Are LL odds broken?

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Comments

  • TheXMan
    TheXMan Posts: 188 Tile Toppler
    Falconfreak said:
    TheXMan said:
    Maybe you didn't know to track pulls from day 1 but apparently you are now since you know you are 2/80. 
    And...? There's clearly something going on to have this terrible of a pull rate. 80 LL covers and only 2 5* pulls...for a character I already had champed. 
    I just thought it was ironic that you were saying about being such a waste of time and not for you...but clearly you are tracking them.

    It does stink to go through bad streaks 
  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    acescracked said:l
    Falconfreak said:
    I am 2 out of my last 80 pulls in LL for 5* covers. Which, I might add, were both 5* KK who I already had champed. I am in the same alliance as the OP. We are a top 100 PVE alliance and every member in there has posted in our alliance chat how insanely bad our pulls have been. Clearly this is not just "bad luck". 
    In the new feeder update didn't you see the developers post notes for your alliances pull rate issue?

    The bean counters are unhappy with the covers going out. An alliance was picked that would get bad pull rates. The developers had to modify a ton of code to do it but seems you guys were chosen.
    Yes! This is the most logical explanation. The new developers (or janitor who determines 5* pulls) hate this one alliance. In other related news, the new developers (or janitor) love me as I have been killing it in the LL this month.
  • Falconfreak
    Falconfreak Posts: 119 Tile Toppler
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
  • Godzillafan67
    Godzillafan67 Posts: 616 Critical Contributor
    Falconfreak said:
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
    When I pulled for KK, my 5* return rate was a little less than the expected value, but certainly not unusual. Once I pull to finish off Thor, I’ll keep track and see how that goes.

    Someone has posted a looong run that shows that deserts exist, even those worse than 2/80.
  • Craig8429
    Craig8429 Posts: 7 Just Dropped In
    Falconfreak said:
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
    based on the majority of this thread, everyone is saying no they aren't having issues.  Dry spells do happen. 2 out of 80 is terrible. hopefully the dry spells ends soon for you.  
  • WilliamK1983
    WilliamK1983 Posts: 1,015 Chairperson of the Boards
    Started tracking my pulls October 2021.  My total for all pulls(new release stores, LL's, Classics, anniversary, etc.) is 154/1006 = 15.3%.  Looking back, majority of em were right at the 15% mark +/- 2%. 

    Best runs were 16/77 = 20.8% and 11/61 = 18%.

    Worst runs were 9/88 = 10.2%, 9/77 = 11.7%, and 1/30 = 3.3%.  Also had a 1/10, 2/20 and a couple small 0 fers (3,7,2).

    The droughts don't bother me that much.  What bothers me is when my cover distribution for a character gets wildly out of balance which I'm sure I'm not the only one.  @Falconfreak It isn't some wild conspiracy against you and your alliance.  A thread exactly like this pops up once a month.  The droughts sting for sure and we all go through them, but it'll balance out.  It always does.  
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    My last long hoard was for chasm, Jthor and Kamala. Great rates.
    What I had left I pulled for the hulks, more than an excellent rate.
    My advice is, if you start pulling and you don't see the thing happy, stop pulling at 30 and wait until one character exits.
  • Sekilicious
    Sekilicious Posts: 1,766 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited September 2022
    Craig8429 said:
    Falconfreak said:
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
    based on the majority of this thread, everyone is saying no they aren't having issues.  Dry spells do happen. 2 out of 80 is terrible. hopefully the dry spells ends soon for you.  
    See OP asked a question, it was even addressed by member of the development team, and dude doubles down based on anecdotal information and even gets aggressive to another poster who shared his own strategy to combat the feeling that the game is stacked against you. This particular post was about trying to find that one person that shouts ‘YES I NEED MOAR 5*s WITH A PERFECT DISTRIBUTION IF I DON’T GET THAT ITS A GIANT CONSPIRACY AND THE GAME IS BROKEN’. My guess is they didn’t like the conspiracies we tried to help provide. I should have started with ancient aliens I guess…
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sekilicious said:
    Craig8429 said:
    Falconfreak said:
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
    based on the majority of this thread, everyone is saying no they aren't having issues.  Dry spells do happen. 2 out of 80 is terrible. hopefully the dry spells ends soon for you.  
    See OP asked a question, it was even addressed by member of the development team, and dude doubles down based on anecdotal information and even gets aggressive to another poster who shared his own strategy to combat the feeling that the game is stacked against you. This particular post was about trying to find that one person that shouts ‘YES I NEED MOAR 5*s WITH A PERFECT DISTRIBUTION IF I DON’T GET THAT ITS A GIANT CONSPIRACY AND THE GAME IS BROKEN’. My guess is they didn’t like the conspiracies we tried to help provide. I should have started with ancient aliens I guess…
    Reptiles. Always Reptiles.
  • dianetics
    dianetics Posts: 1,656 Chairperson of the Boards
    My pull rate this year has been mostly terrible. But, I still managed to champ the characters I was interested in. 
    When Big Wheel rolled in I had a very exciting 7% pull rate on about 110 ish pulls. (I don’t have my spreadsheet in front of me) for the rest of his time in I pulled every time I got 10-14 pulls. The shorter pull sessions got me around 12-15%. So it evened out to 10% overall.

    The next pull session was with garg kk and Thor. Again another roughly 100 pulls 10%. All are champed so I can wait until Jane rotates out and I expect to have 150-200 pulls by then. Less I f I get into the anniversary vault.

    Its not great but last year I was much more successful and it has more or less evened out.
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,287 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited September 2022
    Bad said:

    My advice is, if you start pulling and you don't see the thing happy, stop pulling at 30 and wait until one character exits.
    Why? The numbers don't reset when a new character gets added to latest. If the token was going to be a 4*, it's still going to be a 4* when the next character enters or whether you pull it a year from now.

    KGB

    P.S. For what it's worth to Falconfreak, I am also on a terrible run. I went 4-86 when Chasm entered and all 4 were Thoress Yellows. Since I have KK/Thoress covered I am waiting till Emma enters then I'll try again for Chasm covers but since I only have 2 + 1 shared the odds that I'll even get half way to finishing him are very very remote.
  • purplemur
    purplemur Posts: 454 Mover and Shaker
    Or did the janitor that affects the 5*rate leave the pile-on switch open for the tinykitty responders to this thread? 

    The games code has never worked in an unintentional manner! There have never been any situations where say Starks were being offered for 1.99$ despite that not being the price, or times being off, rewards not being delivered, etc

    but definitely pile on that a whole alliance of long term players is dumz for asking about a shared experience. 

    Cuz science has never started a hypothesis based on a shared experience that doesn’t match conventional standards. 

  • EienRyuu
    EienRyuu Posts: 82 Match Maker
    You know.... let me first say that I have NEVER pulled LL tokens so far and I have painstakingly collected them for a year and a bit more. That's mainly because I don't do farms, etc....
    And I wanted to pull just because I really love KK or Kamala's design and the cover as well, so I decided to do it while these 3 were in.

    So, I had 77 with 1 given from Polaris. Because I was like "If I am going to be pulling, why not lift her up from lvl 270?! She was there for quite a while xD" Thus 78 tokens.
    Also, to mention that I had FosThor and Chasm rostered at 1 cover from alliance progression rewards before. FosThor with 1 Red and Chasm with 1 Black.

    I did exactly 50 pulls. And got 8 5* covers. xD Could someone do the math, please?

    To break it down further: 2 Black and 1 Green for Chasm, 2 Blue for FosThor and 2 Green and 1 Yellow for KK.

    And not to mention I am left with 28 tokens as well. AND furthermore I have about 3500 CP which I could also use. I am wondering if I should continue to get the missing powers for each of them. xD How do you think guys? xD (just a small info: had 75 Shards on FosThor from events so she is now at 300 and something so I could continue until she gets her yellow)
  • killahKlown
    killahKlown Posts: 585 Critical Contributor
    Falconfreak said:
    Is anyone else experiencing this kind of "bad luck" by the new devs? Bad jokes that add nothing to the discussion are not addressing the issue.
    Because it's not an issue 
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,348 Chairperson of the Boards
    EienRyuu said:
    You know.... let me first say that I have NEVER pulled LL tokens so far and I have painstakingly collected them for a year and a bit more. That's mainly because I don't do farms, etc....
    And I wanted to pull just because I really love KK or Kamala's design and the cover as well, so I decided to do it while these 3 were in.

    So, I had 77 with 1 given from Polaris. Because I was like "If I am going to be pulling, why not lift her up from lvl 270?! She was there for quite a while xD" Thus 78 tokens.
    Also, to mention that I had FosThor and Chasm rostered at 1 cover from alliance progression rewards before. FosThor with 1 Red and Chasm with 1 Black.

    I did exactly 50 pulls. And got 8 5* covers. xD Could someone do the math, please?

    To break it down further: 2 Black and 1 Green for Chasm, 2 Blue for FosThor and 2 Green and 1 Yellow for KK.

    And not to mention I am left with 28 tokens as well. AND furthermore I have about 3500 CP which I could also use. I am wondering if I should continue to get the missing powers for each of them. xD How do you think guys? xD (just a small info: had 75 Shards on FosThor from events so she is now at 300 and something so I could continue until she gets her yellow)
    From your 50 pulls you got a 5* cover roughly every 6.25 pulls (tokens opened) which is better than the odds in the packs which are roughly 1/7.

    As to whether you should keep going depends on a.) What your aim in opening the tokens was i.e. seeking to just level Polaris or try and get covers on a 5* or more to level them up b.) Whether you are prepared for it to affect your MMR and c.) How high your other characters are levelled
  • VALACK
    VALACK Posts: 16 Just Dropped In
    gonna say kinda ' yes ' ....   whatever they gonna say rate is normal or healthy... it's not.    i remember someone pulling less than me (don't exactly but about 20~40 less) and he got more ( at least 10 to max 30 cover )...    and here are no any guarantee system.   little hopeless and frustrate
  • EienRyuu
    EienRyuu Posts: 82 Match Maker
    edited September 2022
    DAZ0273 said:
    EienRyuu
    As to whether you should keep going depends on a.) What your aim in opening the tokens was i.e. seeking to just level Polaris or try and get covers on a 5* or more to level them up b.) Whether you are prepared for it to affect your MMR and c.) How high your other characters are levelled
    To be fair, the main point was to get powers for my characters. Allow me to explain: I have witnessed what can FosThor do in her PVP before as a loaner with 1/1/1. xD And I had her with just one power, not very useful. xD I also got Silver Surfer handed to me by the game from the daily rewards with the black power. But do you know how much black matching is that?! xD When you can fire red and blue instead. xD Do you understand me now? That's why I wanted to get some more powers.
    Polaris just happened to be in the "crossfire" of this mainly because I use her so I figured to pump her up a little bit. On the point of b) while I may get those 5 covers but HELL NO I am putting ISO in them until I have a somewhat good 4* maxed up or at least over 300. xD So it will be while when I will lvl them up.
    This leads us to c) Polaris is at 274 followed by Howard at 273. Those are my highest. xD The rest are the 5 stars I mentioned but at 1 cover (Silver Surfer, Jean Gray, OLM), 4* that are not quite covered up (like 1/1/1 or 2/0/1, etc...) and 3* and 2*. There you go. I can write fully what my roster is if you want.

    Anyway, thank you for doing the math, Daz.  :)
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,348 Chairperson of the Boards
    No worries and yeah Mighty Thor is very good. If you keep those covers at 255 for now you will be fine. :) 

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