Latest Token or Classic Token needs to give more shards

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  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards

    That sounds like someone told him that about a third wouldn't receive a 5* BH and he transcribed it as "about 33%", which implies a higher accuracy.

    It is pretty easy to calculate the probability of not receiving a bonus hero in 167though:

    >>> p = 0.15 * 0.05
>>> (1 - p) ** 167
0.2844435417820726

    To keep that in perspective, we can also calculate the probability of receiving exactly one 5* BH in 167 pulls:

    >>> 167 * p * (1 - p) ** 166
0.35895771897435347

    That means the remaining 36% would receive multiple 5* BH covers. In other words, more people would receive 2+ covers over 167 pulls than the number of people who received 0 covers.

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