JHawkInc said: My biggest problem with this is that Supports are essentially an abandoned half-baked feature. So milking it for profit instead of fixing it is scummy and disappointing.
bbigler said: Here’s the probability:1 Support Token:3* = 85.0%4* = 12.5%5* = 2.5%2 Support Tokens:3* = 72.3%4* = 22.8%5* = 4.9%Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 5 Tokens: 3* = 44.4%4* = 43.7%5* = 11.9%10 Tokens: 3* = 19.7%4* = 57.9%5* = 22.4%20 Tokens: 3* = 3.9%4* = 56.4%5* = 39.7%I would pay $30 for 20 tokens if it’s a support I want. I think the devs are thinking that getting a 5* support is like fully covering a 5*. But supports only work in PVE and are only good on certain characters. So, it’s not the same.
Rhipf said: bbigler said: Here’s the probability:1 Support Token:3* = 85.0%4* = 12.5%5* = 2.5%2 Support Tokens:3* = 72.3%4* = 22.8%5* = 4.9%Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 5 Tokens: 3* = 44.4%4* = 43.7%5* = 11.9%10 Tokens: 3* = 19.7%4* = 57.9%5* = 22.4%20 Tokens: 3* = 3.9%4* = 56.4%5* = 39.7% Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.
bbigler said: Here’s the probability:1 Support Token:3* = 85.0%4* = 12.5%5* = 2.5%2 Support Tokens:3* = 72.3%4* = 22.8%5* = 4.9%Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 5 Tokens: 3* = 44.4%4* = 43.7%5* = 11.9%10 Tokens: 3* = 19.7%4* = 57.9%5* = 22.4%20 Tokens: 3* = 3.9%4* = 56.4%5* = 39.7%
bbigler said: Rhipf said: bbigler said: Here’s the probability:1 Support Token:3* = 85.0%4* = 12.5%5* = 2.5%2 Support Tokens:3* = 72.3%4* = 22.8%5* = 4.9%Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 5 Tokens: 3* = 44.4%4* = 43.7%5* = 11.9%10 Tokens: 3* = 19.7%4* = 57.9%5* = 22.4%20 Tokens: 3* = 3.9%4* = 56.4%5* = 39.7% Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance. This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x 3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this
Rhipf said: bbigler said: Rhipf said: bbigler said: Here’s the probability:1 Support Token:3* = 85.0%4* = 12.5%5* = 2.5%2 Support Tokens:3* = 72.3%4* = 22.8%5* = 4.9%Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 5 Tokens: 3* = 44.4%4* = 43.7%5* = 11.9%10 Tokens: 3* = 19.7%4* = 57.9%5* = 22.4%20 Tokens: 3* = 3.9%4* = 56.4%5* = 39.7% Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance. This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x 3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this I'm not sure why you would want to calculate the odds as you stated. Isn't the whole point of using a support token to get a support? There really isn't any reason to calculate how many of a particular rank you pull in a row. You can only have one support so if you pull 20 rank 3s in a row who cares. I would much rather know the odds of getting a particular rank of a support. If you are pulling for a rank 3 support are you really going to complain that you got a rank 5 instead?P.S. The rank 5 odds are the same for both of us because that is the only one that we are both only concerned about the odds of pulling a rank 5 and don't care what other ranks may also be pulled.