Hey! What happened to the Heroic Token odds?

bbigler
bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
in MPQ General Discussion
Perhaps I missed an announcement, but I just noticed today that Heroic Token odds are
1:16 for 4*s and 1:5 for 3*s................they used to be
1:14 for 4*s and 1:4 for 3*s

I know the odds changed because I wrote down the odds a couple weeks ago and I didn't see any notification about it.  Also, have Standard tokens always been 1:43 for 3*s and 1:8 for 2*s?
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Comments

  • Jaedenkaal
    Jaedenkaal Posts: 3,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    bbigler said:
    Also, have Standard tokens always been 1:43 for 3*s and 1:8 for 2*s?
    Yes, that sounds right.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    The Heroics and PVP tokens are currently showing decreased odds and giving more 2’s.
  • jtmagee
    jtmagee Posts: 158 Tile Toppler
    @Brigby any word?
  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited August 2018
    I can confirm that the odds for 4* PvP tokens odds for 4* went from ~1:11 to ~1:12, based on cross referencing of older posts in June. Cloak and Dagger PvP 4* odds was ~1:11 and 3* was ~1:5.

    If it's a 3* PvP the odds for 4* would be ~1:14 and 3* would be 1:4.

    The odds for standard tokens look right.

    As for Heroic Tokens, it seems to have increased.

    Edit: based on previous posts in Feb this year, Heroic odds for 4* was 1:14. I can't remember what the odds for 3* in heroics was.
  • professorplum9
    professorplum9 Posts: 133 Tile Toppler
    I can confirm. I haven't drawn a single 4* out of the last 130+ heroic tokens I have drawn :wink::cry:
  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    I'm not really upset about the new odds, but I am upset if D3 secretly changed it and didn't want us to notice.
  • Punter1
    Punter1 Posts: 728 Critical Contributor

    Maybe they couldn't handle all the praise after R158 and the increased saved cover count, so they've decreased the odds as the only change in R159 to get back on the usual forum track of complaints. 

    Restore balance to the MPQ world!

  • HoundofShadow
    HoundofShadow Posts: 8,004 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited August 2018
    The percentage for Heroics odds were:

    1) ~71% chance to get a 2-Star
    2) ~23% chance to get a 3-Star
    3) ~6% chance to get a 4-Star

    1/14 is about 7.14%.
    1/16 is about 6.25%.

    In a sense, the odds is now closer to the stated percentage for 4*.  :D

  • bbigler
    bbigler Posts: 2,111 Chairperson of the Boards
    While we're on the topic of HT odds, I've tracked my HT pulls since my restart 77 days ago:

    Out of 204 HT pulls, I've gotten:

    18 x 4*s = 8.8%   (above old average of 7.1%)
    39 x 3*s = 19.1%   (below old average of 25.0%)
    147 x 2*s = 72.1%   (above old average of 67.9%)
    14 x BHs = 24.6%   (way above average of 5%, unless you count all HT pulls, which makes it 6.9%)

    Bottom Line:
    HT odds for 4*s changed from 7.1% to 6.3% and 3*s changed from 25% to 20%.


  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited August 2018
    No one should be opening pvp or Heroic tokens until the devs comment on what’s going on. You are more likely to get 2’s now than before.
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    bluewolf said:
    No one should be opening pvp or Heroic tokens until the devs comment on what’s going on. You are far more likely to get 2’s now than before.

    Eh.
    It's most likely a case of the displayed odds needing to actually reflect the current odds.

    I'm guessing the odds have been like they are displayed now for a while, and they only got around to changing the displayed odds now.
  • The rockett
    The rockett Posts: 2,016 Chairperson of the Boards
    @Brigby @IceIX
    Can you please look into this and update us please. 
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited August 2018
    Bowgentle said:
    bluewolf said:
    No one should be opening pvp or Heroic tokens until the devs comment on what’s going on. You are far more likely to get 2’s now than before.

    Eh.
    It's most likely a case of the displayed odds needing to actually reflect the current odds.

    I'm guessing the odds have been like they are displayed now for a while, and they only got around to changing the displayed odds now.

    The displayed odds have always been, to my understanding, a statement of the actual odds.  Whenever a bug in the store existed, the tokens displayed the true odds, even when they advantaged the players. And in Latest, the weighting showed the correct “4X odds!” once the pool was diluted enough.

    Regardless, without official comment, I would still recommend not opening these tokens unless you really want to get more 2’s.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,101 Chairperson of the Boards
    Clarity on this would be good. Heroics are not a regular source of 4* covers but over time they do produce.

    With the somewhat wishy-washy implementation of 4* PvP (i.e. Event driven only so far and so not really seeing much of an increase) that was supposed to mean "increased odds of getting 4*" not really materialising, another reduction in 4* sources would be a sad blow.
  • bluewolf
    bluewolf Posts: 5,735 Chairperson of the Boards
    You are also apparently getting less 3’s from these tokens. 1:5 instead of 1:4.

    The odds display, if working correctly, is supposed to be automated to reflect the contents of the tokens.

    So this is kind of a big deal, and apparently these odds existed prior to R159, but we don’t know when. Assuming this is not a display bug, we have been getting less 3’s and 4’s from Heroics and PVP tokens for an uncertain length of time.
  • DAZ0273
    DAZ0273 Posts: 10,101 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yeah, only just noticed the reduction on 3* odds.
  • fmftint
    fmftint Posts: 3,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    This might get a faster response in the bug report forum
  • ZeiramMR
    ZeiramMR Posts: 1,357 Chairperson of the Boards
    If the rates on 3 and 4 star characters have dropped, this also means Bonus Heroes are potentially effected. Because the BH percentage is a set percentage which is then reduced by the distribution of 2/3/4 to get to the 5% mark.
  • Vhailorx
    Vhailorx Posts: 6,085 Chairperson of the Boards
    Wow, it's almost like the token odds splash page is trash and should have been fixed ages ago to show actual data, rather than vague approximation. . .

    If only someone had been screaming into the void about this problem since early 2017. . .
  • broll
    broll Posts: 4,732 Chairperson of the Boards
    Benefit of the doubt:
    Maybe they have it setup to dynamically update the odds and this is just more dilution pains manifesting.  I'm too lazy to do the math to see if that makes sense or not.

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