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Silver Lining-Can I Pull My Hoarde With Less ISO?

VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
So 4* dilution is back in fill force.  Can’t say I’m a fan, but there may be a silver lining for me.

i just hit the 300 latest LT pull point for my hoarde, but I have a meager 1.8 mil iso.  Last time I filled a hoarde, I was advised that I should have 4 mil.  I pulled at 3 and had to trash several 4* covers.  Now that I can expect to pull way more champ levels, is the amount of recommended ISO significantly lower?  

As far as my personal roster goes, I have all 4*s champed minus 10.  So seems like champ levels will abound?
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Comments

  • bluewolfbluewolf Posts: 1,653 Chairperson of the Boards
    It’s certainly true that you can basically figure that you will get 5/6 if your 4’s as champ levels (with 10 unchamped), so iso can be less when you start. And the other question is who isn’t champed and would they help much if they were?
  • justsingjustsing Posts: 280 Mover and Shaker
    edited June 9
    Do you have your roster posted anywhere? If you post the cover distribution of the unchamped 10, someone can simulate how many you'd expect to have to champ. 
    ROSTER (as of May 19, 2018)
  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    Easy enough to post the stragglers.  

    Nico 209 3/5/5
    War Machine 4/4/5
    Bucky 165 5/3/4
    Shuri 165 2/3/3
    Valk 152 1/4/2
    Spiderman (IW) 115 1/4/1
    Jubilee 115 1/3/2
    Panther 90 0/1/2
    Widow 90 0/1/2
    Kraven 90 0/1/2

    All other 4*s (aside from Dino and Howard) are champed.


  • JarvindJarvind Posts: 1,677 Chairperson of the Boards
    Why 4 mil specifically? I'm assuming to champ any and all 4*s as well as 5*s that get covered? That seems excessive, honestly. Selling 4* covers isn't the end of the world.

    Do keep in mind that you'll get a buttload of champ levels and probably a SHIELD rank or two with a big hoard, so that will add a bit on to whatever you have stockpiled.
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  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    I believe that was the calculation at the time for how much iso I’d need to avoid wasting covers.  Shield levels helped and champ levels were factored in I think?  If these numbers seem off, then maybe I’m misremembering and it was 3 mil?

    Anyhow, wasting some covers wasn’t the end of the world for me, that’s why I pulled below the recommended amount last time.  But I don’t want to waste a stupid number of covers.

    I guess another question is, is now a good time to pull anyhow?  Sounds like it is, but I’m not fully comprehending the draw of Okoye (I get JJ, Cap sounds meh),  My 5* roster is what I got from my last hoard pull, which was the classic xmas 2016 pull time of DD, Gambit, and GThor.
  • justsingjustsing Posts: 280 Mover and Shaker
    edited June 9
    I ran a quick simulation for 300 pulls. Here are the results based on 100,000 runs:

    Chance of pulling 14th cover – Mean (SD)
    • Nico - 98% (14)
    • War Machine - 98% (14)
    • Bucky - 88% (33)
    • Shuri - 17% (37)
    • Valkyrie - 6% (23)
    • Spiderman (IW) - 2% (15)
    • Jubilee - 3% (17)
    • Panther - 0% (3)
    • Widow - 0% (4)
    • Kraven - 0% (4)

    In terms of unusable 4* covers, if you don't champ Nico, WM, and Bucky, you'll waste an average of 13 covers (sd = 4). Otherwise, if you do champ them, you'll waste an average of 2 covers (sd = 2).



    On average, you'll get 216 champ levels for your other 4*s (sd = 8).

    Number of covers pulled per character - Mean (SD)
    • 4* character - 4 (2)
    • 5* character - 15 (4)

    ROSTER (as of May 19, 2018)
  • DaichesDaiches Posts: 1,252 Chairperson of the Boards
    justsing said:
    I ran a quick simulation for 300 pulls. Here are the results based on 100,000 runs:

    Chance of pulling 14th cover – Mean (SD)
    • Nico - 98% (14)
    • War Machine - 98% (14)
    • Bucky - 88% (33)
    • Shuri - 17% (37)
    • Valkyrie - 6% (23)
    • Spiderman (IW) - 2% (15)
    • Jubilee - 3% (17)
    • Panther - 0% (3)
    • Widow - 0% (4)
    • Kraven - 0% (4)

    In terms of unusable 4* covers, if you don't champ Nico, WM, and Bucky, you'll waste an average of 13 covers (sd = 4). Otherwise, if you do champ them, you'll waste an average of 2 covers (sd = 2).



    On average, you'll get 216 champ levels for your other 4*s (sd = 8).

    Number of covers pulled per character - Mean (SD)
    • 4* character - 4 (2)
    • 5* character - 15 (4)

    Why does Spider-Man get 2% chance or even consideration, when he's currently not in the packs?
    Unless OP is waiting to pull until next season?
  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    Well that’s some fancy math’n.  So if I remember correctly, 5*s are around 500k to champ from scratch apiece.  Nico, War Machine, and Bucky would run me around 800k total to champ.  With my 1.8 mil, rank rwds, champ levels rwds, and maybe some 2* farm liquidation, I should be able to afford all that.  Wasting a few covers after that seems totally fine.

    Now the question returns to, is now a good time to pull?  For reference, I’ve got GThor, Gambit, and DD.  I hear JJ pairs well with GThor, but Cap seems a bit like dead weight.  Would I be better off waiting for Okoye +2?
  • Daredevil217Daredevil217 Posts: 1,417 Chairperson of the Boards
    You could always do what I did and focus solely on Jess. Bonus her, hope RNG is kind, and stop once she’s maxed and try to skip cap. Unless you want to add lots of champ levels in which case Cap is unavoidable and may be anyway depending on luck. 
  • HoundofShadowHoundofShadow Posts: 990 Critical Contributor
    There should be a new character next Thursday. Maybe you would like to wait before you pull?
  • CharlieCrokerCharlieCroker Posts: 194 Tile Toppler
    VizMantis said:
    Well that’s some fancy math’n.  So if I remember correctly, 5*s are around 500k to champ from scratch apiece.  Nico, War Machine, and Bucky would run me around 800k total to champ.  With my 1.8 mil, rank rwds, champ levels rwds, and maybe some 2* farm liquidation, I should be able to afford all that.  Wasting a few covers after that seems totally fine.

    Now the question returns to, is now a good time to pull?  For reference, I’ve got GThor, Gambit, and DD.  I hear JJ pairs well with GThor, but Cap seems a bit like dead weight.  Would I be better off waiting for Okoye +2?
    You could keep your options open wait to see who the next release is and whether they're better than JJ (and Cap).  Two things to weigh against this.

    1. JJ is pretty good and it would be a shame to miss her entirely.  Having said that, unless you could get her to a decent level she's not a game changer in the current meta, although she is fun to use.

    2. If you waited then pulled should the next 5* release be trash, you'd miss out on the fun of having a boosted 5* for PvP.  However a counterpoint to this is you've already missed out on nearly a week of that boost for Okoye anyway.

    Tough decision, but good luck with your pulls whatever you do.
  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    edited June 9
    You could always do what I did and focus solely on Jess. Bonus her, hope RNG is kind, and stop once she’s maxed and try to skip cap. Unless you want to add lots of champ levels in which case Cap is unavoidable and may be anyway depending on luck. 

    On my last hoard pull, I had champed gambit and gthor well before I got DD finished.  So there’s a decent chance I’ll get stuck with cap whether I like it or not.  Even if I do get lucky with JJ, I’ll probably get at least a few caps, which seems like a waste if I’ll never complete him.  But something to consider.  I don’t really care too much about champ levels since I’m just a 575’er in pvp.  
  • PenniesForEveryonePenniesForEveryone Posts: 294 Mover and Shaker
    VizMantis said:
    You could always do what I did and focus solely on Jess. Bonus her, hope RNG is kind, and stop once she’s maxed and try to skip cap. Unless you want to add lots of champ levels in which case Cap is unavoidable and may be anyway depending on luck. 

    On my last hoard pull, I had champed gambit and gthor well before I got DD finished.  So there’s a decent chance I’ll get stuck with cap whether I like it or not.  Even if I do get lucky with JJ, I’ll probably get at least a few caps, which seems like a waste if I’ll never complete him.  But something to consider.  I don’t really care too much about champ levels since I’m just a 575’er in pvp.  
    Seems like a waste of your roster.  With champed Gambit/Thor/DD you could easily hit 900 - probably even without shields or even joining a BC if you are in the right slice.  And I don't think hopping to 1200 would be all that difficult either.
  • SlappyDingleSlappyDingle Posts: 49 Just Dropped In
    I have that crew all champed and it's no cake walk even getting to 800!
  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    I probably could get higher, but I don’t really care to.  In my 4+ years of playing this game, pvp has never been a mode I really enjoyed.  Transitioning to 5* where I only have 3 characters to choose from didn’t improve my enjoyment of it.  Hopefully doubling my stable of 5*s will likely help, but I still probably won’t put in any additional effort.  
  • 658_2658_2 Posts: 26 Just Dropped In
    edited June 12
    I pulled with just 980k, and similar to you, about 10 4s not champed yet (was mega burnt on Gambit, so rolled the dice).  I definitely don’t regret it.  The new system helped a ton.  I only finished Shuri and MEH, so didn’t have to pour much iso into 4s.  Got to 1.2m iso by the time I finished pulling, and champed JJ and Okoye immediately.  Wasted 40 covers roughly.  Nbd.  

    I think it’s win/win for you.  Pull now and you’ll easily champ 2 5s with iso left over to champ two or three more 4s, or champ all 3 5s with little iso left.  Alternatively, you wait and finish your 4s but skip JJ and maybe Cap, who are both good but way behind Okoye, Thor, and Gambit, so won’t get a ton of use anyway.  Can’t really go wrong here.  Glass half full.
  • QuebbsterQuebbster Posts: 7,375 Chairperson of the Boards
    I have that crew all champed and it's no cake walk even getting to 800!

    What slice do you usually play? Results may vary according to slice...

    Steve Rogers never wanted to be a super soldier. He always wanted to be... LumberCap! Leaping from tree to tree as they float down the mighty rivers of British Columbia. The giant redwood! The larch! The fir! The mighty Scots pine! With his best Bucky by his side! They'd sing, sing, sing...

  • VizMantisVizMantis Posts: 265 Mover and Shaker
    So I should definitely pull my hoard before they stop cover swapping, right?
  • justsingjustsing Posts: 280 Mover and Shaker
    VizMantis said:
    So I should definitely pull my hoard before they stop cover swapping, right?
    Yes.
    ROSTER (as of May 19, 2018)
  • QuebbsterQuebbster Posts: 7,375 Chairperson of the Boards

    That or hoard harder so you are ready when there are Three fivestars you want in Latest. Probably need at least 400 pulls to have a decent chance to champ all Three, and the risk of waste is higher now.

    But if you want Jess, Cap and Okoye by all means go nuts now.

    Steve Rogers never wanted to be a super soldier. He always wanted to be... LumberCap! Leaping from tree to tree as they float down the mighty rivers of British Columbia. The giant redwood! The larch! The fir! The mighty Scots pine! With his best Bucky by his side! They'd sing, sing, sing...

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