Probability of getting no mythics in multiple premium packs

2

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  • mrixl2520mrixl2520 Posts: 193 Tile Toppler
    mrixl2520 said:
    I went 2 packs without even so much as a Rare. #badfeels
    ouch...my sympathies.  Jopefully you at least got some good uncommons.  I've found some of the uncommons to be more valuable to me than the rares/mythics honestly
    In my third pack I was lucky enough to pull Muldrotha. She's pretty rad, but man oh man were the first 2 packs a bit of a let down.
  • Stormbringer0Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker... :disappointed:
    I remembered your first post on Dominaria pack pulls.  This, sir, is not your set.  My sympathies :/
    Thanks good Sir, i appreciate that. :smile:
    bad thing is, Rival wasn’t my set either lol
    which set was your last good set then?
    Ixalan was okay, but the last „good“ sets were  Battle for Ravnica and Oath of the Gatewatch. I pulled several mythics from the 3-card-boosters. Innistrat Block was meh (still missing the good werewolves), Kaladesh block was meh (still missing the good energize cards) and amonketh had cycling which compensated a lot.
  • DBJonesDBJones Posts: 803 Critical Contributor
    One of my coalition members started me on waiting until I get a rare from the free packs to open other packs. My first two Dominaria premium packs got me Mox Amber, History of Benelia, and Forebear's Blade. I got Verix Bladewing one or two PPs later. My next three got me no mythics, but I've gotten more different uncommons from packs than commons. I have one more common, but some are from Karn, and at least two I haven't gotten dupes of.
    Anyway, my luck seemed to start strong then peter off, which seems to happen often, thus waiting until the free packs seen to indicate it's good.
  • Tilwin90Tilwin90 Posts: 638 Critical Contributor
    edited May 2018
    Oh I don't know if it's only that probability that sucks... But the actual cards you drop... and the dupes... I have 13/26 mythics from the set right now (no, don't ask how many packs I've gotten). 
    Out of those guess what... I opened Traxos 7 TIMES already! 7 TINYKITTY TIMES! Yep... that's SEVEN! The last two copies I "only" got today... one from the 400 Elite, and one from a DOM PP.  SAME FREAKING CARD SHOWING UP AGAIN AND AGAIN! And it's tinykitty!

    I'm going to sit now on the sideline while everyone parades their Jodahs and Glorious Rebirths.  :| Oh and cute masterpieces that people keep getting them like candy, while I stare at my Pernicious Deed as I have absolutely nothing to do with it! It's tinykitty! 
  • WolfteethWolfteeth Posts: 82 Match Maker
    Are they just giving everyone the same Rares and Mythics?  I don't get it.  
  • WolfteethWolfteeth Posts: 82 Match Maker
    Tilwin90 said:
    Oh I don't know if it's only that probability that sucks... But the actual cards you drop... and the dupes... I have 13/26 mythics from the set right now (no, don't ask how many packs I've gotten). 
    Out of those guess what... I opened Traxos 7 TIMES already! 7 TINYKITTY TIMES! Yep... that's SEVEN! The last two copies I "only" got today... one from the 400 Elite, and one from a DOM PP.  SAME FREAKING CARD SHOWING UP AGAIN AND AGAIN! And it's tinykitty!

    I'm going to sit now on the sideline while everyone parades their Jodahs and Glorious Rebirths.  :| Oh and cute masterpieces that people keep getting them like candy, while I stare at my Pernicious Deed as I have absolutely nothing to do with it! It's tinykitty! 
    I had a similar problem when I had opened Kokusho 3x in a row.  I sent them an email and they just said "there is nothing we can do"...how about you give me back 400 of my purples and cut the tinykitty?  I am sick of spending money and time on this game when I just keep getting screwed over,  My next set of purples and I get a Traxos which seems to be the only one people are getting. 
  • Stormbringer0Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    At least it were three masterpieces. I have two mediocre ones. And I’m playing since the beginning ;)
  • FindingHeart8FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,342 Chairperson of the Boards
    Thuran said:
    mrixl2520 said:k
    I went 2 packs without even so much as a Rare. #badfeels
    ouch...my sympathies.  Jopefully you at least got some good uncommons.  I've found some of the uncommons to be more valuable to me than the rares/mythics honestly
    True, but it also means  it will likely cost you 500 orbs more to get the mythics you do want.

    So its not just whether the cards would be played or not, most mythics I don't care about in this set, but there are 23 mythics in this set, meaning 115.00 orbs are needed to complete the set, even a dupe mythic or unimportant one feels like progression and gets you closer to the goals you want.

    The right uncommon might be better than a mythic, but it still progresses you 20 orbs, rather than 500 orbs, or rather; less than 5% of what a mythic would give you


    Hmm...most won't like this, but maybe the solution is actually the orb system itself:

    What if packs, and PPs, gave a fixed amount of orbs, regardless of the cards in them? For example, without having done the EV orbs math, a pack would always gibe you a fixed 120 orbs or such.

    This would mean a pack would always give you the same progress, even if you get nothing new or interesting. Getting an empty PP would be less a kick in the groin if you at least got your orbs worth. Instead with the current randomness, those who get lucky with mythics not only get the mythics, but also more orbs, and those unlucky fall ever farther behind.

    Ofc, single mythics and rates from events could still give orbs, or just replaced with orbs, or guaranteed nondupe
    I mean, yeah, from an orb perspective an uncommon will never measure up to a mythic.  I mean't more that there were some very good uncommons in this set (some that are honestly outright better than the sets rares/mythics on a competitive level).

    From a completionist standpoint I get what you're saying tho.

    And yeah, I'd take a fixed amount of orbs at a higher level considering the number of 5-pack all-commons I've been pulling lately lol
  • Stormbringer0Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    Bought a big pack from the Dominaria special offer because he drop rates seem really good. Still no mythic. I’m getting tired of this game.
  • ThuranThuran Posts: 456 Mover and Shaker
    edited May 2018
    @brigby I have now opened 8 platinum packs from dominaria, spent 2560 crystals, NOT GOTTEN A SINGLE MYTHIC!!

    Anyone want to do the math of what the odds are for doing that with 8 packs which supposedly have a 32% chance of having a mythic???? -_-

    @FindingHeart8 its not about being completionist, its about whether you are able to progress or not, especially at the front of the game. And its about the sheer amount of resources that someone can fall behind.

    Who cares if you got all the mythics, but not having a single one after so long makes a huge difference compared to a player that gets 3-4 in the same amount of packs. And as mentioned, it negatively impacts your ability to get other cards you need.

    The 3-4 mythic guy? If he wants a shot at something he needs, he must spend 100.000 orbs to get it, 20.000 orbs worth if difference from starting at zero, and he will gain orbs faster, allowing his power to rise faster.

    Beneath the sands is not comparable to hour of promise, but more important are cards like Jodah which open up entirely new archetypes. Painting it as a simple issue of wanting to collect them all, is a gross miss characterization of the actual problem.

    Its OK for not all to have all the cards, and the idea that you should work with what you have is fine. The guy who opened weatherlighr makes a different deck from the guy with jodah, but opening a raff is not exactly comparable ;) 

    Equal opportunity, different options, should be the key here. If two players both invest amounts like 3000 or even 30.000 crystals into the game, they should be able to expect a comparable reward from it. 

    In MTG, if you both buy a booster box, you can both safely expect 36 packs, with a handful of mythics. There is a reason why boxes are created in a way that ensures its impossible for a player to open a booster box with no mythics at all ;) of course, the quality of the mythics may vary. 
  • FindingHeart8FindingHeart8 Posts: 2,342 Chairperson of the Boards
    Thuran said:
    @brigby I have now opened 8 platinum packs from dominaria, spent 2560 crystals, NOT GOTTEN A SINGLE MYTHIC!!

    Anyone want to do the math of what the odds are for doing that with 8 packs which supposedly have a 32% chance of having a mythic???? -_-




  • QuantiusQuantius Posts: 147 Tile Toppler

    Thuran said:
    @brigby I have now opened 8 platinum packs from dominaria, spent 2560 crystals, NOT GOTTEN A SINGLE MYTHIC!!

    Agree with everything you said, but wanted to add an upside to your opening line. Hey, at least you didn't spend $100 for 3000 crystals and not get a mythic out of all those packs. Wheeeee!

    I mean, I do have a lot of DOM mythics, but I've also spent about 4000 earned crystals and quite a bit more than $100 on packs at this point. But it really sucks to spend money without getting the good stuff in return.

    Pity timers/guaranteed non-dupes, they need to be added to the game.
  • Stormbringer0Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    edited May 2018
    Yay, got Torgaar from a premium pack. Let’s see how far that card can get me :D
  • Mburn7Mburn7 Posts: 2,860 Chairperson of the Boards
    Yay, got Torgaar from a premium pack. Let’s see how far that card can get me :D
    Seems pretty good with saprolings (especially slimefoot) since they get reinforced a lot fast.  Could also be a potential use with Squee.  Maybe good with Thopters or elves or something else token-y
  • Stormbringer0Stormbringer0 Posts: 190 Tile Toppler
    edited June 2018
    Mburn7 said:
    Yay, got Torgaar from a premium pack. Let’s see how far that card can get me :D
    Seems pretty good with saprolings (especially slimefoot) since they get reinforced a lot fast.  Could also be a potential use with Squee.  Maybe good with Thopters or elves or something else token-y
    Yeah, Thopters was my first thought. I don’t have any Slimefeet or saproling makers, so...
  • MDsupaMDsupa Posts: 124 Tile Toppler
    3000 .. open 10 pp.  Got 1 mythic which is the dupe from my  1st pinkie open... bladewing.  Then I open two more elite.. Got the buggy Haphazard Bombardment and traxos.  Should have started  Heartstone instead.
  • VolrakVolrak Posts: 562 Critical Contributor
    Thuran said:
    @brigby I have now opened 8 platinum packs from dominaria, spent 2560 crystals, NOT GOTTEN A SINGLE MYTHIC!!

    Anyone want to do the math of what the odds are for doing that with 8 packs which supposedly have a 32% chance of having a mythic???? -_-
    It's just (1 - 32.19%)^8, or 4.5%.  For every 22 people who open 8 DOM PPs, one of them is expected to get no mythics, so you have plenty of company amongst the mtgpq player base.  (That doesn't make it suck less. :frowning:)

  • TheF3C3SK1ngTheF3C3SK1ng Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
    Wolfteeth said:
    Are they just giving everyone the same Rares and Mythics?  I don't get it.  
    Yes. Basically the cards are given a sub-rarity within the rarity. Each card has a 0,1 or 2 attached to it in its code. This then determines how frequently it should be given out. This has been proven some time ago, although it could have been a "fake" document, it sure seemed to reflect most peoples experience. 

    So, something like Olivia or Emrakul have a 2, but then stupid worthless mythics like Skaab goliath have a 0 so we get it numerous times. 
  • VolrakVolrak Posts: 562 Critical Contributor
    Wolfteeth said:
    Are they just giving everyone the same Rares and Mythics?  I don't get it.  
    Yes. Basically the cards are given a sub-rarity within the rarity. Each card has a 0,1 or 2 attached to it in its code. This then determines how frequently it should be given out. This has been proven some time ago, although it could have been a "fake" document, it sure seemed to reflect most peoples experience.
    I wouldn't say "proven".  But it was demonstrated at a 99.9% confidence level that KLD rares from a list, supposedly taken from the source code, dropped less often than KLD rares not on the list (based on hundreds of KLD rare cards recorded by the community).  The explanation and supposed list of sub-rarity cards up to AKH is here.

    No tests were done for other rarities or sets, and it's not known whether sub-rarities are still added to new sets or even if the supposed pre-existing list remains in force.  If it's still a thing, it can make dupes more likely.  But even with a simple uniform RNG, plenty of people are expected to get plenty of dupes.
  • TheF3C3SK1ngTheF3C3SK1ng Posts: 31 Just Dropped In
    Dupes is expected and totally normal. 

    People are not getting dupe olivias, or rivers rebukes, or hixxus prison warden.

    At least, not to my knowledge, although, I guess we wouldn't hear about it on here as they wouldn't be complaining.

    My own experience, the dupes are of junk rare/mythics most of the time. Same goes for common/uncommon.
    I've pulled one single final reward (a great common) while i've pulled probably 50 prakhata bug (a useless common) same goes for uncommons, I've only seen unliscenced disintigration once, when i finally pulled it, but there are so many uncommons i've pulled 20+ of. It feels shady, and deters me from spending any more real money.

    I know this can't be just me. And it just shows there is a second level of rarity attributed to each rarity class.


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