Latest Legends Odds

guzktgui
guzktgui Posts: 35 Just Dropped In
in MPQ General Discussion
I know it is just that, the chance of getting a reward, is not a promise, but I just opened 24 LL and got no 5 star... Is this right?

A member of my alliance needed 77 pulls to get one.

What is your experience?

I'll keep counting and update this in case I got a 5 star
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Comments

  • Warbringa
    Warbringa Posts: 1,299 Chairperson of the Boards
    Well 77 is fairly far outside of standard deviations and while not impossible I would question that claim myself, I would be interested in knowing if this was from multiple stores ie legendary draws plus special 5* store tokens etc.  as opposed to 77 straight draws from the same store etc.  24 draws without a 5* certainly a possibility as I know I have gone that long before without a 5*draw.  Then not long after I drew 3 5* tokens in my next dozen or so draws, tends to come in bursts and then long droughts in my experience.  
  • Dogface
    Dogface Posts: 986 Critical Contributor
    I think i got to around 20 pulls without a 5* in LL. Very frustrating. Even more if you hear other people pulling 5* left and right.

    Concerning your alliance member: 77 pulls without a 5*? I must say that is hard to believe. If true, he or she must be the most unlucky player of MPQ.
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm sorry for your loss.....You have my condolences.....But this does happen to everyone. 

    On a side note, you can spend 500 CP for a guaranteed 5* in the HFH store, but most people here think that's a bad idea. 
  • Warbringa
    Warbringa Posts: 1,299 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2019
    bbigler said:
    I'm sorry for your loss.....You have my condolences.....But this does happen to everyone. 

    On a side note, you can spend 500 CP for a guaranteed 5* in the HFH store, but most people here think that's a bad idea. 
    It is normally a bad deal since it guarantees you a 1 in 20 draw rate over a long-period of time in terms of long-term efficiency.  It is not a bad deal if you are very close to fully covering a character or are dead set on completing one certain character at the expense of other 5* and losing out on 4* covers and rewards or it is a meta defining character etc.  
  • JHawkInc
    JHawkInc Posts: 2,604 Chairperson of the Boards
    It averages out. Since... Okoye entered Latest, I've had multiple runs of 17-20 pulls with no 5's, highest run of 30.

    I've also had several runs where I pulled a 5*, and pulled 5 or 6 5*s across the next 9-10 pulls. (meaning a 50% pull rate)

    Overall, still averaging 15.58% 5* pull rate. Which is better than the advertised rate.

    Bummer to have those bad stretches, but in the long run, it balances out. Here's to the day RNG swings things back in your favor!
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited January 2019
    Warbringa said:
    bbigler said:
    On a side note, you can spend 500 CP for a guaranteed 5* in the HFH store, but most people here think that's a bad idea. 
    It is a bad deal since it guarantees you a 1 in 20 draw rate over a long-period of time in terms of long-term efficiency.  It is not a bad deal if you are very close to fully covering a character or are dead set on completing one certain character at the expense of other 5* and losing out on 4* covers and rewards or it is a meta defining character etc.  
    Hmmmm.......we currently have a meta defining 5* in Latest that will leave soon, which many people are dead set to complete and they don't care about the other 5*s in the pool, and this one meta 5* could change their entire game making 4* covers useful for farming only........so, yeah, 500 CP to get a useable top tier 5* is worth it.  Otherwise, it's not, IMO. 
    I'm not saying buy HFH all the time, but if you need to complete a meta character, then go for it.
  • dokiy
    dokiy Posts: 238 Tile Toppler
    We need a 5 star only token.
  • KGB
    KGB Posts: 3,189 Chairperson of the Boards
    Warbringa said:
    Well 77 is fairly far outside of standard deviations and while not impossible I would question that claim myself, I would be interested in knowing if this was from multiple stores ie legendary draws plus special 5* store tokens etc.  as opposed to 77 straight draws from the same store etc.  24 draws without a 5* certainly a possibility as I know I have gone that long before without a 5*draw.  Then not long after I drew 3 5* tokens in my next dozen or so draws, tends to come in bursts and then long droughts in my experience.  
    .85^77 = .0000036. That's 3 in a million.

    If there are a million MPQ players who have opened 77 LT's then we would expect roughly 3 of them to have had a streak like this. It's incredibly unlikely for 1 person but across all of MPQ I suspect quite a few people have encountered this issue since there are (or have been) millions of players.

    KGB
  • Kolence
    Kolence Posts: 969 Critical Contributor
    Warbringa said:
    Well 77 is fairly far outside of standard deviations and while not impossible I would question that claim myself, I would be interested in knowing if this was from multiple stores ie legendary draws plus special 5* store tokens etc.  as opposed to 77 straight draws from the same store etc.  24 draws without a 5* certainly a possibility as I know I have gone that long before without a 5*draw.  Then not long after I drew 3 5* tokens in my next dozen or so draws, tends to come in bursts and then long droughts in my experience.  
    Does it matter if the pulls are from different legendary stores, if they all have the same odds (0.15) of hitting a 5* every time you pull? And all are consecutive pulls? Wouldn't you just multiply each separate store odds of hitting zero from however many tries to find the combined total odds?
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,733 Chairperson of the Boards
    Different stores would not change the overall odds.  The game doesn’t have any streakbreaker or anything. 

    Each pull is separate from the last. 

    I wonder how many players who go 0/77 become “former players” around that time....

    My worst remains 0/48.  I’ve also pulled 3 5’s in a row. 
  • Dragon_Nexus
    Dragon_Nexus Posts: 3,701 Chairperson of the Boards
    You can flip a coin 100 times and get heads 100 times in a row. Very unlikely, but it could happen.
    That's just how probability works.
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    Probability says you get close to 1:7 odds when you pull at least 1000 or 10,000 tokens. 

    That's a lot of bad luck, which I have yet to experienced yet, but eventually, in the long run, it gets closer to 1:7.
  • Dogface
    Dogface Posts: 986 Critical Contributor
    0,5^100. Good luck writing that out in full.
  • jamesh
    jamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
    Kolence said:
    Warbringa said:
    Well 77 is fairly far outside of standard deviations and while not impossible I would question that claim myself, I would be interested in knowing if this was from multiple stores ie legendary draws plus special 5* store tokens etc.  as opposed to 77 straight draws from the same store etc.  24 draws without a 5* certainly a possibility as I know I have gone that long before without a 5*draw.  Then not long after I drew 3 5* tokens in my next dozen or so draws, tends to come in bursts and then long droughts in my experience.  
    Does it matter if the pulls are from different legendary stores, if they all have the same odds (0.15) of hitting a 5* every time you pull? And all are consecutive pulls? Wouldn't you just multiply each separate store odds of hitting zero from however many tries to find the combined total odds?
    Pulls from each store are governed by a pseudo random number sequence.  While these sequences are predictable if you have access to the internal state of the PRNG, they should be indistinguishable from uniform random data.
    If knowledge of previous pulls from a store let you predict future pulls, that would indicate that the PRNG was bad/broken.  If we assume they've used a good PRNG, then you are best off assuming that each pull is independent and it doesn't matter which store you decide to draw from.
  • Wonko33
    Wonko33 Posts: 985 Critical Contributor
    edited February 2019
    I got 9 out of 21 a few weeks back

    6 kitty - 2 cables - 1 Kingpin

    stuff happens
  • Juggernaut53
    Juggernaut53 Posts: 1 Just Dropped In
    Lately it's been SUPER bad, and has honestly put a huge damper on the daily grind to get LTs and CPs.

    I can't remember exactly, but I saved up to pull after Loki left the Latest, and ended up having around 35 LT pulls.  I believe I got 4 5*s, which wasn't all that bad.  Since though, I've been pulling every chance I get to try and get KP covers before she leaves and have been doing TERRIBLE.  At one point I know I pulled at least 20 LTs before I got 1 Kingpin!  I'm definitely not even close to the 1:7 chance lately.


  • guzktgui
    guzktgui Posts: 35 Just Dropped In
    bluewolf said:
    Different stores would not change the overall odds.  The game doesn’t have any streakbreaker or anything. 

    Each pull is separate from the last. 

    I wonder how many players who go 0/77 become “former players” around that time....

    My worst remains 0/48.  I’ve also pulled 3 5’s in a row. 
    He is definitely considering quitting, for sure he is not renewing VIP or spending any money
  • Theghouse
    Theghouse Posts: 331 Mover and Shaker
    guzktgui said:

    He is definitely considering quitting, for sure he is not renewing VIP or spending any money
    Most people say that after losing at the casino too.  Until they go back to the casino.   Opening tokens is just playing the odds.  Sometimes, you get on the good side of the odds, most times the bad. 

    If he was spending, and then let's a streak of bad luck influence his decision to stop spending, he's going to pull less tokens and make less progress so things will only seem even worse.  He might as well just quit now.
  • Rod5
    Rod5 Posts: 587 Critical Contributor
    I think it’s really hard to start claiming unfairness on odds without a significant sample size. I struggle to believe anyone actually went 77 pulls without one, although I recently went probably 30+ without. But then I’ve had maybe 3 in the last 10 and a BH too.

    If you earn a lot of CP or hoard for a length of time, I suspect that you’ll start seeing the pulls normalise. I’ve had some shocking streaks but then I’ve had some pretty amazing ones too. The game doesn’t have a streak-breaker per se but odds even out over time I (and basically everyone I know in-game) have found.
  • Nick441234
    Nick441234 Posts: 1,496 Chairperson of the Boards
    I got one 5* in 54 pulls recently. By far my worse result playing this game. 

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