Spark Drop Rates

Boogeyman
Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
in MtGPQ General Discussion
Anyone else having terrible drops rates on the spark set?  

I opened 3 Premium (5 packs) and got zero mythics and 1 new rare.  2 rare dupes.....  

What in the world...
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Comments

  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    That was the first time I bought any sparks sets BTW..  Other than the free ones
  • Tremayne
    Tremayne Posts: 1,673 Chairperson of the Boards
    Sorry to hear you have bad RNG on sparks. It is so frustrating when it happens.

    Sparks have been one of the better sets for me (and I have had abysmal pulls on other sets, if I recall correctly, I had like 1 mythic on my first 11 PP and my second mythic on my 18th PP).

     I hope your RNG will change soon.
  • Bil
    Bil Posts: 831 Critical Contributor
    My pulls were pretty bad in terms of mythics, but i had a bunch of rares ... I'd say that my luck was average on this set.

    However, there a very few mythics accessible in PPs in this set ... Maybe that might have an impact on the frequency of mythic drops despite the numbers ?
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Yeah, I was thinking that.  Another thing is, in the sets I opened, I literally got the same rare as the first set I opened....  Feels bad man.
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    Bil said:
    However, there a very few mythics accessible in PPs in this set ... Maybe that might have an impact on the frequency of mythic drops despite the numbers ?
    There hasn't been any observed data supporting the idea that the reported percentages are wrong, and would become correct if scaled in some way by the number of available cards in that rarity.
  • Snappyturtle
    Snappyturtle Posts: 133 Tile Toppler
    I quit the game once I purchased my second WAR pack and got 2 new uncommons and no new rares. After the botched profile update that took a card that I had wanted for a long time, this was the final straw. Only came back to check some of the bug threads that I had open. As much as I didn't see the same Ixalan rates on the Ravnica packs, it seems it returned with WAR. But at least the WAR cards had the same turnout as DOM with very decent uncommons. I'd focus on RNA mythics even with the weird Adapt mechanics, the potential combos where sweet. Hope I at least helped one last time.
  • greenmeanie
    greenmeanie Posts: 123 Tile Toppler
    I think it's a good thing that they cut back on the Mythics in War.  Mythics should be very hard to get. I think they went over board with putting them out in previous sets.  

    If you compare the rare drop rate to paper magic, paper magic has 15 cards per pack and one rare per pack.  Our booster are 5.  By math you should get one rare out of every 3 boosters.  Getting a dupe should be expected. 


  • stikxs
    stikxs Posts: 533 Critical Contributor
    I think my last 2 WAR premium packs and the super pack from daily login have all (65 cards) been common or uncommon.
  • Stalker
    Stalker Posts: 141 Tile Toppler
    greenmeanie said:
    I think it's a good thing that they cut back on the Mythics in War.  Mythics should be very hard to get. I think they went over board with putting them out in previous sets.  

    If you compare the rare drop rate to paper magic, paper magic has 15 cards per pack and one rare per pack.  Our booster are 5.  By math you should get one rare out of every 3 boosters.  Getting a dupe should be expected. 


    Hard comparison. In paper I can go to ebay and get the cards I want. Which shows people like playing with the cards they want, not the cards they are lucky enough to pull. Ebay, trading, selling etc is a part of paper.
  • Bil
    Bil Posts: 831 Critical Contributor
    edited July 2019
    greenmeanie said:
    I think it's a good thing that they cut back on the Mythics in War.  Mythics should be very hard to get. I think they went over board with putting them out in previous sets.  

    If you compare the rare drop rate to paper magic, paper magic has 15 cards per pack and one rare per pack.  Our booster are 5.  By math you should get one rare out of every 3 boosters.  Getting a dupe should be expected. 


     Do you mean that because we already get less cards than we should in boosters, we should have also lower droprates ..?

      As a sidenote we hardly get a rare per 3-boosters on mtgp ... We're far from it. Not to mention the fact that technically, a 5-cards booster here is worth more real cash than a paper 15 cards one ...

      If you really need comparison after that, then you should compare to Arena ... Which is the real virtual MTG product ... Where boosters cost about 1- 1.5 dollars have 7 cards and a guaranteed rare ...
  • SolRing
    SolRing Posts: 21 Just Dropped In
    War set has not been good to me since the very first few packs when it came out.

    Maybe part of the xtra dupes problem is a huge chunk of the set is broken out into vanguard packs.
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  

    @Brigby

    Can you please make sure these percentages are right on the spark mythics.  I opened over 9 premium packs (45 packs - 459 cards) and got 1 mythic (no dupes).  Either my luck is terrible or the 30% number is wrong. 

  • Stalker
    Stalker Posts: 141 Tile Toppler
    Boogeyman said:
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  

    @Brigby

    Can you please make sure these percentages are right on the spark mythics.  I opened over 9 premium packs (45 packs - 459 cards) and got 1 mythic (no dupes).  Either my luck is terrible or the 30% number is wrong. 

    Best part of legal gambling is that the fines are a pittance compared to the profits yielded by the out of compliance machines. And mobile gaming is not under that umbrella. 
    T:L;D:R. You’re wasting your time
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Volrak said:
    Boogeyman said:
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  
    Your result certainly sucks, but what you describe is completely consistent with the published drop rates.

    The chance of opening 1 or fewer mythics fom 9 PPs is 17%.  What happened to you is designed to happen, and will happen over the long run, to 1 in 6 people.  We might think it couldn't possibly happen to us, buy why not?  1 in 6 mtgpq players, even only those opening 9 PPs, is a whole lot of people.


    Volrak, 

    Now do it for 456 cards...  
  • Narcoticsagent
    Narcoticsagent Posts: 203 Tile Toppler
    Boogeyman said:
    Volrak said:
    Boogeyman said:
    Guys, I literally spend 3000 gold and opened 9 premium packs today....

    1 mythic (no dupes)... 2 new rares(7 dupes)....  That's it.  I still have commons and uncommons that haven't dropped. 

    The mythic percentages are NOT RIGHT.  
    Your result certainly sucks, but what you describe is completely consistent with the published drop rates.

    The chance of opening 1 or fewer mythics fom 9 PPs is 17%.  What happened to you is designed to happen, and will happen over the long run, to 1 in 6 people.  We might think it couldn't possibly happen to us, buy why not?  1 in 6 mtgpq players, even only those opening 9 PPs, is a whole lot of people.


    Volrak, 

    Now do it for 456 cards...  
    Boogeyman, your first post said you opened 9 PP.  You did the math as 9 PP = 45 packs which = 459 card 450 from boosters and 9 rares. The problem here and maybe some confusion is that each booster has 5 cards not 10. So with 9 PP you opened 225 cards and 9 guaranteed rares.
  • Narcoticsagent
    Narcoticsagent Posts: 203 Tile Toppler
    Ok I have a question for Volrak. Why are 2 mythics more likely than 4 mythics?
  • Boogeyman
    Boogeyman Posts: 223 Tile Toppler
    Narcoticsagent said:
    The problem here and maybe some confusion is that each booster has 5 cards not 10. So with 9 PP you opened 225 cards and 9 guaranteed rares.
     The math... it hurts. 
  • Volrak
    Volrak Posts: 732 Critical Contributor
    edited July 2019
    Narcoticsagent said:
    Ok I have a question for Volrak. Why are 2 mythics more likely than 4 mythics?
    It's hard to give a more satisfactory answer to the "why" question than "because that's the way the maths works out".  There's not really any deep underlying reason.
    You can use either simulation or combinatorics to check that it's true.
    With the simulation approach you generate random rarities for 225 cards according to the published drop rates and count how many mythics there were.  Then do it again thousands or millions of times and add up how many times you got each number of mythics, and divide those numbers by how many times you ran the simulation.
    With the combinatorics approach you figure out and calculate a mathematical expression for each number of mythics.  E.g. the chance of 0 mythics is (1 - chance of mythic drop per card)^(num cards), or in this case (1 - 0.0143)^225, which gives around 4% (which is hopefully the same as you got from the simulation, if you did it right!).  Expressions for 1, 2, or more mythics are more complicated and involve binomials.  
    Either way tells us the chance of each number of mythics dropping, and that's when we find that the number for 2 is bigger than the number for 4.  (Because that's the way the maths works out.)
  • Mburn7
    Mburn7 Posts: 3,427 Chairperson of the Boards
    @Volrak I always love your analysis.  I don't always understand it, but I love seeing it.

    Thanks for always popping in with pretty graphs and math!

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