Spark Drop Rates

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Comments

  • Theros
    Theros Posts: 490 Mover and Shaker
    Volrak said:
    Boogeyman said:
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  
    Your result certainly sucks, but what you describe is completely consistent with the published drop rates.

    The chance of opening 1 or fewer mythics fom 9 PPs is 17%.  What happened to you is designed to happen, and will happen over the long run, to 1 in 6 people.  We might think it couldn't possibly happen to us, buy why not?  1 in 6 mtgpq players, even only those opening 9 PPs, is a whole lot of people.


    There are some inconsistencies with the PPs. But first let look at the following published rates  for WAR PPs :
    rare 74.86%
    mythic 30.29%

    The drop rate on the rares is misleading and needs to be reworded clearly even if it is working as intended.
    The info says "This pack includes 1 guaranteed Rare card". This phrase is where the confusion/misunderstanding lies.
    Someone not familiar with the game would expect 1 guaranteed rare and 74.86% of another rare.
    As is turns out, the 74.86% is in reality the guaranteed rare. @Boogeyman opened 9 PPs and got 9 rares which were guaranteed. Someone unfamiliar with the game would expect 9+ rares. 
    By logic, it should be possible to get a PP with no rare in case you fail out of  the 74.84% curve but this never happens.
    So much dichotomy in here.
    For consistency they have to remove "this pack includes 1 guaranteed rare..." from the PPs to make things clear. Otherwise, if 1 rare is guaranteed, they should lower the 74.86% to much lower reflective real value.
    Alternatively, the can add something like "high probability of getting a rare".

    Rates on them PPs are still complicated and hard to understand by most but  some with solid stats like yourself. In a game this is unacceptable; they can do better than that at clearly explaining drop rates to players.

    The way rates are published would make a noob assume around 1 mythic/(3 to 4PPs) in a probability with replacement. This is how I saw the rates early  until I got access to community published rates and understood how the whole thing works.
    Boogeyman's reaction like many is understandable and valid. The rates the way they are misleading for a purpose but working as intended for people who know like yourself.


  • Gunmix25
    Gunmix25 Posts: 1,442 Chairperson of the Boards
    Boogeyman said:
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  

    @Brigby

    Can you please make sure these percentages are right on the spark mythics.  I opened over 9 premium packs (45 packs - 459 cards) and got 1 mythic (no dupes).  Either my luck is terrible or the 30% number is wrong. 

    When M19 came out I went through 27 Premium packs and received only 1 mythic. But in DOM I cleaned house. RIX was painful because I did well but received 11 copies of that flippin' Time pirate mythic in a row. The point is that despite the bad luck, which it does happen, there are times when it favors you too. I completely sympathize and I wish you much better luck in the near future on your draws.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Theros said:
    Someone not familiar with the game would expect 1 guaranteed rare and 74.86% of another rare.
    That expectation would not be a bad one; it would be approximately correct over the long run.
    An even better expectation would be "1 guaranteed rare and a 74.86% chance of one or more other rares".  I.e. excluding the guaranteed rare, 25% of PPs have zero rares, and 75% of PPs have any other number of rares.  (This is what's been observed by people writing down their drops as they go over thousands of packs.)
    Theros said:
    Boogeyman opened 9 PPs and got 9 rares which were guaranteed.
    I couldn't tell whether Boogeyman was really claiming to have opened only the guaranteed rare and no other rare, in each and every one of those 9 packs, and if so whether he was 100% sure about that in a post whose main point wasn't even about the rares (it was about mythic drops).  If so, it would be an exceptional claim (it's a 1:250,000 event) and would require a correspondingly high standard of methodology to be convincing.  (Most people don't actually write down their rare drops from each pack as they go.)
    Theros said:
    they can do better than that at clearly explaining drop rates to players.
    I think you've hit the nail on the head with this.  If expectations were set more clearly, fewer people would be shocked or surprised at the results they got.  (And this lies behind the efforts I sometimes make to try to explain what D3 have not.)
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    I wanted to follow up with the 1600 gold I spent on the latest M20 card set.... I opened 5 premium packs and got ZERO mythics Zero Masterpieces and 6 dupes rares with 6 new rares.... Literally got zero rares except for the guaranteed rare in 3 premium packs..  That's not right...
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2019
    Sorry you're having another unlucky streak.  It's again about a 1 in 6 chance to get no mythics from 5 M20 PPs.
    Pure RNG is unreasoning and arbitrary.  It will always seem cruel and wrong to those with the worst luck.  It's why so many games fiddle their "random" outcomes to put a hard limit on how much bad luck any one person can get.  Capped bad luck also matches typical human expectations of randomness better than actual randomness does.
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2019
    My streak has been equally underwhelming with no Mythics, let alone MP's.

    At this point, now I'm just hoping the rest of any packs I open contain all the Commons and Uncommons I'm missing just so I can open my non-dupe packs I've been hoarding for this expansion. :persevere:
  • mrixl2520
    mrixl2520 Posts: 240 Tile Toppler
    I just want Heart Piercer Bow and the blue guy that finds it. Three 320 packs and I still don't have either!
  • Mburn7
    Mburn7 Posts: 3,427 Chairperson of the Boards
    mrixl2520 said:
    I just want Heart Piercer Bow and the blue guy that finds it. Three 320 packs and I still don't have either!
    Yeah, common and uncommon drops are always weird.  Grip of Desolation was less common than some mythics back in the day.  I always have 5-10 uncommons I want that I never get from packs (like Path of Discovery).  At least with crafting its easy to get them eventually
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Well, luck turned, I now received 2 mythics out of 2 single booster packs... I have learned to be patient in this game I guess.
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2019
    Yeah, 7th  premium pack, now, I think,  but still nary a mythic, let alone a MP... Just need 19 total common and uncommon cards before I feel safe using my non dupe packs... 
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Azerack said:
    Yeah, 7th  premium pack, now, I think,  but still nary a mythic, let alone a MP... Just need 19 total common and uncommon cards before I feel safe using my non dupe packs... 
    I only have legacy non-dupe packs.  You must be talking about the member non-dupe packs right?
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    Boogeyman said:
    Azerack said:
    Yeah, 7th  premium pack, now, I think,  but still nary a mythic, let alone a MP... Just need 19 total common and uncommon cards before I feel safe using my non dupe packs... 
    I only have legacy non-dupe packs.  You must be talking about the member non-dupe packs right?
    And the ones from phlipper, but yeah.
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Azerack said:
    Boogeyman said:
    Azerack said:
    Yeah, 7th  premium pack, now, I think,  but still nary a mythic, let alone a MP... Just need 19 total common and uncommon cards before I feel safe using my non dupe packs... 
    I only have legacy non-dupe packs.  You must be talking about the member non-dupe packs right?
    And the ones from phlipper, but yeah.
    I do not think the latest set is on those.  I guess you could check via the "view cards" link.  Just wanted to make sure you didn't open a legacy pack expecting the latest set in there. 
  • Azerack
    Azerack Posts: 501 Critical Contributor
    edited October 2019
    Boogeyman said:
    Azerack said:
    Boogeyman said:
    Azerack said:
    Yeah, 7th  premium pack, now, I think,  but still nary a mythic, let alone a MP... Just need 19 total common and uncommon cards before I feel safe using my non dupe packs... 
    I only have legacy non-dupe packs.  You must be talking about the member non-dupe packs right?
    And the ones from phlipper, but yeah.
    I do not think the latest set is on those.  I guess you could check via the "view cards" link.  Just wanted to make sure you didn't open a legacy pack expecting the latest set in there. 
    Honestly, it doesn't matter... 

    I do check the cards to make sure what I'm getting, BUT, the booster pack sections are conveniently labeled "Standard Boosters", "Legacy Bundle" and "VIP Content" in the Vault section, so I know which are which. ;)
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Update on drops from the latest pack.  So, I got 1st in the event and top 11 in the group event.  Counting the individual rewards, I have 5 packs to open.  I got:

    All commons and uncommons (25/25).  No rare dupes or anything.... Drop rate was supposed to be around 25% I believe, for at least a rare.  

  • IM_CARLOS
    IM_CARLOS Posts: 640 Critical Contributor
    In exchange they raise Greg's luck to cascade gems. I lost two games in last event because of first turn GR.
    At least I only lost 3 jewels in rewards and some booster... 
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,673 Chairperson of the Boards
    @IM_CARLOS - I experienced a round earlier today where Greg matched 3 gems and it resulted in a cascade of 11 matches in a row including a match5, followed by another match5 and finally ending with a match that resulted in 2 matches for a total of 14 matches.

    can’t say it is more than a fluke but I sure was in disbelief.
  • Narcoticsagent
    Narcoticsagent Posts: 203 Tile Toppler
    Tremayne said:
    @IM_CARLOS - I experienced a round earlier today where Greg matched 3 gems and it resulted in a cascade of 11 matches in a row including a match5, followed by another match5 and finally ending with a match that resulted in 2 matches for a total of 14 matches.

    can’t say it is more than a fluke but I sure was in disbelief.
    I dont normally think theres anything wrong with the RNG in this game but last dragon war really made me wonder. I played against angrath in the bolas node and he cascaded into his ultimate on turn 2 which since it was the bolas node meant I didnt get to draw cards. That's bad but what really blew my mind is that he cascaded into his ultimate 3 more turns in a row after that. I ended the match having only drawn a total of 4 cards. 

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