Latest Legends Odds

Bowgentle

Rod5 said:

I think it’s really hard to start claiming unfairness on odds without a significant sample size. I struggle to believe anyone actually went 77 pulls without one, although I recently went probably 30+ without. But then I’ve had maybe 3 in the last 10 and a BH too.

If you earn a lot of CP or hoard for a length of time, I suspect that you’ll start seeing the pulls normalise. I’ve had some shocking streaks but then I’ve had some pretty amazing ones too. The game doesn’t have a streak-breaker per se but odds even out over time I (and basically everyone I know in-game) have found.

It does, but for some people that is a very, very long time.
It might take a few thousand pulls to get near advertised odds - few people except us 5* guys will play for that long.
It takes quite the roster to generate enough pulls to get into that phase.

Daredevil217

Yeah for me it’s one of the unspoken benefits of hoarding. I’m reading @ThaRoadWarrior’sthread where he’s pulling as he goes, and he hits these lengthy 4* streaks. He scraps and claws for another pull. Another 4. At least when you open hundreds at once, that bad feeling is still bad, pulling below odds still sucks, but it’s easier to move past it when you hit those make up streaks. It’s demoralizing to hit 20 in a row, scrounge up that CP, say “this will be the one!”, only to get 4* number 21. 

Dogface

I'm at a point where no 4* goes to waste, so even though i'd rather pull a 5* (duh!) every 4* is welcome. So no serious hoarding for me. I had about 20 LT when Kitty entered and it took a lot of self-discipline to get to 20. Kitty is almost out of Latest and i still only have 1 cover for her.
I think if you're gonna hoard, you must do it hardcore with enough pulls to champ one of the latest or get very far at least. Of course I could have been luckier with my mini hoard but not by much.

tiomono

I would say it's all personal preference. Hoard if you want to avoid certain characters or pull as you go if you dont care to avoid any.

I pulled latests as soon as I earned them and spent my cp every time I hit 25 when kitty entered tokens. I wanted to champ her. She is currently 452. I went back to exclusively using cp on classics as soon as she was covered.

I only play for progression in story mode and usually only aim for 575 points in versus. So I'm not really a casual player but I'm not super competitive either.

 It all comes down to rng. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

Daredevil217

tiomono said:

I would say it's all personal preference. Hoard if you want to avoid certain characters or pull as you go if you dont care to avoid any.

I pulled latests as soon as I earned them and spent my cp every time I hit 25 when kitty entered tokens. I wanted to champ her. She is currently 452. I went back to exclusively using cp on classics as soon as she was covered.

I only play for progression in story mode and usually only aim for 575 points in versus. So I'm not really a casual player but I'm not super competitive either.

 It all comes down to rng. Sometimes you win, sometimes you lose.

I agree on personal preference but avoiding characters is not the only benefit to hoarding. There are several. I might make a separate thread as not to take this one too off topic. 

helix72

That's why I like to combine gradual pulling with hoarding. I'm not in 5* land yet, but using the below strategy I have managed to fully cover almost every 4* character and roster every 5* while still feeling like I'm progressing:

My LT's are held onto until there are 3 new 5*s in the store. Then I draw until I get at least 1 of each, then stop.

For my CPs, I open classics until I get any of the following:

1) A 5* cover
2) A 4* cover for a character/color combination I need (e.g. character is at < 13 total and < 5 in the color drawn)
3) A 4* cover that levels a character to a 5* champ reward
4) A 4* cover that levels a character to a LT champ reward

Then I go back to saving CP until I have 20 more than I did the last time I pulled, and repeat the process. So the last time I drew I started at 720 CP, drew 4 covers before I got a black 5* Green Goblin, and now I'm back up to around 700 CP drawing up to 740 at which point I'll start pulling again.

Everyone eats their Oreos a different way, but in the end, we all consume the same calories. This way floats my boat.

fmftint

Bowgentle said:

Rod5 said:

I think it’s really hard to start claiming unfairness on odds without a significant sample size. I struggle to believe anyone actually went 77 pulls without one, although I recently went probably 30+ without. But then I’ve had maybe 3 in the last 10 and a BH too.

If you earn a lot of CP or hoard for a length of time, I suspect that you’ll start seeing the pulls normalise. I’ve had some shocking streaks but then I’ve had some pretty amazing ones too. The game doesn’t have a streak-breaker per se but odds even out over time I (and basically everyone I know in-game) have found.

It does, but for some people that is a very, very long time.
It might take a few thousand pulls to get near advertised odds - few people except us 5* guys will play for that long.
It takes quite the roster to generate enough pulls to get into that phase.

Thruth, it took me almost 3000 pulls before I FINALLY hit 15%

jym010

I seem to go through cold streaks all the time and then maybe get a couple.  My last streak I went 0-37.  Right now I am on a 0-21.  I am sure once I get one, another one will come shortly after.  I agree that it can be extremely frustrating, especially when I have been drawing specifically to get the new Kingpin for essentials and have not had him on the last 2 events that he has been needed.

guzktgui

guzktgui said:

I know it is just that, the chance of getting a reward, is not a promise, but I just opened 24 LL and got no 5 star... Is this right?

A member of my alliance needed 77 pulls to get one.

What is your experience?

I'll keep counting and update this in case I got a 5 star

I thought I could update my post, but couldn't find how.

I opened around 200 tokens of every kind, the odds were just as they claim or even better. Then went for 6 Latest Legends tokes, no 5 star

I'm down to 30

GrimSkald

My worst ever streak without a 5* was 51 - it actually happened when I was trying to draw JJ (because she's one of my favorite characters,) along with GG (someone who interests me, and I still haven't finished,) out of JJ's introduction.  That clearly represents an outlier, though, as my worst streak otherwise seems to be 31.

Skimming through my log, I see plenty of bad streaks in the low 20s, but high 20s seem pretty rare.  The flip side of that is sometimes you get 3 5*s in a row, I see a few of those too...

bbigler

Odds, odds, odds.....  the chances of getting 2 x 5*s in a row are 2.25% which is close to the odds of getting 23 x 4*s in a row - 2.38%. So, I would say this is bound to happen to everyone who pulls a few hundred LL.

The odds of getting 3 x 5*s in a row are 0.338%, which is very close to the odds of getting 35 x 4*s in a row - 0.339%.

The odds of getting 77 x 4*s in a row are 0.000367%, which is between the odds of getting 6 or 7 x 5*s in a row. So, this is very rare, but not unlikely with our player base. If each player pulled 1000 times, then this streak should happen to 1 out of 20,930 players. 

TheOne

Anything is possible. I just started a small horde between each 5* release so I can be sure to roster at least 1 for the required 5* nodes. My 1st and 2nd pull were 5* Doom. I pulled 8 more just for fun and rest were 4* as expected. 

jamesh

bbigler said:

Odds, odds, odds.....  the chances of getting 2 x 5*s in a row are 2.25% which is close to the odds of getting 23 x 4*s in a row - 2.38%. So, I would say this is bound to happen to everyone who pulls a few hundred LL.

I'm pretty sure the probability of seeing two 5* covers in a row is 15%.  It looks like you've calculated the probability that two specific draws are both 5* covers, when you really want the probability that one draw is a 5* given that the previous draw was a 5* (if the first draw wasn't a 5*, then you haven't begun your streak).  Since all draws are independent, this is just the probability that a single draw will be a 5*.

Quebbster

jamesh said:

bbigler said:

Odds, odds, odds.....  the chances of getting 2 x 5*s in a row are 2.25% which is close to the odds of getting 23 x 4*s in a row - 2.38%. So, I would say this is bound to happen to everyone who pulls a few hundred LL.

I'm pretty sure the probability of seeing two 5* covers in a row is 15%.  It looks like you've calculated the probability that two specific draws are both 5* covers, when you really want the probability that one draw is a 5* given that the previous draw was a 5* (if the first draw wasn't a 5*, then you haven't begun your streak).  Since all draws are independent, this is just the probability that a single draw will be a 5*.

Depends a bit on your view. The chance of two consecutive pulls both being fivestars is indeed 2,25%. You need to get the first fivestar Before you can get a second one after all. This is a relevant metric for special stores where you have a limited number of pulls.

jamesh

Quebbster said:

jamesh said:

bbigler said:

Odds, odds, odds.....  the chances of getting 2 x 5*s in a row are 2.25% which is close to the odds of getting 23 x 4*s in a row - 2.38%. So, I would say this is bound to happen to everyone who pulls a few hundred LL.

I'm pretty sure the probability of seeing two 5* covers in a row is 15%.  It looks like you've calculated the probability that two specific draws are both 5* covers, when you really want the probability that one draw is a 5* given that the previous draw was a 5* (if the first draw wasn't a 5*, then you haven't begun your streak).  Since all draws are independent, this is just the probability that a single draw will be a 5*.

Depends a bit on your view. The chance of two consecutive pulls both being fivestars is indeed 2,25%. You need to get the first fivestar Before you can get a second one after all. This is a relevant metric for special stores where you have a limited number of pulls.

Right, but that isn't a particularly useful number for this kind of argument.  The 2.25% figure only represents the probability of seeing a two 5* streak if the player pulls exactly two legendary tokens.

If we move up to three tokens, the chance of seeing a streak of two or more 5* covers is about 4.16% (i.e. 554, 455, or 555).  As you pull more and more tokens, the probability is going to increase.

If you're looking at probabilities of seeing certain streak lengths without defining the total number of pulls, the only sensible way to analyse it is to assume the first occurrence in the streak actually happened.

jym010

jym010 said:

I seem to go through cold streaks all the time and then maybe get a couple.  My last streak I went 0-37.  Right now I am on a 0-21.  I am sure once I get one, another one will come shortly after.  I agree that it can be extremely frustrating, especially when I have been drawing specifically to get the new Kingpin for essentials and have not had him on the last 2 events that he has been needed.

**Update**
Broke my streak with a Doom pul yesterday

bbigler

@jamesh has a good point. Since the streak is allowed to happen anywhere within hundreds of pulls, the odds of the first pull can almost be ignored. But the point of all this is that the odds of getting 4* streaks are pretty high, so don't complain when it happens to you and say the game is broken. Even streaks of 50 x 4*s is not unlikely with a large player base.