New System means New Plots

Hadronic
Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
in MPQ General Discussion
Hoping the plots are self explanatory. Stats used was 10 million samples.


Building a Single 5* from Latests (Starting at 0/0/0)





Building all Three 5* from Latests  (All Starting at 0/0/0)



I will post more plots in this thread as I make them
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Comments

  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    edited June 2018
    Same Table as above for 4* Characters
    Keep in mind that my code only models finishing the character using token draws. There are many other opportunities in the game to acquire 4* rewards that are not modeled here.

    The character was started with the specific build permutation and 0 covers stored.



    https://docs.google.com/spreadsheets/d/1Jx4p2YF0GeVqzT_OvlMjawp-JlLEfV_FLsvfokhG_Oc/edit#gid=489937712

    Due to the much higher dilution, Bonus Heroes has an even larger impact here.
    For Classic 5* the BH cuts the average pulls in half approximately, but for 4* it reduces it by 80% or more. If you focus on one 4*, the character is built almost entirely out of BH covers.
  • Pr0spect0r
    Pr0spect0r Posts: 291 Mover and Shaker
    Great info but I need a 5 year old explanation of most of this cuz trying to read it my eyes gloss over and brain turned off due to overheating
  • Bowgentle
    Bowgentle Posts: 7,926 Chairperson of the Boards
    Pr0spect0r said:
    Great info but I need a 5 year old explanation of most of this cuz trying to read it my eyes gloss over and brain turned off due to overheating
    I was going to ask for a TL;DR myself, yeah.
  • The rockett
    The rockett Posts: 2,016 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hadronic said:
    A TL;DR version, ok
    • New exchange system is awesome
    • Removal of CS exchanges stinks
    • Changing the exchange rate doesnt have that much of an effect, unless you make it to 2:1 or 1:1
    • Token Dilution stinks
    • Bonus Heroes are awesome
    Now I understand, Thanks.  

    The information you post is awesome. 
  • babinro
    babinro Posts: 771 Critical Contributor
    I have some questions that may or may not be answered within this data.

    If I'm a 5/5/0 build with 5 covers already stored in the saved cover system.  
    How many pulls will I need to hoard to finish this character?

    Same question but with different build variations.  5/5/1, 5/5/2, 3/5/3, 3/5/4.

    To me this is the data that will be most important because I have no reason to change what I've already been doing before until I run into one of the above situations.  Then and only then will I consider hoarding in order to safely complete the character without wasting covers or using the 5:1 trade in.
  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    edited June 2018
    babinro said:
    I have some questions that may or may not be answered within this data.

    If I'm a 5/5/0 build with 5 covers already stored in the saved cover system.  
    How many pulls will I need to hoard to finish this character?

    Same question but with different build variations.  5/5/1, 5/5/2, 3/5/3, 3/5/4.

    To me this is the data that will be most important because I have no reason to change what I've already been doing before until I run into one of the above situations.  Then and only then will I consider hoarding in order to safely complete the character without wasting covers or using the 5:1 trade in.
    Well its partially answered, but you need to give me more info.

    Assuming this 5/5/0 is a 4*
    570 +- 270 without BH
    134 +- 63 if you BH

    Also these stats assumed empty storage. For your character the numbers drop from what is in the table. 

    so perhaps 5/5/1 is a better reference since you closer to it
    396 +- 234 without BH
    93 +- 55 with BH

    Technically you are somewhere in between these two points, but closer to the 5/5/1. Every time a character is added into the token, the numbers increase. The amount they increase is the slope.
  • Asmodaeus
    Asmodaeus Posts: 100 Tile Toppler
    Holy math, Batman! Great job Hadronic, the breakdown really helped clarify the new landscape (once you broke it down to 5yr old lvl for me anyway)
  • Treras
    Treras Posts: 47 Just Dropped In
    So with the new sistem and pulling latest, if you´re lucky, it takes around 80 pulls more to finish a new 5*. Lovely.
    Great analisys Hadronic, i just love me some plots :smile:
  • PorkBelly
    PorkBelly Posts: 535 Critical Contributor
    Hadronic said:
    A TL;DR version, ok
    • New exchange system is awesome
    • Removal of CS exchanges stinks
    • Changing the exchange rate doesnt have that much of an effect, unless you make it to 2:1 or 1:1
    • Token Dilution stinks
    • Bonus Heroes are awesome
    2:1 or 1:1 seems fair for 5* covers.  I'm a day 1635 player who buys VIP and Logan's Loonies when on sale.  My highest level character is 453.  I have used the CS cover swap 3 or 4 times before but never more than once for the same character.  I have sold 4 or 5 unusable covers across all of my 5* characters.  

    A policy that that requires you to accumulate 5 unusable characters in a single 5* character is essentially the same as having no saved cover policy at all for that tier.
  • tiomono
    tiomono Posts: 1,654 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    PorkBelly said:
    Hadronic said:
    A TL;DR version, ok
    • New exchange system is awesome
    • Removal of CS exchanges stinks
    • Changing the exchange rate doesnt have that much of an effect, unless you make it to 2:1 or 1:1
    • Token Dilution stinks
    • Bonus Heroes are awesome
    2:1 or 1:1 seems fair for 5* covers.  I'm a day 1635 player who buys VIP and Logan's Loonies when on sale.  My highest level character is 453.  I have used the CS cover swap 3 or 4 times before but never more than once for the same character.  I have sold 4 or 5 unusable covers across all of my 5* characters.  

    A policy that that requires you to accumulate 5 unusable characters in a single 5* character is essentially the same as having no saved cover policy at all for that tier.
    So if they turned off cover save for 5's but left it in place for 2-4 stars that would essentially be the same as what we are actually getting?

    Stop exaggerating. True they could have been more generous to the players with this change (like the 2 years of cover swaps they offered to players while not having to). For an in game system this works fairly well to address the issue of 6th cover frustration.
  • Daredevil217
    Daredevil217 Posts: 3,967 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited June 2018
    I just hope they don’t listen to people who want to make the exchange rate smaller. I never actually plan to use the bank to exchange covers and instead plan to use it as a storage area while I try to cover characters naturally. The bigger the bank the less waste there. As Hardonic said, 1:3 would be the worst. I say either make it 1:1 for Latests or make the bank bigger if you make any changes at all. I’m scared that people who don’t understand what this actually is are going to ruin it and make it worse. 
  • Pr0spect0r
    Pr0spect0r Posts: 291 Mover and Shaker
    Daredevil217 said:
    I just hope they don’t listen to people who want to make the exchange rate smaller. I never actually plan to use the bank to exchange covers and instead plan to use it as a storage area while I try to cover characters naturally. The bigger the bank the less waste there. As Hardonic said, 1:3 would be the worst. I say either make it 1:1 for Latests or make the bank bigger if you make any changes at all. I’m scared that people who don’t understand what this actually is are going to ruin it and make it worse. 
    no one has ever asked for the bank to be smaller though, just the exchange rate. i think people are just over reading that comment.
  • justsing
    justsing Posts: 510 Critical Contributor
    edited June 2018
    Pr0spect0r said:
    Daredevil217 said:
    I just hope they don’t listen to people who want to make the exchange rate smaller. I never actually plan to use the bank to exchange covers and instead plan to use it as a storage area while I try to cover characters naturally. The bigger the bank the less waste there. As Hardonic said, 1:3 would be the worst. I say either make it 1:1 for Latests or make the bank bigger if you make any changes at all. I’m scared that people who don’t understand what this actually is are going to ruin it and make it worse. 
    no one has ever asked for the bank to be smaller though, just the exchange rate. i think people are just over reading that comment.
    Yes, but given the current setup, the size of the bank is dependent on the exchange rate, so decreasing the exchange rate will probably decrease the size of the bank too. This is something I hadn't considered when making my initial comments, and I wouldn't be surprised if other people hadn't either. 

    I, too, wanted a lower exchange rate before I considered this aspect. I think I would rather have 5:1 with a 5 cover bank instead of 3:1 with a 3 cover bank. I can't see the devs dropping the ratio to 3:1 and still letting us keep a 5 cover bank. 
  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    Made a web version of my code. Its much slower than my local version, so i had to remove some features.

    https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbxN_tv6BD3fVwM3WrYjqnSmmz2k3Aky1ZV-ZXwVKnfLyR9m1Wps/exec
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards

    My Okoye is currently 0/5/0. Without swaps, what are the odds I will be able to champ her without having to use the Saved Cover feature?

    (I am opening as much as I can while swaps are still available. Once swaps stop I will probably hoard for a while since Jessica and Cap are already champed...)

  • Hadronic
    Hadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    Quebbster said:

    My Okoye is currently 0/5/0. Without swaps, what are the odds I will be able to champ her without having to use the Saved Cover feature?

    (I am opening as much as I can while swaps are still available. Once swaps stop I will probably hoard for a while since Jessica and Cap are already champed...)

    Pulls needed to finish Character:
    227.438 +/- 88.098
    Expected number of wasted covers:
    1.353 +/- 2.524
    Expected number of bonus covers:
    1.715 +/- 1.260
    Expected number of exchanges:
    0.000 +/- 0.000
    Probability of no waste:
  • Quebbster
    Quebbster Posts: 8,070 Chairperson of the Boards
    Hadronic said:
    Quebbster said:

    My Okoye is currently 0/5/0. Without swaps, what are the odds I will be able to champ her without having to use the Saved Cover feature?

    (I am opening as much as I can while swaps are still available. Once swaps stop I will probably hoard for a while since Jessica and Cap are already champed...)

    Pulls needed to finish Character:
    227.438 +/- 88.098
    Expected number of wasted covers:
    1.353 +/- 2.524
    Expected number of bonus covers:
    1.715 +/- 1.260
    Expected number of exchanges:
    0.000 +/- 0.000
    Probability of no waste:
    62.450%

    https://script.google.com/macros/s/AKfycbxN_tv6BD3fVwM3WrYjqnSmmz2k3Aky1ZV-ZXwVKnfLyR9m1Wps/exec

    Thanks. Not tempting to dry to do Another 300 pull hoard Before Okoye leaves Latest, TBH... I will need to Think about this.

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