Occurrence Rate for Bonus Shards

jsmjsmjsm00

Do we know the odds for obtaining bonus shards for any given token? I can see that we have rough numbers at the store, for example, ~2% for 4* bonus out of LL. Is it known the actual percentage and how that breaks down into whether the bonus is a full or partial cover? 

TheEyeDoctorsWife

When the Age of Shards began , I recall it being explained by the devs how shard bonuses would drop and the percentages. I forgot what they were , but I’m sure there’s at least one person here who graphs and saves every move they make  in the game and can give you the answer .

Kolence

Bonus shards forced timer was added a little over 2 years ago, beginning of April 2020, I believe. I don't think the devs have ever shared the actual exact numbers you're asking about. They only gave a description how it would behave with some made up example numbers (which might have been very close to real ones, for all I know). All we can do is try to guesstimate them by looking at pull history in a store. Usually only Latest Legends store would make sense as that's where most of the players can reach a significant number of pulls over time, while keeping track of it. 

In my case, I've had a rate of 272 5-stars from 1939 pulls in Latest store over these 2 years, since bounus shards timer was added (slightly over 14% rate).

Over those 1939 pulls, there were 45 with bonus shards. Of the 45 total, 11 were for 5-star shards - all for 50 shards, and 3 were for 4-star shards giving 400 shards. The rest (31 times) just the regular 50 shards for a 4-star.

Overall, the average number of pulls before a bonus shards occurrence is ~41.04.
The average for 5-star shards only is ~42.91.
For 4-star shards only (all amounts) is ~40.44.
For 4-stars, but 400 shards only is 38. 

The distribution of 5-star bonus shards occurrences is pretty skewed, currently - of the last 8 bonus shards, 6 were for 5-stars (and 11 total over all 45). Five were in a row! That's how RNG rolls in this game...   

So, all I can deduce from all this is - it's likely that there's a completely separate random chance that determines whether you get the base 50 shards or some multiple of it. And that the chance for 5-stars is lower than the chance for 4-stars (which can be seen in game), so the reset is more likely to happen with 4-star bonus shards.

Oh yeah, the highest count it reached was 56 pulls, 3 times. It's possible that is the ceiling the devs were talking about, at which point the cumulative odds of bonus shards happening reach 100%. But it's just 45 total times in my sample, so who knows.  

Here's the order in which the bonus shards happened, with number of pulls it took for each one:

45
42
56
39
12
56
51
51	, 5-star
47
32
17	, 8x 4-star
53
48	, 5-star
46
39
16
52
56	, 5-star
47
47
55	, 5-star
2
53	, 8x 4-star
51
12
40	, 5-star
47
52
44
53
44	, 8x 4-star
48
8
46
51
53
13
40	, 5-star
44	, 5-star
49	, 5-star
43	, 5-star
43	, 5-star
53
3	, 5-star
48

HoundofShadow

I've gotten only 50, 100 and maybe 400 4* shards before. For 5* it's either 50 or 500. I don't remember getting 100, 200 or 250 5* shards before.

This is my record for 4* bonus shard on the xth pull (all are 50 bonus 4* shards) after the last bonus shards pull. The most number of pulls it took to trigger bonus shard was 57, and the fewest was 2. However, 41 pulls look like the average number of pulls to trigger bonus shards, if I were to remove 2, 5 and 9. If not, it would be 35 pulls.

56, 32, 21, 38, 9, 41, 5, 46, 43, 55, 44, 43, 17, 2, 49, 57.

I've gotten 500 5* shards once, 50 5* and 100 4* shards a few times, and that's about it.

ThaRoadWarrior

https://forums.d3go.com/discussion/82009/r199-new-feature-bonus-shard-forced-timer

HoundofShadow

That's actually very interesting. The stated number is ~34 pulls. If I were to look at my own data, most of my pulls are around 4X, but the game "compensated" me by giving me extremely quick pull of 2, 5 or 9 to balance things out. My average, including the extreme small pulls, are 34.68, which I rounded off to 35. I'm not sure if it's safe to say that what they said are true, but it's pretty true for my pull rates. 

Kolence

Hound, that example of ~34 pulls was explicitly for single pack heroic tokens. You've just been luckier than some others with LT pulls, looks like, at least when it comes to bonus shards. 

HoundofShadow

Oops!

I see the LT also uses ~2% and ~<1% respectively. Will the differences be that significant?

ThaRoadWarrior

The part I find interesting is that the tracker doesn’t distinguish between 4 and 5*s. So you get whatever you happen to pull when the tracker tics, and there isn’t a catch-up specific to the “better” pulls from a given store.

Bad

It's so beautiful...
But I think I only got it just another time.
That was from past year when SW was released. 
50 5* are more common than 500, still I don't use to draw them too much.