Zero 5* in 29 pulls?

Bad

Well, he got 14 bw, 14 sersi and 11 abigail. 
There is ours algorithm, ladies and gentlemen.
In real stadistics is absolutely possible to get 39 covers for the same character. It's in the random factor.
And it could get exactly the same color cover. I bet he got the 3 colors of each one in a good proportion.
I always heard on the forum that it was needed 300 pulls to champ 3 LLs, for warding of bad rng.
However he, same as me, got a really close to a similar proportion in order to champ the 3 in almost 250 pulls. 
That is not stadistics. Because stadistics never repeat one time after another and to one player and another one as the same outcome.

illusionist_KA

just a small insight, the last time i unhoarded, i went 0 for 57 3x....0 for 63 1x, and 0 for 75 1x. it did even out sometime later on. where i pulled 15* in 25 pulls. i was around 13.8% at the end. i had 3300 pulls when i started, and emptied it completely. not great numbers, and CS is useless in helping out . because they look at your ( 8 year play history - mine) entire history and tell you that you're at 15% to get rid of you bothering them. conclusion - have a larger opening hoard and it will even out eventually. don't forget, pulls are pre-determined.

entrailbucket

Bad said:

Well, he got 14 bw, 14 sersi and 11 abigail. 
There is ours algorithm, ladies and gentlemen.
In real stadistics is absolutely possible to get 39 covers for the same character. It's in the random factor.
And it could get exactly the same color cover. I bet he got the 3 colors of each one in a good proportion.
I always heard on the forum that it was needed 300 pulls to champ 3 LLs, for warding of bad rng.
However he, same as me, got a really close to a similar proportion in order to champ the 3 in almost 250 pulls. 
That is not stadistics. Because stadistics never repeat one time after another and to one player and another one as the same outcome.

You have to remember, there's a group of players who've basically made it their life's work to optimize this superhero phone game and take advantage of anything they can find.  People have looked at this in depth for years. 

The number of pulls we're talking about in this thread is still tiny.  I think one of the community studies from years ago had like 20,000 pull results in it?  I'm sure someone's done more since then.  Players dedicate huge amounts of time and brainpower to finding any pattern, to get the tiniest edge.

Nobody has ever found anything.  It's random.  If it wasn't strictly random, it'd be optimizable for an advantage, and we would know exactly how to optimize it.

HoundofShadow

I pulled 72 Classic recently. Here's the n-th pull:

4: Rescue
14: Loki
17: Daredevil
26: Samurai Daken
31: Odin
35: Ghost Rider
48: Mr Sinister + 50 bonus 4* shards

7/72 = 9.722%

As you can see, the pull rate is pretty low. From 49th to 72th pull, I don't have any 5*. If this thread is still around when I make my next Classic pull in May, I'll update the Classic pulls to see if my rate will become better.

fractalvisions

KGB said:

fractalvisions said:

This shows the value of only opening when you plan to open a very large amount.

KGB

Only if you're the kind of person who grumbles about long dry streaks. How many you open in one go has no effect on the outcome. Although, perhaps an alternative is to open in small groups. You'll hardly be surprised if you open four tokens and they are all 4*.

P.S. @entrailbucket I was literally just about to post about the shuffle story. 

It's more than avoiding grumbling about dry streaks. Opening a bunch piecemeal means there is an excellent chance you get nothing / way under what you expect to get for a given special store (or latest legends).

As I posted above someplace, getting a dry spell matters a lot in the short run because not all special stores/latest legends stores are the same. They are theoretically the same in that they contain 3 5*, but the quality of those 3 varies wildly so having a dry spell in a high value store hurts way more than in a low quality store.

So someone who got a 10% draw rate this store can really fall far behind someone who got 20% in the same store. Even though neither player did anything to deserve the extra or lesser luck.

KGB

It's certainly true that there may be other reasons to wait. However, in my opinion, if the 5* covers are immediately useful, then even the person with a 10% draw rate is ahead of the person who decided to hoard their CP for some future point when they'll have enough to be confident of a draw rate close to 15%. For instance, I first got covers for Apoc when he was in latest. I have since built him up to 13 covers over 3 different special stores. Being one of my best characters, each time I added more covers made him even more useful.