Zero 5* in 29 pulls?

Siv75

Honestly, how does game mechanics work when you cant pull one 5* cover in 29 pulls? If odd are supposed to be 1 in 7, how does the game allow such outliers as 0 in 29 pulls? 

This entirely breaks the game as far as I'm concerned. It takes months of daily effort to save enough CPs to wait for one good store to come by. And when this happens... it is so demotivating I find it difficult to continue playing. 

Statistically, the chances of this happening by random is minuscule but this has happened to me 3 times so far with special stores. It is beyond ridiculous and creates such a negative experience I'm finding it difficult to find a reason to continue playing this game. 

Sure, I may not spend thousands to get  charachters to 550 but I have spent money being VIP...little that I can afford. All some of us would be contented with is a slow progress towards something...maybe championing a 5*. But what just happened means no progress for the last few months of effort. 

How can the game be designed to allow this? It is simply not good and you should do better. 

Absolutely ridiculous 

TheEyeDoctorsWife

There is no guarantee you ever pull a 5* regardless of what the devs and programmers tell you or even other players here . All it means is EACH TIME your chance of pulling a 5* is 1 in approximately 7. Luck is not involved in an RNG algorithm, good or bad. You’re rolling a 7 sided die and hoping for a 7. 

sinnerjfl

This is the reason why I avoid these special limited CP stores. Unless you have a lot of CP stocked up, you can go 0 for 29 and then you are screwed, you get nothing.

In the Latests store, at least you got time on your side. You might get a dry spell like that but it will eventually even all out.

I do agree though this game would benefit from "sparking" or whatever they want to call it, after X number of pulls, you're guaranteed a 5*. Bonus shards are supposed to alleviate the problem but they happen far too rarely for 5*'s to matter.

fractalvisions

If the chance of pulling a 4* is 6 in 7 then the chance of pulling 29 4*s is (6/7)^29, which is 1%. Hardly minuscule.

Siv75

TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

There is no guarantee you ever pull a 5* regardless of what the devs and programmers tell you or even other players here . All it means is EACH TIME your chance of pulling a 5* is 1 in approximately 7. Luck is not involved in an RNG algorithm, good or bad. You’re rolling a 7 sided die and hoping for a 7. 

Firstly, The chances for a 7 sided die to get series of such results is less than 1% statistically. Unless the die is loaded. It has been 20 years since I graduated having done 4th year stats...but am pretty sure that math doesnt add up.

Secondly, the game mentioned 1 in 7 chance. At which point does it become an issue when you get nothing at 8, 20, 30, 3000? Following that logic it would not be an issue even at 1,000,000. 

Try 3 times spending between 725 to 1000 CPs each time and getting 0 each time. At which point does it become an issue? 

Siv75

sinnerjfl said:

This is the reason why I avoid these special limited CP stores. Unless you have a lot of CP stocked up, you can go 0 for 29 and then you are screwed, you get nothing.

In the Latests store, at least you got time on your side. You might get a dry spell like that but it will eventually even all out.

I do agree though this game would benefit from "sparking" or whatever they want to call it, after X number of pulls, you're guaranteed a 5*. Bonus shards are supposed to alleviate the problem but they happen far too rarely for 5*'s to matter.

I play this game with son. Why would I play this if its gonna make him cry. Which is why I save up a lot of CPs so the chances of this happening would be reduced. I think we have made a decision to cancel VIP and leave the game for good. What's the point of playing a game that gets you down and make you feel regret playing the game. It is shameful...

a lot of people here seem to state things like there is no issue if something like this happens. Even if you want a kid to feel like they are the unluckiest in the world 3 times this year, there should be some brains behind at which point is it a technical issue, o in 30, 0 in 40, 0 in 50 pulls? Then perhaps state...odds are 1 in 7 to 50 pulls.  otherwise by default 1 to 1 million odd is also not an issue. 

That's the answer I'm looking for. As a software developer, you dont just do a x = rand(1, 7, time) and expect the generator to deal with the odds. If you do, at which point do you know that the generator is running into an issue with the time input? And at whose cost? 

JHawkInc

If you think it's an issue, you can contact customer service, and they can check your overall results, and if it IS an issue, they can do something about it.

But if you've just had a string of bad luck, tough cookies, unfortunately.

HoundofShadow

I went 50+ pulls without a single 5* before and after I dumped in more cps, 5* starts dropping every other pulls until it starts hitting 13% or more. On the other hand, there are players who got 4 5* in fewer than 10 pulls.

Since you study statistics, you should know that probability works better for large sample size. 29 pulls aren't big by any means. That's why 7500 cps or 300 pulls are recommended.

I've played other games with such RNGs and the advices are always to hoard enough for a good probability of getting characters that you want. Even if you quit MPQ and jump into other games with such RNG feature, you'll face the same problem if you didn't hoard enough. So, you've to look for F2P games with pity timer built in, or simply play games without lootboxes.

Bad

For 29 pulls you could got 3 5*s at the very most. 
I don't understand why people pulls with that low hoard, and get angry so much.
You can contact CS and they can throw you in 2 covers. Not a game breaker anyway.
If the system was off people who pulls a lot more than you would start complaining.
My experience pulling says totally the opposite.

captainheath

A life lesson for your kid.  Don't feed the victim mindset to him.

fractalvisions

Siv75 said:

TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

There is no guarantee you ever pull a 5* regardless of what the devs and programmers tell you or even other players here . All it means is EACH TIME your chance of pulling a 5* is 1 in approximately 7. Luck is not involved in an RNG algorithm, good or bad. You’re rolling a 7 sided die and hoping for a 7. 

Firstly, The chances for a 7 sided die to get series of such results is less than 1% statistically. Unless the die is loaded. It has been 20 years since I graduated having done 4th year stats...but am pretty sure that math doesnt add up.
 

I gave you the equation showing you that it really is 1%. Where do you see the problem?

You can either use this as a way to teach your son about probability or find a game that is pure strategy and doesn't involve luck. 

Siv75

JHawkInc said:

If you think it's an issue, you can contact customer service, and they can check your overall results, and if it IS an issue, they can do something about it.

But if you've just had a string of bad luck, tough cookies, unfortunately.

Thanks for this. I have contact them. Let's see what they say. 

Sekilicious

This is why the recommended number of pulls is 300 to fully cover a 5*. The average to get 39 5* covers is 260, the extra 40 is to counter bad rng. More pulls means you can even out your dry spells.

It is important to remember that 1% isn’t 0% though people like to think it is. It means that, on average, for every 100 people making 30 pulls one will miss out. Tinykitty, 0.1% means the same for every 1000 people, which means that it happens all the time. If everyone got 4.5 then you you know the dice are loaded. 

So the moral of the story is hoard 7500 cp if you want your best chance at getting what you want from a special store. Or don’t play games that are rng based, but who knows if there are any of those anymore.

Siv75

fractalvisions said:

Siv75 said:

TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

There is no guarantee you ever pull a 5* regardless of what the devs and programmers tell you or even other players here . All it means is EACH TIME your chance of pulling a 5* is 1 in approximately 7. Luck is not involved in an RNG algorithm, good or bad. You’re rolling a 7 sided die and hoping for a 7. 

Firstly, The chances for a 7 sided die to get series of such results is less than 1% statistically. Unless the die is loaded. It has been 20 years since I graduated having done 4th year stats...but am pretty sure that math doesnt add up.
 

I gave you the equation showing you that it really is 1%. Where do you see the problem?

You can either use this as a way to teach your son about probability or find a game that is pure strategy and doesn't involve luck. 

Can't use that formula. For example 1% does not represent when you parameters like number of pulls, number of sessions added to the formula. There is another one used for dice specifically. Besides, computers use a random number generator that is grounded with the CPUs time. There are errors that can happen due to various factors that good programs cater for in representing math digitally. 

In any case, don't think my 7 and 10 year olds are ready for these lessons yet. 

The factor I'm speaking to is the human factor. You can have such an experience that completely devastates. Even a child can understand what 1 in 7 odds mean. They can probably even be okay with 1 5* after 29 pulls. But 0? That makes it impossible. Especially after having it hit us 3 times. The first 2 times we wrote it off as bad luck. By the third time...its like...what's the point. The game is too disappointing to play. Even creates anxiety ... 

Many here are saying 725 CPs is not much... in the grand scheme of things, maybe it isn't. We just lost a close friend to an accident today. I thought...hey... lets distact the kids with something ...and decided to spend the CPs he's been saving to cheer him up. Something every parent possibly would have thought of. There is a human factor to all this and I hope those who are so confidently saying 725 or 1000 is nothing and you need 7500 .... there is no harm to be competitive. But take into account that some of us play for fun with the family.

But how does that go into the simple issue of a company giving 1 in 7 odd coming short or not having an answer to at what point does it become an issue? Because by that logic, the game can never be faulty... no software engineer in the world would sign off to that. There must be a limit that says beyond a certain point, we have issues that has crossed a threshold. What is that threshold? 

dianetics

It sucks to get a bad run. I’m in the midst of a terrible run right now. My last 200 pulls or so has netted be a gigantic 8% 5* pull rate.

I am just going to keep on pulling because it will even out eventually.  Right before my drought I had 4 strait pulls of Shang Chi.

Even with this abysmal rate I still champed Gamora and got Sersi to 12 covers. Big Wheel is at 8 covers so whenever he hits 13-15 covers I’ll go back to hoarding.

Remember this game is a marathon not a sprint.

HoundofShadow

Please update everyone here the result of your appeal.

Bad

The dices are loaded but with great odds.
Rng loads a number of 5*s in a number of pulls and in a close to similar distribution, and on 2 times I champed the 3 LL with 230 pulls.
When there is a empty streak, it's possible than a bit further there will come many 5 together.
But it must be pulled on the same store characters.
You can believe it or not, it's fine for me.
But I find really funny that with 29 pulls you start an uprage so big.
What did you expect, to get 20 5*s with 29 pulls?
Quit the game, or be interested in to know how to advance and ask how.
Decisions, decisions.

DAZ0273

My longest run was 59 pulls with no 5*. It is disheartening but the game is programmed to swing back in your favour at some point. Scant consolation when all your CP is gone though definitely.

Sekilicious

Siv75 said:

fractalvisions said:

Siv75 said:

TheEyeDoctorsWife said:

There is no guarantee you ever pull a 5* regardless of what the devs and programmers tell you or even other players here . All it means is EACH TIME your chance of pulling a 5* is 1 in approximately 7. Luck is not involved in an RNG algorithm, good or bad. You’re rolling a 7 sided die and hoping for a 7. 

Firstly, The chances for a 7 sided die to get series of such results is less than 1% statistically. Unless the die is loaded. It has been 20 years since I graduated having done 4th year stats...but am pretty sure that math doesnt add up.
 

I gave you the equation showing you that it really is 1%. Where do you see the problem?

You can either use this as a way to teach your son about probability or find a game that is pure strategy and doesn't involve luck. 

Can't use that formula. For example 1% does not represent when you parameters like number of pulls, number of sessions added to the formula. There is another one used for dice specifically. Besides, computers use a random number generator that is grounded with the CPUs time. There are errors that can happen due to various factors that good programs cater for in representing math digitally. 

In any case, don't think my 7 and 10 year olds are ready for these lessons yet. 

The factor I'm speaking to is the human factor. You can have such an experience that completely devastates. Even a child can understand what 1 in 7 odds mean. They can probably even be okay with 1 5* after 29 pulls. But 0? That makes it impossible. Especially after having it hit us 3 times. The first 2 times we wrote it off as bad luck. By the third time...its like...what's the point. The game is too disappointing to play. Even creates anxiety ... 

Many here are saying 725 CPs is not much... in the grand scheme of things, maybe it isn't. We just lost a close friend to an accident today. I thought...hey... lets distact the kids with something ...and decided to spend the CPs he's been saving to cheer him up. Something every parent possibly would have thought of. There is a human factor to all this and I hope those who are so confidently saying 725 or 1000 is nothing and you need 7500 .... there is no harm to be competitive. But take into account that some of us play for fun with the family.

But how does that go into the simple issue of a company giving 1 in 7 odd coming short or not having an answer to at what point does it become an issue? Because by that logic, the game can never be faulty... no software engineer in the world would sign off to that. There must be a limit that says beyond a certain point, we have issues that has crossed a threshold. What is that threshold? 

See if you’re saying using an rng system to determine rewards is a faulty  business practice then I agree. That is one of the main problems with video games today. I’m not entirely sure why we gravitate to these games so much but it seems to be working as a strategy to separate most of us from our money. 

Alfje17

Statistics are always fun, but nothing beats some real data:

2189 Legendary pulls netted me 342 5* or 15.62% (1 in 7 is 14.29%, so I'm luckier than average).

I don't remember what my driest spell was, it was definitely long enough to get annoyed

Then again, my best pull was 7 5* out of 10 tokens (+ 1 Bonus 4*, so that was a lot of luck!).

In the end it all evens out and your streak of (bad) luck will come to an end.

entrailbucket

Why does everyone think they know how these random number generator algorithms work, and why does everyone think they work exactly like the rand() function from your graphing calculator 20 years ago?

The rand() function from your graphing calculator would be a terrible way to do this sort of thing.  Luckily, anything written in the past few decades that doesn't run on a calculator uses a random number generator algorithm that's "seeded" with something like radioactive decay or electronic noise and is essentially indistinguishable from true mathematical randomness.

If you have a problem with luck-based lootbox games, or you don't understand basic probability, there are tens of thousands of super fun games to play that don't use those mechanics.