When will Havok go into LL

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wymtime
wymtime Posts: 3,757 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion
So we always have a discussion on when a new 5* will go into packs and the last 4 releases have been inconsistent, I figured a poll will create a little more statistical data, guessing and fun.

so step right up take you guess when will Havok make his way into LL

When will Havok go into LL 32 votes

2 weeks after release 3/12
0%
2 weeks after HP store closes 3/19
15%
rdvargas1LLohmSt_Bernadusspidyjedi84h3dbngr 5 votes
2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
56%
KolencesinnerjflkillercoolGrimSkaldwymtimeAXP_ismeLFChikarasonStevO-JJackDeath666JHawkIncrg72KGBAlfje17Mjolnirmight2crackninjaLoneHawkeye658_2MegaBee 18 votes
Other please explain
28%
Wonko33CT1888pheregasbluewolfSteve111brollHilkEd_DragonriderGodzillafan67 9 votes
«1

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  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,310 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Other please explain
    The day after a bundle selling Carnage shards closes. 
  • StevO-J
    StevO-J Posts: 746 Critical Contributor
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    2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
    Godzillafan67 said:
    Right before they tell us.
    Well, there would have to be some form of communication for that to happen. That's getting pretty rare these days...  ;)
  • wymtime
    wymtime Posts: 3,757 Chairperson of the Boards
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    2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
    bluewolf said:
    The day after a bundle selling Carnage shards closes. 
    No it would be the day before a bundle for carnage shards are offered.  This way all the people who want carnage champed will have to buy the bundle 
  • Vins2
    Vins2 Posts: 183 Tile Toppler
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    Godzillafan67 said:
    Right before they tell us.
    Oh no Havok's never coming!
  • Wonko33
    Wonko33 Posts: 985 Critical Contributor
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    Other please explain
    If we learned anything from Mr Sinister it's that we don't know, if you think it's useful to read about speculation then yes this thread will be very useful 
  • jredd
    jredd Posts: 1,387 Chairperson of the Boards
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    they're going to do something unprecedented and put prof x back in latests instead of havok. 
  • CT1888
    CT1888 Posts: 1,201 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Other please explain
    He'll be in tokens tomorrow, but by old Gaullic philosophy we understand that tomorrow never comes.... 
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,916 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Hopefully as late as possible. This accelerated release rate could be the death knell for many.
  • Steve111
    Steve111 Posts: 160 Tile Toppler
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    Other please explain
    They may want to move BRB out quickly as he was too good. 
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,916 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Professor is arguably as good or better than Bill and had the longest span of time in Latests ever. If anything they are pushing Carnage out because he’s not as well-received. 
  • Ed_Dragonrider
    Ed_Dragonrider Posts: 581 Critical Contributor
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    Other please explain
    When someone finally remembers to push the button....
  • Hilk
    Hilk Posts: 131 Tile Toppler
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    Other please explain
    Whenever the RNG says...
  • pheregas
    pheregas Posts: 1,721 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Other please explain
    They've defaulted to flipping a coin.  Heads means time after HP store.  Tails means time after CP store.  Then they roll a d10 and it's that many days after the first coin flip.

    All hail our lord and savior, RNGesus.
  • JHawkInc
    JHawkInc Posts: 2,601 Chairperson of the Boards
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    2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
    It's always two weeks after the CP store closes. We've had two deviations, one over the holiday (expected, since no one would have been in the office), and one where they tried doing it two weeks after the new HP store. And they apparently decided not to do that again.

    It hasn't suddenly become unpredictable. Outside of the one two weeks after the HP store, it's followed the same pattern for years.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,310 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited March 2020
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    Other please explain
    JHawkInc said:
    It's always two weeks after the CP store closes. We've had two deviations, one over the holiday (expected, since no one would have been in the office), and one where they tried doing it two weeks after the new HP store. And they apparently decided not to do that again.

    It hasn't suddenly become unpredictable. Outside of the one two weeks after the HP store, it's followed the same pattern for years.
    Unpredictable?  No, not really.  I did think it was usually a Monday but no big deal if it's Tuesday from now on.

    To be fair to everyone, they shook up the release plan quite a bit between: 
    1.  Starting the "HP Store" release model and
    2.  SCL10 offering shards for new 5's.

    So a bit of confusion is understandable.

    My serious answer is that they will stick to the "2 weeks after CP store" model as @JHawkInc says.  In a way that makes sense in terms of trying to convince people to spend in the HP store.   By the time the CP store has been closed for 2 weeks, the new character boost is almost over (about 2-3 days of use).  So players who really want the boost on a new 5 need to chase them in HP store, or use up CP in their CP store vs hoarding LTs and CP and getting (under the old release model) about a week and a half of a boosted 5.

    Of course that all applies mostly to the top spenders in the game.  Assuming they keep the idea (as they have) that the new 5 isn't essential until they are in Latests, mere mortals can keep hoarding LTs and CP and grab the new 5 that way.
  • GrimSkald
    GrimSkald Posts: 2,490 Chairperson of the Boards
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    2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
    JHawkInc said:
    It's always two weeks after the CP store closes. We've had two deviations, one over the holiday (expected, since no one would have been in the office), and one where they tried doing it two weeks after the new HP store. And they apparently decided not to do that again.

    It hasn't suddenly become unpredictable. Outside of the one two weeks after the HP store, it's followed the same pattern for years.

    Technically the last release was a deviation - it came out on Tuesday rather than Monday. It used to be Monday on the Data Push.  My guess is the last release was a delay due to a mistake or something else - it is a manual process so possibly the person responsible wasn't in on Monday or else maybe they were closed, or someone forgot, or something like that.
    Regardless, I think we can safely say that while it was a deviation, it wasn't a significant deviation and can be one explained by circumstance.  At this point I'd expect Havok in tokens two weeks from today.
  • broll
    broll Posts: 4,732 Chairperson of the Boards
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    Other please explain
    If they really are adopting a 4/5/4/5 then I could see them swapping on the same day the new 5* releases.  I wouldn't bet on it, but at this point with no communication on changes and a lot of consistency flying out the windows we may as well make crazy guesses.
  • JHawkInc
    JHawkInc Posts: 2,601 Chairperson of the Boards
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    2 weeks after CP store closes 3/23
    Sinister's store didn't end until Tuesday. Thus he entered LTs two weeks later, on a Tuesday.

    I've never bothered tracking who enters on a Monday vs a Tuesday, but the shift between the two days has been pretty normal as far as I remember, all depending on when the store closes. I think Monday is more common, but Tuesday hasn't been out of the question, either. It's at least common enough I wouldn't consider it a deviation from normal.

    I think the confusion with Sinister has more to do with the general uncertainty due to the lack of overall communication more than anything else, because the pattern has held true so far.

    The real question, then, is that if Havok's store closes Monday night at Midnight (eastern US), does that count as closing on Monday for him to roll into LTs on a Monday (two weeks later) or does it count as lasting through Monday to close on Tuesday, so he'll roll into LTs on a Tuesday? (since he'll roll into tokens in the early AM, either way it'll be a few hours before or after the "exact" two week marker, but I haven't tracked past releases close enough to guess which way it's more likely to lean)

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