Royal Talon Support Lottery - $30?

Srheer0

No! F2P or Bust!

JHawkInc said:

My biggest problem with this is that Supports are essentially an abandoned half-baked feature. So milking it for profit instead of fixing it is scummy and disappointing.

I have to echo Jhawk's thoughts.  

Selling a chance at a support upgrade is indeed bad practice.  

I might be wrong, but didn't D3 say in the past they wouldn't make supports affect pvp AND they would never directly sell them? Technically it isn't directly selling because gatcha mechanics. But still.  

2.5% chance to get a 5star support. Not a great deal.

The odds are even worse on the advanced token that comes with the deal. 

HoundofShadow

Did they say that? They have been selling Support in bundles since years ago, albeit not as often. I remember they sold Chimichanga bundle and other support tokens bundles.

Srheer0

No! F2P or Bust!

I guess they didn't say anything about not selling them for money. Searched and re-read all the support news things I could find.

HoundofShadow

CP is the one where they said it won't be for sales; at least that was what the elder players said. I played way after cps was created.

Rhipf

bbigler said:

Here’s the probability:

1 Support Token:
3* = 85.0%
4* = 12.5%

5* = 2.5%

2 Support Tokens:
3* = 72.3%
4* = 22.8%
5* = 4.9%

Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 

5 Tokens: 
3* = 44.4%
4* = 43.7%
5* = 11.9%

10 Tokens: 
3* = 19.7%
4* = 57.9%
5* = 22.4%

20 Tokens: 
3* = 3.9%
4* = 56.4%
5* = 39.7%

I would pay $30 for 20 tokens if it’s a support I want. I think the devs are thinking that getting a 5* support is like fully covering a 5*. But supports only work in PVE and are only good on certain characters. So, it’s not the same. 

Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.

rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)

rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)

rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)

Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.

Warbringa

Lower Price (include below)

A while back when Okoye was a main go to for me I would have considered this offer at a lower price point but I wouldn't pay anything for it now as I don't even use Okoye in PvE or PvP since Colossus/Switch/SC/BRB teams work better for me.  

The only legacy 5* I still use a lot of is 5* Thor to gather AP and I use 5* Yelena a lot in PvP (don't know if she would be legacy or not as I know many people say she is the start of modern 5*). 

bbigler

Lower Price (include below)

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Here’s the probability:

1 Support Token:
3* = 85.0%
4* = 12.5%

5* = 2.5%

2 Support Tokens:
3* = 72.3%
4* = 22.8%
5* = 4.9%

Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 

5 Tokens: 
3* = 44.4%
4* = 43.7%
5* = 11.9%

10 Tokens: 
3* = 19.7%
4* = 57.9%
5* = 22.4%

20 Tokens: 
3* = 3.9%
4* = 56.4%
5* = 39.7%

Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.

rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)

rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)

rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)

Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.

This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x  3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. 

Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. 

My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. 

PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this

Rhipf

bbigler said:

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Here’s the probability:

1 Support Token:
3* = 85.0%
4* = 12.5%

5* = 2.5%

2 Support Tokens:
3* = 72.3%
4* = 22.8%
5* = 4.9%

Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 

5 Tokens: 
3* = 44.4%
4* = 43.7%
5* = 11.9%

10 Tokens: 
3* = 19.7%
4* = 57.9%
5* = 22.4%

20 Tokens: 
3* = 3.9%
4* = 56.4%
5* = 39.7%

Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.

rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)

rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)

rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)

Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.

This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x  3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. 

Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. 

My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. 

PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this

I'm not sure why you would want to calculate the odds as you stated. Isn't the whole point of using a support token to get a support? There really isn't any reason to calculate how many of a particular rank you pull in a row. You can only have one support so if you pull 20 rank 3s in a row who cares. I would much rather know the odds of getting a particular rank of a support.

If you are pulling for a rank 3 support are you really going to complain that you got a rank 5 instead?

P.S. The rank 5 odds are the same for both of us because that is the only one that we are both only concerned about the odds of pulling a rank 5 and don't care what other ranks may also be pulled.

KGB

For CP or HP, I'd think about it.

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Here’s the probability:

1 Support Token:
3* = 85.0%
4* = 12.5%

5* = 2.5%

2 Support Tokens:
3* = 72.3%
4* = 22.8%
5* = 4.9%

Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 

5 Tokens: 
3* = 44.4%
4* = 43.7%
5* = 11.9%

10 Tokens: 
3* = 19.7%
4* = 57.9%
5* = 22.4%

20 Tokens: 
3* = 3.9%
4* = 56.4%
5* = 39.7%

Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.

rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)

rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)

rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)

Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.

This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x  3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. 

Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. 

My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. 

PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this

I'm not sure why you would want to calculate the odds as you stated. Isn't the whole point of using a support token to get a support? There really isn't any reason to calculate how many of a particular rank you pull in a row. You can only have one support so if you pull 20 rank 3s in a row who cares. I would much rather know the odds of getting a particular rank of a support.

If you are pulling for a rank 3 support are you really going to complain that you got a rank 5 instead?

P.S. The rank 5 odds are the same for both of us because that is the only one that we are both only concerned about the odds of pulling a rank 5 and don't care what other ranks may also be pulled.

Actually the way he wrote it is mathematically correct. Odds are supposed to add up to 100% and his does.

What you say you wanted to know is the chance to draw *at least* a support of that rank. To figure that out, you just sum up his numbers. So for a rank 3 it's 3.9+56.4+39.7=100% (as you wrote it). For a rank 4 it's 56.4+39.7=96.1% (your math is off slightly somewhere at 93%). For a rank 5 it's 39.7% (essentially your number if you rounded up).

KGB

bbigler

Lower Price (include below)

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Rhipf said:

bbigler said:

Here’s the probability:

1 Support Token:
3* = 85.0%
4* = 12.5%

5* = 2.5%

2 Support Tokens:
3* = 72.3%
4* = 22.8%
5* = 4.9%

Those are bad odds for $30. I would pay $3 instead. What if they included more tokens? 

5 Tokens: 
3* = 44.4%
4* = 43.7%
5* = 11.9%

10 Tokens: 
3* = 19.7%
4* = 57.9%
5* = 22.4%

20 Tokens: 
3* = 3.9%
4* = 56.4%
5* = 39.7%

Probabilities don't work this way. The more pulls you make the better your chances of the desired outcome occurring (at least once). After 20 pulls the odds that you would get at least one rank 3 RTF is definitely not going to be 3.9% but will be very close to 100% (it would round up to 100%). The odds for pulling at least one of each rank would also increase. Here are the actual odds of pulling at least one of each rank of RTF after 20 pulls.

rank 3 RTF ~100% (~100% after 10 pulls, ~100% after 5 pulls and ~98% after 2 pulls)

rank 4 RTF ~93% (~74% after 10 pulls, ~49% after 5 pulls and ~23% after 2 pulls)

rank 5 RFT ~40% (~22% after 10 pulls, ~12% after 5 and ~5% after 2 pulls pulls)

Note: the probability that something happens at least once in n attempts is 1−(1−p)^n where p is the probability of the event happening per instance.

This is a misunderstanding of what my percentages mean. Regarding the 20 token odds: there’s a 3.9% chance of getting 20 x  3* supports in a row, meaning no 4*s or 5*s in 20 pulls. So, it’s very unlikely that you end up with a 3* support after 20 pulls. 

Your 5* odds are the same as mine, just rounded more. 

My 4* probability of 56.4% are the odds of ending up with a 4* support after 20 pulls, which means you didn’t get any 5* supports in those pulls but you also didn’t get 20 x 3* supports in a row either. When calculating probabilities you must consider all possible outcomes. So, do your calculation again for pulling a 4* but not a 5* support in 20 tokens. 

PS: please don’t take offense to this, I appreciate people that like math and calculate stuff like this

I'm not sure why you would want to calculate the odds as you stated. Isn't the whole point of using a support token to get a support? There really isn't any reason to calculate how many of a particular rank you pull in a row. You can only have one support so if you pull 20 rank 3s in a row who cares. I would much rather know the odds of getting a particular rank of a support.

If you are pulling for a rank 3 support are you really going to complain that you got a rank 5 instead?

P.S. The rank 5 odds are the same for both of us because that is the only one that we are both only concerned about the odds of pulling a rank 5 and don't care what other ranks may also be pulled.

There’s some more misunderstanding here. I’m referring to the “Legendary“ support tokens that reward a 3*, 4*, 5*…… no 2*s. 

And of course, pulling a 5* trumps any 4* pull. So the odds of a pulling a 5* must be subtracted from the 4* odds. 

So, if I asked “What’s more likely after 20 pulls: ending up with a 4* or 5* support?” Since the probability of ending up with a 4* is 56.4% (and 39.7% for a 5*), you’re more likely to end up with a 4*. It’s also very unlikely that you end up with a 3*, because the only way for that to happen is by getting 20 in a row. 

At 27 pulls the odds are roughly equal between 4* and 5*.  With more pulls than that, you’re more likely to end up with a 5*.  For example, with 40 pulls, your 5* odds are 63.7%. 

Bottom Line: between 6 and 26 pulls from these “Legendary” support tokens, you’re more likely to end up with a 4* support in the end. After 27 pulls, you’re more likely to end up with a 5* support. So if D3 wants to sell us tokens, give us at least 6. 

Alfje17

For CP or HP, I'd think about it.

Got a Rank 3 already and based on previous luck with support tokens, no point in entering this lottery.

Used that £30 to buy a secondhand Lego B-Wing... definitely worth it!

Seph1roth5

I love mpq but this game has the worst pricing I've ever seen.  Other games have guaranteed (whatever the max) star tickets, and more of them.  Paying a ton of HP/CP/$ and getting like...3 CP or 3 LL is just ridiculous.

TheEyeDoctorsWife

No! F2P or Bust!

Thanks for complaining about supports, here’s your Spider Sense. - MPQ devs