Excessive difficulty to reach 5*

tiomono

Phumade said:

tiomono said:

Phumade said:

It’s definitely true that you can champ a classic in 13 straight pulls.  But idi don’t think you considered that math behind dilution.

assumpitions
6 week cycle = 40 days ( end to make the math easy)
assume 100 pulls yields 15 covers simplified for math

work
this means you 100 classic pulls every cycle to keep up with dilution.  At 20cp a pull you 2000 cp every cycle to keep up with dilution.  Stated another way, unless  your personal daily cp avg is greater than the 5* intro pace, you will ALWAYS fall behind in covering 5*.

so the real implication is this.  The real obstacle to finishing the 5* tier is “whether your roster can generate the cp to keep up with the pace of 5* introduction.

example:
my roster can only generate 40 cp a day.  So in 6 weeks I make 1600 cp or 80 pulls. 80 pulls yields 12 5*.   Even if you assumed all 12 5* were the same character, you’ve actually LOST ground since 13 covers entered the 5* tier.  Each successive cycle will put you even further behind.

So the fundamental difficulty in creating a 5* champ is whether the roster can generate cp faster than anew 5* character would consume it.
(Consume means buy enough pulls to cover a char).

if your goal is to champ every 5* as they are released, then ultimately the only thing that matters is whether your roster can generate or buy more resources at a faster rate than the devs can create content to consume those resources.

For me personally, the only question I ever ask is will this expenditure of resources enable my roster to generate a bigger daily avg.

So are you saying its mathematically impossible to champ a 5* by only using cp to open classics?

did you not read the first line of my response?  If your fundamental goal is to champion all the 5* or be in a position to champ them as they are released, then your choice of tokens is irrelevant.  The only question is whether you can generate enough cp to keep up with the devs production cycle.

In fact,  if your a 40cpe a day roster.  I will guarantee that a 100cpe a day roster will complete the 5* tier faster by just buy latests and new char stores. (assuming that all old chars get rotated though)

In fact a 100 cpe a day roster will generate this.

100 cpe X 40 days = 4000cp every cycle.
4000cp yeilds  160 (25cp pulls)  yielding  24 5* covers.

So in general terms a 100 cpe a day player can reasonable expect 2 full 5* every cycle. (it doesn't matter if its open as you go or hoard for the full 6 weeks.  Its the rate not the amount that really matters in keeping up with the devs.)

by comparison a 40cpe a day player generates this:

40 cpe X 40 days =1600 cp every cycle
1600 cpe yeilds  80pulls (20cp pull) yielding 12 covers.

Assuming the game gliches and gives out covers perfectly.  The 100 cpe a day player is reducing his backlog of 5* by 1 full character each cycle.

The 40 cpe a day player is actually increasing his backlog every cycle.

and I want to point out 1 more important fact.

You could have a god tier roster and be a lazy casual player and only generate 40cpe a day.
and I've seen much smaller rosters easily meet that avg (whether through buying their resources or winning them)

I think you math exploded my brain. And I'm a bit confused. Lol. I was basically asking for dumbed down cliff notes. Too many numbers melts my attention span.

I'm still happy pulling from classics even if it means I would be falling behind. I do not like having 0 chance at pulling some characters. And there is no guarantee that the new character stores will rotate to all characters in classics.

Phumade

tiomono said:

I think you math exploded my brain. And I'm a bit confused. Lol. I was basically asking for dumbed down cliff notes. Too many numbers melts my attention span.

I'm still happy pulling from classics even if it means I would be falling behind. I do not like having 0 chance at pulling some characters. And there is no guarantee that the new character stores will rotate to all characters in classics.

If your okay with falling behind, then feel free to spend your resources as you see fit.  

The simple cliff note version is this.  (take rng out of the equation.  I.e. pretend the devs let you set char pref in your 5* results (i.e. when you get a 5* cover its the exact 5* cover you want.)

1.  The 4* and 5* tiers are open ended.  The devs generally expand those tiers at a set rate every 6 weeks.
      a.  roughly 2 4* every 6 weeks.  
      b.  1 5* every 6 weeks. or 13 covers

2.  To keep up with the devs, you need to generate enough resources to "purchase/win" that new content.
     a.  To get 13 covers out of a classic token, you need to buy approximately 100 pulls.
            i.  100 classic pulls cost 2000cp
            ii  100 Latest Legendary pulls cost 2500cp

If your roster can't consistently generate the min of 2000cp in a 6 week spain,  you are by default FALLING behind.

It doesn't matter where you spend your CPs,  you will always fall behind if you cannot surpass the devs production schedule.

In reality, there are many benefits to pulling classics,  but to reap those benefits,  you need to consistently make moves that increase the productivity of your roster.  (maybe this means investing in farms,  maybe it means investing in dupes so you can compete in PVE faster, LR land, maybe its get 2 5* so I can consistently hit 1200,  etc...)

Loosie

For me I'm pulling classics unless I get a large influx of CP/LTs and there is someone I want in Latest (Okoye). When I get full progression in The Hulk along with the DDQ of the day I ended up with 76 CP so I pulled 3 latest , of course they were all 4s but that's fine as I'm still working on my 4 tier. I'm right in the meat of my 4 tier. In fact in the last week I gained about 4-5 covers for Spider Women and she's now up to 11 covers. (One also got me a Fisk as a favorite so he's also up to 11 covers now)

I have 2 champed, 2 at 11 and a bunch at 10.

I'm still missing 4 4*s but I also went from missing 15 to 4 in about a month.

tiomono

Phumade said:

tiomono said:

I think you math exploded my brain. And I'm a bit confused. Lol. I was basically asking for dumbed down cliff notes. Too many numbers melts my attention span.

I'm still happy pulling from classics even if it means I would be falling behind. I do not like having 0 chance at pulling some characters. And there is no guarantee that the new character stores will rotate to all characters in classics.

If your okay with falling behind, then feel free to spend your resources as you see fit.  

The simple cliff note version is this.  (take rng out of the equation.  I.e. pretend the devs let you set char pref in your 5* results (i.e. when you get a 5* cover its the exact 5* cover you want.)

1.  The 4* and 5* tiers are open ended.  The devs generally expand those tiers at a set rate every 6 weeks.
      a.  roughly 2 4* every 6 weeks.  
      b.  1 5* every 6 weeks. or 13 covers

2.  To keep up with the devs, you need to generate enough resources to "purchase/win" that new content.
     a.  To get 13 covers out of a classic token, you need to buy approximately 100 pulls.
            i.  100 classic pulls cost 2000cp
            ii  100 Latest Legendary pulls cost 2500cp

If your roster can't consistently generate the min of 2000cp in a 6 week spain,  you are by default FALLING behind.

It doesn't matter where you spend your CPs,  you will always fall behind if you cannot surpass the devs production schedule.

In reality, there are many benefits to pulling classics,  but to reap those benefits,  you need to consistently make moves that increase the productivity of your roster.  (maybe this means investing in farms,  maybe it means investing in dupes so you can compete in PVE faster, LR land, maybe its get 2 5* so I can consistently hit 1200,  etc...)

So you need to basically hit 48 cp a day to pretty much break even? And any above that let's you progress faster than the game releases stuff?

Math is my Achilles heel. I cannot say I have tracked my cp over 6 weeks. Maybe I will try a baby hoard to see how I fare. I am pretty sure it's not 48 a day or better though.

Phumade

tiomono said:

So you need to basically hit 48 cp a day to pretty much break even? And any above that let's you progress faster than the game releases stuff?

Math is my Achilles heel. I cannot say I have tracked my cp over 6 weeks. Maybe I will try a baby hoard to see how I fare. I am pretty sure it's not 48 a day or better though.

They release 1 5* char every 6 weeks.

6weeks = 42 days.

100 pulls: yields approximately 15 5* covers. (yes RNG will make this a wide window)
 
100 pulls: costs 2000 cp in the classic store, 2500cp in the latest legends, 2500cp in a new release store.

If your daily Command points income exceeds:  2000cp/42days (You will make progress against the 5* backlog, slowly but surely.)

If your daily Command points income exceeds:  2500cp/42days (You will AUTOMATICALLY make progress against the 5* backlog, by purchasing new release tokens with cp, and using your LT tokens.)

The fact that 20cp tokens draw from all 5* is actually IRRELEVANT because of the following math reasons.

1.  20cp tokens draw randomly from all 5*.
2.  New release stores include 2 older 5* on a RANDOM basis.  (Here you need to understand the scientific standard of random and differentiate the difference between random to you and Random to the developer, vs random to both sides)

Let restate that another way.  Before you knew the other 2 chars in the kitty pryde store.  Did you know who the other 2 chars were? No, you had guesss, but no one knew until the developer decided, and they could have decided anything under the guise of "comic lore"

So conceptually if you need 1 cover to finish off Blackbolt.  Is there any real math difference between pulling classics until you draw the 1 bssm or wait until the devs just "randomly" decide to include bssm in a new release store( maybe a 5* spidey villain)

Anyway the framework is there, feel free to plug in your own numbers.

Daredevil217

Phumade said:

tiomono said:

So you need to basically hit 48 cp a day to pretty much break even? And any above that let's you progress faster than the game releases stuff?

Math is my Achilles heel. I cannot say I have tracked my cp over 6 weeks. Maybe I will try a baby hoard to see how I fare. I am pretty sure it's not 48 a day or better though.

They release 1 5* char every 6 weeks.

6weeks = 42 days.

100 pulls: yields approximately 15 5* covers. (yes RNG will make this a wide window)
 
100 pulls: costs 2000 cp in the classic store, 2500cp in the latest legends, 2500cp in a new release store.

If your daily Command points income exceeds:  2000cp/42days (You will make progress against the 5* backlog, slowly but surely.)

If your daily Command points income exceeds:  2500cp/42days (You will AUTOMATICALLY make progress against the 5* backlog, by purchasing new release tokens with cp, and using your LT tokens.)

The fact that 20cp tokens draw from all 5* is actually IRRELEVANT because of the following math reasons.

1.  20cp tokens draw randomly from all 5*.
2.  New release stores include 2 older 5* on a RANDOM basis.  (Here you need to understand the scientific standard of random and differentiate the difference between random to you and Random to the developer, vs random to both sides)

Let restate that another way.  Before you knew the other 2 chars in the kitty pryde store.  Did you know who the other 2 chars were? No, you had guesss, but no one knew until the developer decided, and they could have decided anything under the guise of "comic lore"

So conceptually if you need 1 cover to finish off Blackbolt.  Is there any real math difference between pulling classics until you draw the 1 bssm or wait until the devs just "randomly" decide to include bssm in a new release store( maybe a 5* spidey villain)

Anyway the framework is there, feel free to plug in your own numbers.

Can I ask how this works with LL pulls versus CP? I have 18 weeks worth of data and twice I only got 9 pulls and twice I got 18. My mean is 14 pulls a week or two pulls a day. I guess you could convert that to CP and say 50 CP a day. Taking that into consideration would that mean I should theoretically be able to “keep up”?

Phumade

Daredevil217 said:

Can I ask how this works with LL pulls versus CP? I have 18 weeks worth of data and twice I only got 9 pulls and twice I got 18. My mean is 14 pulls a week or two pulls a day. I guess you could convert that to CP and say 50 CP a day. Taking that into consideration would that mean I should theoretically be able to “keep up”?

The exact income number is difficult to pin down, because you have farms, feeders, daily rewards, event rewards coming in.  but 50 cp is pretty much in the break even zone.  There are some complications if you end up splitting pulls in classics vs your lt tokens.  but you should value lts at their replacement value.

RNG will play some havoc but if you can consistently earn 50cp+ a day and grow farms slots etc.,  you are very much treading water if not making progresss on the existing backlog.

From my own personal experience.  I achieved 50cp a day during the Natasha black widow release.  I haven't missed a new 5* since, and slowly just worked away at my classic backlog.

I effectively champed and finished all 5* before gambit got released.

smkspy

Too much mathz lol.

Here's what I did as a non-hoarder.

1. Exclusively pulled classics until everyone but the 5-6 newest four star releases were champed. Think I went to 4, but can't really recall.

2. Then switched to Latest. I started when Doc ock was a latest. You'll probably start small those first few 5s going into latest: Ock was 8 covers,  Starlord 8 covers, then 12 for Spidey and Daredevil. From have champed ever new 5 with the exception of JJ that ended up at 12 covers.

3. Play full pve, started out 8 and moved to 9 with first champed 5. Hit at the very least top 100 every event.

4. Each PvP to minimum 575 or best 900. I've never hit 1200, just too much for me personally.

5. Strategy BHing of 3/4s. Targeting champed characters on the border of a LT or high CP reward. BH for a four star isn't a priority unless that 4 champ reward leads to a further LT or high CP reward.

6. Invest in a 3 star farm. Benefit of waiting til the entire 4 tier was champed led to my 3 stars developing faster.

7. Optional: I buy VIP every month and have occasionally bought character bundles.

Today, I have 9 (going on 10) champed 5s without ever once hitting 1200 in a pvp and never hoarded, other mini-hoards (300-400 CP).

EtA: I will say that my method included a number of variables that no longer affect the advancement of roster progression as of the game's current format:

About 10 champed four before vaulting.

The huge benefit of vaulting with both 3s and 4s.

Post Vaulting with 3x multiplier that allowed me to finish previously unfinished vaulted 4s and still rapidly champ newer fours.

Even dilution has worked to my advantage allowing more resources to go into 5s rather than new 4s and saved covers have only improved that.

bluewolf

DAZ0273 said:

As I understand it, all 5* draws are already pre-determined - the odds stated should even out over a certain amount of pulls but this can lead to "streaks" or times when you will have a barren run but it SHOULD equal out to the expected odds over time.

I just wanted to point out that the pulls are predetermined - this was to fix a prior exploit where some players found a way to repeat pulls until they got the desired results (5's).

However:  THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO MAKE SURE YOUR PULL RATE EVER EVENS OUT.  I just updated my pull number ratio.  Over 1950 pulls, I have received 248 5's from various stores etc.  That's a 12.72% pull rate over the past couple years or so.  It has corrected itself at any point.  It is completely random every time.

The pull mechanic only is set up to on average reward 15% of pulls with 5's among all the people making pulls.

A streak breaking mechanic is so desperately needed, but the devs don't really seem to care if players like me get fed up and move on.  

Edit:  I hope my all caps choice is understood to not be directed at any other player, but was used to express my frustration with the devs’ decision to not correct this source of major player frustration.

Bowgentle

bluewolf said:

DAZ0273 said:

As I understand it, all 5* draws are already pre-determined - the odds stated should even out over a certain amount of pulls but this can lead to "streaks" or times when you will have a barren run but it SHOULD equal out to the expected odds over time.

I just wanted to point out that the pulls are predetermined - this was to fix a prior exploit where some players found a way to repeat pulls until they got the desired results (5's).

However:  THERE IS NO MECHANISM TO MAKE SURE YOUR PULL RATE EVER EVENS OUT.  I just updated my pull number ratio.  Over 1950 pulls, I have received 248 5's from various stores etc.  That's a 12.72% pull rate over the past couple years or so.  It has corrected itself at any point.  It is completely random every time.

The pull mechanic only is set up to on average reward 15% of pulls with 5's among all the people making pulls.

A streak breaking mechanic is so desperately needed, but the devs don't really seem to care if players like me get fed up and move on.  

Edit:  I hope my all caps choice is understood to not be directed at any other player, but was used to express my frustration with the devs’ decision to not correct this source of major player frustration.

It does even out - provided you don't spread your pulls across various stores.
Don't do that.
If you do 2000 pills from latest, it WILL even out.