, still it's not frequent.
Ultimately the player is the one who writes his own ratio story each time he gambles on pulling, or messes up it if he continues pulling in a sequence with too many long dry spells (which is the reverse "lucky" sequence).
(Before receiving more warnings, to aclarate that this is based on my experience pulling on a lot of sequences of 250 )

killahKlown

@GrimSkald said:

@killahKlown said:

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

I don't see how you can find this data to be "incorrect." All the Legendary stores have the same pull percentage, so the average for 1000 pulls should be the same whether it's all from one store or from a dozen. If they forced your pre-generated pulls to conform to the pull percentage that would be one thing, but as far as I know they don't.

Sure, complaining that you pulled 30 (or even 40 or 50,) times without a single 5 star is not correct - it is absolutely a thing that happens and in general humans tend to focus on bad luck more than good (i.e. negative confirmation bias.) But tracking the stores together makes just as much sense to me as tracking them separately, it all depends on how you want to break down the data.

Because the other stores are only temporary and you can't expect to get the true ratio out of them in the limited amount of pulls you get from them. If you pull 30 from a temp store and get no 5*s and stop there, it skews your overall pull rate. However regardless of what you pull in those temp stores, you're still going to pull the exact same pulls in the Latest Legends store.

So you're going to show a different overall ratio if you factor in the bad 30 pulls from the other store.

And there's nothing preventing you from pulling an unfavorable ratio in several temp stores in a row.

killahKlown

@killahKlown said:

@GrimSkald said:

@killahKlown said:

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

I don't see how you can find this data to be "incorrect." All the Legendary stores have the same pull percentage, so the average for 1000 pulls should be the same whether it's all from one store or from a dozen. If they forced your pre-generated pulls to conform to the pull percentage that would be one thing, but as far as I know they don't.

Sure, complaining that you pulled 30 (or even 40 or 50,) times without a single 5 star is not correct - it is absolutely a thing that happens and in general humans tend to focus on bad luck more than good (i.e. negative confirmation bias.) But tracking the stores together makes just as much sense to me as tracking them separately, it all depends on how you want to break down the data.

Because the other stores are only temporary and you can't expect to get the true ratio out of them in the limited amount of pulls you get from them. If you pull 30 from a temp store and get no 5*s and stop there, it skews your overall pull rate. However regardless of what you pull in those temp stores, you're still going to pull the exact same pulls in the Latest Legends store.

So you're going to show a different overall ratio if you factor in the bad 30 pulls from the other store.

And there's nothing preventing you from pulling an unfavorable ratio in several temp stores in a row.

But there's really no harm in tracking your pulls in any way you want. It accomplishes absolutely nothing other than to satisfy personal curiosity.

Punisher5784

All I know is, there's no PvE right now, I'm bored and have 27 CP. I need 5* Professor X so I pressed the button.. that glorious purple cover appeared.. I pressed it to reveal.. Professor X. 100% pull rate. I'm done with that store lol

Sp1d3r

🤣🤣🤣🤣 can't get better than that

Vhailorx

@killahKlown said:

@killahKlown said:

@GrimSkald said:

@killahKlown said:

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

I don't see how you can find this data to be "incorrect." All the Legendary stores have the same pull percentage, so the average for 1000 pulls should be the same whether it's all from one store or from a dozen. If they forced your pre-generated pulls to conform to the pull percentage that would be one thing, but as far as I know they don't.

Sure, complaining that you pulled 30 (or even 40 or 50,) times without a single 5 star is not correct - it is absolutely a thing that happens and in general humans tend to focus on bad luck more than good (i.e. negative confirmation bias.) But tracking the stores together makes just as much sense to me as tracking them separately, it all depends on how you want to break down the data.

Because the other stores are only temporary and you can't expect to get the true ratio out of them in the limited amount of pulls you get from them. If you pull 30 from a temp store and get no 5*s and stop there, it skews your overall pull rate. However regardless of what you pull in those temp stores, you're still going to pull the exact same pulls in the Latest Legends store.

So you're going to show a different overall ratio if you factor in the bad 30 pulls from the other store.

And there's nothing preventing you from pulling an unfavorable ratio in several temp stores in a row.

But there's really no harm in tracking your pulls in any way you want. It accomplishes absolutely nothing other than to satisfy personal curiosity.

One way to say it is that there is "no harm," another way to say it would be that tracking your rate per-store, and tracking all store combined are equally useless insofar as they tell you anything about your future pull rate.

If you only ever got very lucky on special store pulls then I suppose your personal pull rate could end up being above %15, but that is more quirky anecdote than any useful data point.

Kolence

@killahKlown said:

@GrimSkald said:

@killahKlown said:

@fractalvisions said:
Exactly. It doesn't matter when the calculation was made, if all pulls are independent (and I see no reason to doubt that they are) then there's nothing wrong with averaging pull rates across stores.

There's "nothing wrong" with it other than having incorrect data to complain about.

I don't see how you can find this data to be "incorrect." All the Legendary stores have the same pull percentage, so the average for 1000 pulls should be the same whether it's all from one store or from a dozen. If they forced your pre-generated pulls to conform to the pull percentage that would be one thing, but as far as I know they don't.

Sure, complaining that you pulled 30 (or even 40 or 50,) times without a single 5 star is not correct - it is absolutely a thing that happens and in general humans tend to focus on bad luck more than good (i.e. negative confirmation bias.) But tracking the stores together makes just as much sense to me as tracking them separately, it all depends on how you want to break down the data.

Because the other stores are only temporary and you can't expect to get the true ratio out of them in the limited amount of pulls you get from them. If you pull 30 from a temp store and get no 5*s and stop there, it skews your overall pull rate. However regardless of what you pull in those temp stores, you're still going to pull the exact same pulls in the Latest Legends store.

So you're going to show a different overall ratio if you factor in the bad 30 pulls from the other store.

And there's nothing preventing you from pulling an unfavorable ratio in several temp stores in a row.

You forget to mention the other side of that coin, that is, there's nothing preventing you from getting a very favorable ratio in several temp stores as well. It may not be in the stores where you really wanted it to happen, but eventually it would even out, as long as the odds are the same across all the stores.

Anyway, I can only show an anecdotal example from my pulls (since around anniversary '17.)
There's a couple of pretty bad rates in the special stores, where I was actively trying to get something in them. And still, other random stores with just a couple or a few pulls total even out the average.