Draw odds are Garbage!

2

Comments

  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
    I’m also tired of this topic showing up every month ad nauseum , as bbigler noted. And then the same discussion follows .
  • DyingLegend
    DyingLegend Posts: 1,210 Chairperson of the Boards
    Draw rates do seem a bit off... but bad streaks happen and droughts happen.

    Part of the MPQ hamster wheel
  • Srheer0
    Srheer0 Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    I've yet to see a 100 pull fail streak.
  • BriMan2222
    BriMan2222 Posts: 1,328 Chairperson of the Boards
    Srheer0 said:
    I've yet to see a 100 pull fail streak.
    and now that you've said that, get ready for a 100 pull fail streak.
  • MNboundWalrus
    MNboundWalrus Posts: 16 Just Dropped In
    I find it interesting that people have that many CPs saved up and expect a different rate of return in multiple pulls. 
    Just because a casino (for example) boasts a 97% slot payback, people will expect to get a return of $97 for every $100 they put into any given machine. That 97% payout is an average of all their machines over the course of months or years, not per machine.
    When I’m given a 1:7 chance of a 5*, I don’t assume I’m going to get one for every 7 pulls. Especially when I see a 4* with 35x odds in the 4* list. Have you noticed the Odds for getting a 4* have been removed? To me this could equate to odds of 93:100, or you might see seven 5*’s in every 100 pulls… over the course of several months if not years.
  • LavaManLee
    LavaManLee Posts: 1,461 Chairperson of the Boards
    Bad said:
    bbigler said:
      It’s funny because each pull is independent of the previous pulls and has no memory of past pulls. 
    In my future post I will prove the opposite. 
    How far into the future do we have to wait?
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,744 Chairperson of the Boards
    LavaManLee said:
    Bad said:
    bbigler said:
      It’s funny because each pull is independent of the previous pulls and has no memory of past pulls. 
    In my future post I will prove the opposite. 
    How far into the future do we have to wait?

    I think it's like Quantum Leap. He'll tell us when the next leap.....is the leap home.

    He might be a while.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    You all are funny. 
    I had to do a lot of work but it's done 
  • darkman84
    darkman84 Posts: 57 Match Maker
    I wonder if people would complain if the devs just simplified the algorithm to give a random 5* every 7th pull EXACTLY.
  • BlackBoltRocks
    BlackBoltRocks Posts: 1,193 Chairperson of the Boards
    darkman84 said:
    I wonder if people would complain if the devs just simplified the algorithm to give a random 5* every 7th pull EXACTLY.
    Yes they would, because that draw got them Abigail when they were hoping for Elektra.

    And even if they got an Elektra, they'd complain that it was the 8th Purple cover they got for her, instead of that last Red cover they really needed.
  • darkman84
    darkman84 Posts: 57 Match Maker
    Yeah, I'd guess people will always find something to complain about. Although I understand ones anger on having only single 5* in 80 pulls. But it is how it is, we all experienced something like that. And then there is a streak of 3/4 5* one after another.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    How many of you will submit a ticket to CS if you got three 5* out of 7 pulls in a special store and request them to exchange 2 of the random 5* to 2 random 4*, for the sake of fairness and because RNG is not working properly?
  • roderic1
    roderic1 Posts: 40 Just Dropped In
    Probably none of us. Especially since the 3 out of 7 probably brought us just barely back up to the stated odds across the board. 

    Though, I do recall opening a ticket once with CS because I'd drawn more Hawkeye's than I could use and wanted them converted to Panther/Thanos. But I digress....
  • NMANOZ1
    NMANOZ1 Posts: 130 Tile Toppler
    They can stop this happening by giving a 5 star automatically next pull if you don't get a 5 star in the last 50 pulls (as an example).
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    I wouldn't too. And that's the problem. We players are greedy. We want things to go things our way and any slight advantage we got randomly against the system should be seen as a norm or as an entitlement. We need to be aware that there are a few psychogical weaknesses or defects that inflicts us humans. They are:

    1) negative bias
    2) gambler's fallacy
    3) the belief that "I'm the lucky one". If I'm not as lucky as I feel I should, the system is rigged against me. This is very common among  those players pulling from Spicy Vault. To them, getting the 4* cover on the 40th pull = game is rigged. It's impossible to get 4* cover on the 40th pull. 
    4) need for perfection/consistency: 1/7 means I should get one 5* cover every pull. Unfortunately, probability doesn't work that way for small numbers consistently.

    The laws of large numbers go hand in hand with RNG. Unfortunately, due to the above, we feel that the system is garbage and rigged against us. But science/maths says otherwise.

    As for pity timer or its equivalent, the dev said/hinted before that putting pity timer into pulling LT/special stores cannot happen without adjusting the odds. If you are thinking they will change the odds from 15% to 18% pull rate, it's time to wake up. Chances are our odd will be reduced from 15% to 12% or fewer.




  • St_Bernadus
    St_Bernadus Posts: 640 Critical Contributor
    Pulling for 5 star characters should be a big exciting moment for a player of this game. It is very demoralizing when it does not work out. I know the odds will even out over time but I feel like they should even out over a shorter time than 1000s of pulls. And I think that even more for special stores, where no one could be expected to pull that many.
  • TheEyeDoctorsWife
    TheEyeDoctorsWife Posts: 829 Critical Contributor
    St_Bernadus said:
    Pulling for 5 star characters should be a big exciting moment for a player of this game. It is very demoralizing when it does not work out. I know the odds will even out over time but I feel like they should even out over a shorter time than 1000s of pulls. And I think that even more for special stores, where no one could be expected to pull that many.
    Demoralizing ??? !
  • St_Bernadus
    St_Bernadus Posts: 640 Critical Contributor
    Disheartening? Disappointing? Did you have a better adjective?

    I know that when you have saved up tokens for a while and it is finally time to open them and cover the latest 3, but instead you get just a few, it feels underwhelming at best, when it should be an exciting moment.
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,284 Chairperson of the Boards
    St_Bernadus said:
    Disheartening? Disappointing? Did you have a better adjective?

    I know that when you have saved up tokens for a while and it is finally time to open them and cover the latest 3, but instead you get just a few, it feels underwhelming at best, when it should be an exciting moment.
    It's more demoralizing when you are pulling for a specific 5* and don't get one.

    Because 5* are not close to being equal (some are meta, some trash), getting a 5* in and of itself isn't always satisfying in the same way that winning $100 on a lottery ticket isn't the same as winning $100K on a lottery ticket.

    Having bad luck in a meh store / meh latest legends isn't as bad as having bad luck in a store full of meta characters. That's why evening out in the long run doesn't make sense because it's like saying winning $100 5 times in the lottery is better than winning $100K once or twice.

    KGB

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