Draw odds are Garbage!

9RMetal
9RMetal Posts: 60 Match Maker
in MPQ General Discussion
What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
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  • MegaBee
    MegaBee Posts: 1,033 Chairperson of the Boards
    The RNG is a harsh mistress.
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,725 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2022
    It just took me 96 pulls to get one Crystal cover. I hear your frustrations. But it is what it is
  • Aweberman
    Aweberman Posts: 436 Mover and Shaker
    I have a run like that every 3-4 months.  And then you come out the other side of it and have a week where you have 20-30% of pulls be 5*.  It all averages out in the end.
  • 9RMetal
    9RMetal Posts: 60 Match Maker
    edited April 2022
    Borstock said:
    It just took me 96 pulls to get one Crystal cover. I hear your frustrations. But it is what it is
    That's *redacted* man.

    Mod note: Please refrain from using foul language on the forum. It's a violation of rule 6. - fight4thedream
  • shardwick
    shardwick Posts: 2,121 Chairperson of the Boards
    I mean I just pulled a 5* Star Lord from his cover store so I can't really complain. As for LL's yeah you can go on a stretch where you will pull very few 5s sometimes. On my last hoard I only did like a 14% pull rate which sucked.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    That's why it's good to track your pulls because it'll manage your emotions better. I had a few dry spells and it even out after that.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    9RMetal said:
    What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
    Are you saying you got just 1 5* cover out of 80 pulls?  Or just 1 Crystal cover out of 80 pulls?  

    If the former, then the odds of that happening are very very small, but still possible.  
  • NMANOZ1
    NMANOZ1 Posts: 126 Tile Toppler
    Got her on 2nd pull, 2 in total from 32 pulls (plus 4 each of the other 2). So 10 out of 32 is unusually good.
  • MadScientist
    MadScientist Posts: 317 Mover and Shaker
    bbigler said:
    9RMetal said:
    What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
    Are you saying you got just 1 5* cover out of 80 pulls?  Or just 1 Crystal cover out of 80 pulls?  

    If the former, then the odds of that happening are very very small, but still possible.  
    The probability to get exactly 1 5-Star cover from 80 legendary tokens is 0.85^79 * 0.15 * 80 = 3.186e-5 or about 1:31385. It is very very unlikely but not astronomically low.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm curious, when you hear players saying that they got 1 5* out of 80 pulls, what kind of result do you imagine?

    Are you thinking that that player pulled the 5* on the:

    1) 80th pull
    2) 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers
    3)20th pull, followed by 60 4* covers
    4) others

    It seems like eveyone defaults to 1 5* at the 80th pull. If the result is 1 5* at the 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers, does it change your perception?
  • roderic1
    roderic1 Posts: 40 Just Dropped In
    HoundofShadow said:
    That's why it's good to track your pulls because it'll manage your emotions better. I had a few dry spells and it even out after that.
    The more I think about it, the more I think the game should track this for us and have it easily accessible. Even though I do track my LL pulls, it seems dumb to tell users of a mobile game to track how bad their luck is so they can feel better about it when it finally creeps back up to the estimated probability. 
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,217 Chairperson of the Boards
    HoundofShadow said:
    I'm curious, when you hear players saying that they got 1 5* out of 80 pulls, what kind of result do you imagine?

    Are you thinking that that player pulled the 5* on the:

    1) 80th pull
    2) 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers
    3)20th pull, followed by 60 4* covers
    4) others

    It seems like eveyone defaults to 1 5* at the 80th pull. If the result is 1 5* at the 40th pull, followed by 40 4* covers, does it change your perception?
    4) Others: I presume they spent 2K CP for 80 pulls and got only 1 5* someplace in that 80.

    When players are looking for a specific character (ie Crystal) they'll write what Borstock wrote which is it took him 96 pulls to get one cover for her.

    KGB
  • Alfje17
    Alfje17 Posts: 3,793 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2022
    It does indeed even out in the end: my 5* pull rate is 15.9% or 1 in 6.3 (sample size of 2365 LLs), so I'm expecting a long dry spell to start anytime now.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    It's interesting how humans look at the same thing differently. 
  • 9RMetal
    9RMetal Posts: 60 Match Maker
    bbigler said:
    9RMetal said:
    What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
    Are you saying you got just 1 5* cover out of 80 pulls?  Or just 1 Crystal cover out of 80 pulls?  

    If the former, then the odds of that happening are very very small, but still possible.  
    Just one 5* and it was elektra.
  • Borstock
    Borstock Posts: 2,725 Chairperson of the Boards
    9RMetal said:
    bbigler said:
    9RMetal said:
    What the hell? Just spent 2k cp in LL and just got one 5*, the same problem also happens a lot to one of my alliance players, what kind of buffoonery is this!?
    Are you saying you got just 1 5* cover out of 80 pulls?  Or just 1 Crystal cover out of 80 pulls?  

    If the former, then the odds of that happening are very very small, but still possible.  
    Just one 5* and it was elektra.

    Dang. That's worse than mine. It took me 96 pulls to get Crystal rostered, but there were plenty of Abigails and two Elektras in there.
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    80 pulls for 1 5* it's a dry spell quite devastating, no matter if it's on the 30th pull or on the 80th, I can understand the frustration.
    I'm preparing a post of the results from my hoard and there I'll post videos when I have access to wifi in several days.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    First, I must point out that we have a thread like this every month and every month we tell that player that dry spells happen to all of us but the 5* rate evens out in the end.  

    Second, (guessing the 5* cover was in the middle) having a dry spell of 40 pulls is unlikely, but it still happens.  Having 2 back to back dry spells of 40 pulls is very very unlikely and I hope this player doesn’t lose hope because of it.  

    Third, I would bet that his 5* odds are going to be above 15% in the next 80 pulls.  The funny thing about probabilities is that there must be hot spells to offset the dry spells, because the average rate over time always approaches 15%.  It’s funny because each pull is independent of the previous pulls and has no memory of past pulls.  But…..without fail, “hot spells” follow dry spells, you just don’t know when they’re coming.  
  • Bad
    Bad Posts: 3,146 Chairperson of the Boards
    bbigler said:
      It’s funny because each pull is independent of the previous pulls and has no memory of past pulls. 
    In my future post I will prove the opposite. 

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