A Tale of Two RNG's

ZeroKarma

I confess to not having played the game quite so much of late, and I've posted even less. However, this morning an ally mate of mine shared something in chat that furthered my lack of desire to play. 

The grind has gotten to me more than anything else, and I went from a T2 PvE player to not bothering overnight when I realized how much better that time could be spent. But I still follow the meta and what characters can bring to an otherwise stale format. 

So it was shared that you can boost 2 green, and with the help of a couple of supports.....fire 5* Thor green without ever making a match. 

Wow. How incredibly simple, and probably the best way to make sure you never have to spend time grinding! Just click green and maybe have Thanos in your lineup and voila. I like it!!!!

My friend got these supports while whaling a vault. So I did it too!!!!

And I got some purple tokens!!!!!!

And they were all 3* dupes of **** supports that don't do anything. 

You win RNG, you win. 

But I really don't think this is particularly good for the format at all, and god forbid this ever be allowed in PvP. There was already a very narrowly defined strategy for winning in PvE, revolving around, at best 5 characters that you should BH and try your best to obtain at high levels. Making it so that one of the paths to success is getting supports that are not readily available, can't be targeted in any way, and cost a princely sum to get makes a bad situation worse. 

JackTenrec

My takeaway here is that competitive PvE is ridiculous, but I suppose RNG also plays a pretty big role in getting those 5* Thor covers even before the supports come into play.

Bowgentle

JackTenrec said:

My takeaway here is that competitive PvE is ridiculous, but I suppose RNG also plays a pretty big role in getting those 5* Thor covers even before the supports come into play.

Every t10 player in cl9 has virtually all the 5s champed, that doesn't figure into this.

bbigler

So.......you don't like the PVE grind, but you want some great supports to make it even faster?  Your decision to whale the vault to get these high level supports for Green AP appears impulsive and not well thought out.  Did you consider the odds?  Let's say your whaling got you 3 Master Tokens + 6 Advanced Tokens + 12 Beginner Tokens.  The combined odds of pulling a 4* support from those tokens is 100% + 60% + 24% = 184%, which means that you should get 1-2 x 4*Supports.  The combined odds of getting just 1 x 5* support is 21%.  So, let's say you get 2 x 4* supports, but what are the odds that those supports are the ones you want?  Yaro Root and Cull Obsidian can give Green AP at Battle Start, which is 2 out of 16 supports.  Your odds of getting 1 of them with your 2 x 4* supports is 2 x 12.5% = 25%.  So, your expectations were unrealistic despite what your friend had gotten.  Plus, even if you got lucky enough to get 1 of those green producing supports, there's only a 62% - 67% chance to get 3 - 5 Green AP at Battle Start. 

Feel free to dream though about the day when you can start the battle with 12 Green AP and fire off Thor's AOE.  Better yet, dream of Cable firing off his Green Nuke and then triggering 5*Thanos on the 1st turn. In a previous thread of mine entitled "The great potential of supports" I pointed out these "broken" combos that could exist with the best supports and characters.  But getting to that point will not be easy or cheap.  Right now we could combine Yaro Root & Atlantis & Hope Summers to have a very good chance of starting with 10-12 Green AP.  Add in a 2 Green AP boost, and you're practically guaranteed to start with 12+ Green. 

But if you reach that point of speed nirvana, then you're just playing a tapping game. 

bluewolf

A couple points...the free green isn't a slam dunk.  It's at best 80% chance per support (if you have Atlantis and Yaro Root at Rank 5 and spend 619,000 riso on each one to max them out).  So you'd have about a 64% chance to start with 10 AP, or....I'm not sure of the probability you'd end up gaining 5 with two 80% chances.

Anyway, odds are not good that many players will have both of these.  But certainly they could be a major advantage if they do.

If they allow them, what happens in PVP?  Now, everyone says - Offense only.  And I agree.  But that still changes things a fair amount.  If you could run Supports in PVP, your power level could be a bit higher than your roster.  You can get match damage boosts and other tweaks that make your team climb faster or retal faster.

Now I know many high end PVP players coordinate for points and maybe they aren't worried, but I can imagine that the expected results of play would be shaken up a fair amount even if Supports came as offense-only in PVP, and players might not be that happy about it.

So if you're playing and you hit a weak looking team with awesome Supports, you may still easily win, but they could turn around and retal quickly or unexpectedly and throw off your expected points gains.  

That said, it would open up competitive teams a bit and so it's a double edged sword.  I was just wondering if anyone else had spent time considering what happens.

broll

JackTenrec said:

My takeaway here is that competitive PvE is ridiculous, but I suppose RNG also plays a pretty big role in getting those 5* Thor covers even before the supports come into play.

All competitive aspects of this game are ridiculous.  They revolve around scheduling your time to match the games time and/or knowing the secret and obscure secrets/collaborating with others outside the game.

But whatever, my caring about this game meter is at an all time low right now so I guess it's whatever.  You like the game/current direction or you don't.  I fall further to the later by the minute.

fmftint

Basically irrelevant now, Atlantis store is now closed and only the devs kind when this support will ever become available. Soonest would be the next support circuit (11 days) or possibly if Magik gets a accompanying support with her release

ZeroKarma

bbigler said:

So.......you don't like the PVE grind, but you want some great supports to make it even faster?  Your decision to whale the vault to get these high level supports for Green AP appears impulsive and not well thought out.  Did you consider the odds?  Let's say your whaling got you 3 Master Tokens + 6 Advanced Tokens + 12 Beginner Tokens.  The combined odds of pulling a 4* support from those tokens is 100% + 60% + 24% = 184%, which means that you should get 1-2 x 4*Supports.  The combined odds of getting just 1 x 5* support is 21%.  So, let's say you get 2 x 4* supports, but what are the odds that those supports are the ones you want?  Yaro Root and Cull Obsidian can give Green AP at Battle Start, which is 2 out of 16 supports.  Your odds of getting 1 of them with your 2 x 4* supports is 2 x 12.5% = 25%.  So, your expectations were unrealistic despite what your friend had gotten.  Plus, even if you got lucky enough to get 1 of those green producing supports, there's only a 62% - 67% chance to get 3 - 5 Green AP at Battle Start. 

Feel free to dream though about the day when you can start the battle with 12 Green AP and fire off Thor's AOE.  Better yet, dream of Cable firing off his Green Nuke and then triggering 5*Thanos on the 1st turn. In a previous thread of mine entitled "The great potential of supports" I pointed out these "broken" combos that could exist with the best supports and characters.  But getting to that point will not be easy or cheap.  Right now we could combine Yaro Root & Atlantis & Hope Summers to have a very good chance of starting with 10-12 Green AP.  Add in a 2 Green AP boost, and you're practically guaranteed to start with 12+ Green. 

But if you reach that point of speed nirvana, then you're just playing a tapping game. 

Technically, I wouldn't mind the grind if it was for 15 minutes a day rather than an hour. That won't happen even with this support, but theoretically shorter grind is better than longer grind to most except for those in the adult film industry. 

As I mentioned, I have a foot out the door anyways. Using HP on this vault vs. another vault doesn't much matter except to illustrate that two people can spend $100 worth of HP and one can get trash while the other can grab the new meta. That's a lot of money for nothing of value except a spin of the wheel. It's a problem in this game with 5* covers as well as supports and is a problem in other games as well. Type in MSF and red stars to see an eerily similar issue. 

The value proposition of spending in MPQ used to be such that spending some money could give you at least the illusion of roster progress. It doesn't even do that anymore unless you buy one of the bundles (mostly for champ levels at the vet level). Now, if you want to get in the game you need to hoard for a year of your life or spend several thousand dollars with 20 of your best friends. THEN you have to hope that the shiny that you get isn't nerfed after they stop making D3 money. 

It's why this game is losing players, up to and including the folks that hoarded for a year, played with 550's for a month, and then realized that they had another year to wait until they got a character that would ever be useful to them again. 

bbigler

Just for the record, the game shows the level 5 perk for Yaro Root, Atlantis and Hope Summers to all be 80% at 6 Green AP, not 5 AP. It's probably 5 AP at level 4, but someone who has it in game could correct me if I'm wrong. 

Also, to correct myself and others, I just looked up the math for combined probabilities and learned something new: The probability of 2 out of 3 supports giving 6 Green AP is not 64%. It's calculated by adding up the probabilities for all desired outcomes, which means that any 1 of the 3 supports doesn't have to fire. So, we add the probability of supports 1 & 2 firing, then 2 & 3, then 1 & 3. The probability of supports 1 & 2 firing, but not 3, is 80% × 80% × 20% = 12.8%. This is the same probability of 2 & 3 or 1 & 3 firing, so the combined probability is 38.4%. But don't freak out......the probability of all 3 firing is 80% × 80% × 80% = 51.2%. So, the probability of getting 12+ Green AP at start is 38.4% + 51.2% = 89.6%! Those are great odds (but 12 Green is not guaranteed every battle).  Here's the complete breakdown:

0 supports firing = 0.8%
1 support firing  = 9.6%
2 supports firing = 38.4%
3 supports firing = 51.2%

bbigler

This may just be semantics, but for LL pulls, the stated odds are 1:7 which we interpret as 15%. So, most people think the probability of getting 1 x 5* cover in 7 pulls is 15% × 7 = 105%, meaning that you should get one. But if I calculate the probability of all possible outcomes in 7 pulls, I get this:

0 x 5*s = 32.06%
1 x 5*s = 39.60%
2 x 5*s = 20.97%
3 x 5*s = 6.17%
4 x 5*s = 1.09%
5 x 5*s = 0.12%
6 x 5*s = 0.007%
7 x 5*s = 0.0002%

So, the probability of getting at least one 5* cover in 7 pulls is about 68%. In 10 pulls, it's 80% and in 20 pulls it's 96%. Keep in mind that it will never hit 100%. With an infinite number of pulls, it approaches 1 cover out of 6.66 pulls. I'm not sure what my point is, but I thought this would help set proper expectations. 

HoundofShadow

It's 5 ap if it's not Rank 5 for those that gives 6ap at the start of the battle.

Master Support tokens used to give a minimum of guaranteed Rank 4. When the devs decided to make support "widely available", they changed it to give a minimum of guaranteed Rank 3 instead. They did add in odds to give Master Support in Advance token though.
I expected that the devs will take something away when Brigby mentioned that they are working on making Support more available.

Since you are not playing much anyway, use 250cp to buy the support bundle, which includes 2 Master Support tokens.

The rockett

Hey Zero why you talking about me and my video I shared, LOL.  I have been tracking my 0 move kills and it is insane.  Just for the 4E in HOD, I have 3-0 move kills, so this took me less than 1 min on this node.  I could care less about the amount of health packs I use or buy since I am a top 5 PVE player in SL9....unless I get too darn cute like I did this event. It just amazes me that the thought of this was a good idea to release and not think on how this will interact.  Even if I get one of these supports to fire in boost 2 Green AP, it is one green match and its over, or retreat and try again cause it saves that much time.  I am, and many others, are still trying to see what the end game with these 2 supports will be and how this will be against Thanos RG and GOTG for our clears and grinds.  More to come. 

fmftint

I also have both of these supports and have been playing shield training matches throughout the day to track trigger rates.

I have Yaro Root R4 level 200, 66.9% chance to start with 5 green and
Atlantis R3 level 150, 54% chance to start with 5 green

I've tracked 161 matches so far with the following results

Double trigger 56:161, 34.7%
Single trigger 80:161, 49.6%
No trigger 25:161, 15.5%

bluewolf

@The rockett

I have wondered a few times in the past “Has the game jumped the shark?”

I think it finally has. 0 turn wins. 

bbigler

bluewolf said:

@The rockett

I have wondered a few times in the past “Has the game jumped the shark?”

I think it finally has. 0 turn wins. 

Perhaps reaching the end of the game means that it has become a tapping fest with no skill or strategy required. At that point, why even play?

helix72

fmftint said:

I also have both of these supports and have been playing shield training matches throughout the day to track trigger rates.

I have Yaro Root R4 level 200, 66.9% chance to start with 5 green and
Atlantis R3 level 150, 54% chance to start with 5 green

I've tracked 161 matches so far with the following results

Double trigger 56:161, 34.7%
Single trigger 80:161, 49.6%
No trigger 25:161, 15.5%

Well then, you're right in line with expectations. Based on the percentages, you should expect:

Double trigger: 36.1%
Single trigger: 48.6%
No trigger: 15.2%

I'm actually surprised it's so close to expected after only 161 tries.

bbigler

OJSP said:

bbigler said:
Perhaps reaching the end of the game means that it has become a tapping fest with no skill or strategy required. At that point, why even play?

Is that a question for the player or the developers? Perhaps we should ask the developers why such a possibility even existed? If a player can win that fast, I don't blame the player for being able to do that.

I do blame the devs. They should know the capabilities of all characters and supports so that if they create the possibility of 0 turn wins, they can't expect that players won't figure it out. I'm guessing that they want to give top players the ability to speed through PVE so that they don't get burned out from the grind. Plus, they give everyone a carrot to chase after.  But I think they intend PVP to stay the same. 

If they enabled offensive supports in PVP, it would throw off the delicate balance of MMR. Imagine if every person you attacked could easily retaliate because of offensive supports.  If they enabled supports on both sides, players would complain about harder battles despite having their own supports to use. Plus, we would have a problem of constantly moving supports between our best PVP and PVE teams (unless it's the same 2-person team, like Thorkoye or Gritty).

EDIT: the good thing about these AP producing supports is that they make slower-but-powerful characters a viable option. Cable is a good example. Starting with a bunch of green or yellow makes him playable. If Loki could put down his fortified green repeater on the 1st turn, he would be playable. 5* Widow has good attacks, they're just expensive. Get the 6 purple and 6 black supports to help. That also works with Goblin. Supports could make any character good, but of course, people will chase supports that make their best teams even better (which is what the OP was trying to do). 

Bowgentle

I was wondering why Zero posts wuthout rockett.
I should have known he'd make an appearance lol.

Get ready for a nerf, then.

But hey, these are the same devs who keep showing the season gems at level 5 for the preview, despite CL 10 still "coming soon" after all these years.
You can't expect them to Playtest supports, it's such... Work.

KGB

bbigler said:

bluewolf said:

@The rockett

I have wondered a few times in the past “Has the game jumped the shark?”

I think it finally has. 0 turn wins. 

Perhaps reaching the end of the game means that it has become a tapping fest with no skill or strategy required. At that point, why even play?

Actually this just tells me that SCL 10 is going to go back to using Roster Based Scaling. Nothing like a few L500+ Muscles  and Sentry Fighters with 100K health to slow down those 0 turns wins

KGB

bbigler

KGB said:

bbigler said:

bluewolf said:

@The rockett

I have wondered a few times in the past “Has the game jumped the shark?”

I think it finally has. 0 turn wins. 

Perhaps reaching the end of the game means that it has become a tapping fest with no skill or strategy required. At that point, why even play?

Actually this just tells me that SCL 10 is going to go back to using Roster Based Scaling. Nothing like a few L500+ Muscles  and Sentry Fighters with 100K health to slow down those 0 turns wins

KGB

Unless SCL 10 rewards are crazy good, like 5* covers and such, then people will still drop down to lower SCLs for easy rewards and less time. 

Bowgentle

bbigler said:

KGB said:

bbigler said:

bluewolf said:

@The rockett

I have wondered a few times in the past “Has the game jumped the shark?”

I think it finally has. 0 turn wins. 

Perhaps reaching the end of the game means that it has become a tapping fest with no skill or strategy required. At that point, why even play?

Actually this just tells me that SCL 10 is going to go back to using Roster Based Scaling. Nothing like a few L500+ Muscles  and Sentry Fighters with 100K health to slow down those 0 turns wins

KGB

Unless SCL 10 rewards are crazy good, like 5* covers and such, then people will still drop down to lower SCLs for easy rewards and less time. 

Going by their weird strategy concerning supports, I'm guessing t5 will get support tokens with a miniscule chance for good stuff.
I still think the game will shut down before cl10 is rolled out.