Probability of getting no mythics in multiple premium packs

timthes

Hi, in my coalition there are a couple of members who right after release of Dominaria opened 6 and 7 premium packs without getting any mythics, are there more players who experience the same?

Was wondering what the probability of that happening was, so I calculated it with the above cumulative distribution function
And with 6 and 7 premium packs in a row with a current mythic chance of 32,19% I come to the following probabilities.


Pr(no mythics in 6) = f(0) = Pr(X = 0) = (6/0) 0.3219⁰ (1 - 0.3219) ^6-0 = 9.72%

Pr(no mythics in 7) = f(0) = Pr(X = 0) = (6/0) 0.3219⁰ (1 - 0.3219)^7-0 = 6.6%
those are remote chances but feasible , was wondering if these numbers are correct...

DumasAG

I also went 5 with no mythic, grabbed Multani on the 6th

Volrak

I get the same numbers using a different method, so I think they are correct.

The thing about those probabilities is they are not only your personal chances of getting no mythics from n PPs, but they are also the expected proportion of all mtgpq players who will get no mythics from that many PPs.  When you think about how many players there are, that probably adds up to thousands of people getting feel-bads due to the game working as intended.  It's why many similar games have a pity timer (guaranteed mythic after a long bad luck streak).

Thuran

Doing my own math, it comes up with similar results. That said, it does little to reduce the frustration felt at a system claiming that 1 in 3 PP's will have a mythic, and yet after 1880 crystals, nothing!

It really takes away a lot of enthusiasm for spending your hard earned crystals, and the entire experience of a new set launching.

There is a reason why other collectible games tend to feature pity timers, to ensure that even in fringe cases of bad luck, a player WILL get something sooner rather than later. For something like heartstone it means that you are GUARANTEED a legendary card in your first 10 packs of a new set, and a pity timer that ensures a legendary card at least every 40 packs. 

Instead, we get something like IXL which really managed to kill any sense of reward from earning and opening boosters, where you could litterarily open hundreds of boosters and not get a single mythic in them.

Even worse, that creates a psychological experience which connects opening premium packs to disappointment and a feel bad experience. After a certain point, as happened with IXL, you don't really feel like even opening them at all, since you anticipate it will be a bad experience, and rather than the excitement of maybe getting something great, you open "rewards" expecting to be disappointed and get nothing. 

That seems like a really bad model for convincing players to invest in the game.

6 PP's are 1880 crystals, currently you can buy 1850 crystals for the equivalent of 87$

Just think of how great it would feel to pour almost 90$ into the game, and get NOTHING except more duplicate rares. It certainly does nothing to convince me that I should move away from F2P.

This is made even worse with a new set, since you cannot craft any of the cards, and even after the first month the cost remains prohibitively high. 


To compare; It's christmas, you head down to the christmas tree, full of excitement, hoping to get that new lego mtg set you wished for, or maybe another lego set, who knows? You get your present, and yes, it sounds like lego, so full of excitement you start unpacking it to uncover the mysteries within, already looking forward to playing with your new toy! 

Then you open a present, and discover that sound was a few quarters inside. No matter, you got a big family, so you dive into the next present, surely this must contain something exciting! More pennies..

And on an on, by the end, you sit there with 20$ in pennies and no lego except a stupid single car and figurine. Your parents tell you, "its ok, you can just use the money to buy some lego". You go to the store, only to discover that the lego you want is not available again until january, and then you find out that in january it will cost 50$ for a single set, but its ok, they will eventually lower the price in APRIL (aprox the time until ravnica hits), so you can keep your "christmas present" of 20$ and wait 3-4 months, while all the other kids play with their awesome new toys....merry christmas....


That is the experience the current system entails, does it sound like something that will make you excited for christmas next year, knowing you are in for more of the same?


Happy customers is not about telling them "there was a 10% chance of getting nothing", it is about feeling like you had a good and fair experience or not. 

Furks

While we are comparing games... Hearthstone also guarantees that you will not get duplicate legendaries (until you have all of them) There is also no difference in cost for crafting cards of different sets, neither is there a wait time on being able to craft the latest expansion. Also, all heroes are free. 

I feel like all these limitations and stipulations in Mtgpq just end up giving a worse experience. It's not like there isn't anything to spend real money on, people just don't want to pay for a bad return on investment.

When I spend 50 bucks on Hearthstone, I know I will get 2-3 legendaries and probably enough to craft one legendary of my choice. When I spend 50 bucks on mtgpq I might not get anything except orbs that would go to a random mythic (origins because the other expansions are just not worth spending the orbs on) 

I'm not sure just how much money they expect people to have to spend to complete an expansion, but currently it's just ridiculously high. Then there's planeswalkers too

Stormbringer0

I dunno when I ripped a Mythic from a premium pack the last time. It's been months, I **** you not. Probably in the beginnings of Ixalan. Rivals of Ixalan gave me nothing and the two Mythics I got from Dominaria are Firesong and Sunspeaker and Verix, which I pulled from pinkies. As I said on different topics: I get roflstomped by insane dino and pirate decks and decks with 2-3 masterpieces. Dominaria does a good job on making the gap between luck and bad luck players smaller because of the good Uncommons. But those can't hold up to multiple Gishas.

Coilbox

Launch day i opened 11 premium packs, **** eleven... got 1 mythic and then a second one, which was the same, a dupe... well designed system to please your players, yeah..

Thuran

@Brigby 7th PP, only guaranteed rare, still not a single mythic after 2240 crystals spent...still waiting on that luck you talked so much about -_-

Gideon

I guess I don’t pray to RNGesus enough.I opened 8 and got 1 mythic. Their drop rates are a sham.

Sarahschmara

Yeah, I “wasted” all of the good luck I’d saved up on the last release and pulled Firesong and Sunspeaker on my first DOM PP. Let me tell you all about how excited I am to “win” it twice this last event. “Not very.”

Volrak

Sarahschmara said:

Yeah, I “wasted” all of the good luck I’d saved up on the last release and pulled Firesong and Sunspeaker on my first DOM PP. Let me tell you all about how excited I am to “win” it twice this last event. “Not very.”

I also opened F&S from a PP, and was also "not very" excited to see it as an event reward.  Nobody likes to have to adjust a valuation of their asset downwards.  But if I'd known I was effectively opening orbs and not a new mythic from the PP, rationally I should still be happy about it, because 750 orbs is still enormously above the expected value of an unknown card from a pack.  (I'd certainly be taking that on every card from every PP, if I was given the option!)

And the good news is your luck wasn't "wasted", you're just as likely to pull good cards now as if you'd be if hadn't opened that mythic.  Ironically, one effect of a pity timer would be that you could "waste" a mythic pull in exactly that way.  And the flip side of this is those who've had bad luck aren't any more likely to subsequently have better than average luck as a result.  However, the act of taking many random samples means their overall luck is most likely to be pulled up towards average, and overtaking the average in future is also always possible.

Stormbringer0

Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker...

Rhasget

Stormbringer0 said:

Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker...

Seems you and I are on the same terms with RNGesus then.
I bought my final PP just before AWR signup opened and pulled it. Went to join in and then saw the rewardlist.

FindingHeart8

Stormbringer0 said:

Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker...

I remembered your first post on Dominaria pack pulls.  This, sir, is not your set.  My sympathies

Stormbringer0

FindingHeart8 said:

Stormbringer0 said:

Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker...

I remembered your first post on Dominaria pack pulls.  This, sir, is not your set.  My sympathies

Thanks good Sir, i appreciate that.
bad thing is, Rival wasn’t my set either lol

Narcoticsagent

My experience has been that the % shown is accurate at least until we got to Dom.

After 40 PP of Ixalan my mythic % was within 2% of the advertised rate.

After 32 PP of Rivals I was within 5% of the advertised rate. 

In Dom I have opened 29 PP and i have 22 mythics (10 dupes >.<) 

I would say in older sets the advertised %s have been close but I did not keep track of specifics since they weren't showing the odds yet.

FindingHeart8

Stormbringer0 said:

FindingHeart8 said:

Stormbringer0 said:

Just for he record: I ripped my first mythic from DOM and it was Firesong and Sunspeaker...

I remembered your first post on Dominaria pack pulls.  This, sir, is not your set.  My sympathies

Thanks good Sir, i appreciate that.
bad thing is, Rival wasn’t my set either lol

which set was your last good set then?

Mine was Rivals...last good set before that though was Innistrad so it's been a while lol.

Either the probability of getting good cards in older sets were higher...or my standards were lower.  Probably the latter.

FindingHeart8

Just opened a premium to see if my luck has changed.  It has not.

1 rare dupe + the guaranteed rare.

2 uncommons + 3 commons per pack average.  1 pack was 1 uncommon + 4 comons.  1 pack had 3 uncommons and 2 commons.  That's all folks!

mrixl2520

I went 2 packs without even so much as a Rare. #badfeels

FindingHeart8

mrixl2520 said:

I went 2 packs without even so much as a Rare. #badfeels

ouch...my sympathies.  Jopefully you at least got some good uncommons.  I've found some of the uncommons to be more valuable to me than the rares/mythics honestly

Thuran

FindingHeart8 said:

mrixl2520 said:k

I went 2 packs without even so much as a Rare. #badfeels

ouch...my sympathies.  Jopefully you at least got some good uncommons.  I've found some of the uncommons to be more valuable to me than the rares/mythics honestly

True, but it also means  it will likely cost you 500 orbs more to get the mythics you do want.

So its not just whether the cards would be played or not, most mythics I don't care about in this set, but there are 23 mythics in this set, meaning 115.00 orbs are needed to complete the set, even a dupe mythic or unimportant one feels like progression and gets you closer to the goals you want.

The right uncommon might be better than a mythic, but it still progresses you 20 orbs, rather than 500 orbs, or rather; less than 5% of what a mythic would give you


Hmm...most won't like this, but maybe the solution is actually the orb system itself:

What if packs, and PPs, gave a fixed amount of orbs, regardless of the cards in them? For example, without having done the EV orbs math, a pack would always gibe you a fixed 120 orbs or such.

This would mean a pack would always give you the same progress, even if you get nothing new or interesting. Getting an empty PP would be less a kick in the groin if you at least got your orbs worth. Instead with the current randomness, those who get lucky with mythics not only get the mythics, but also more orbs, and those unlucky fall ever farther behind.

Ofc, single mythics and rates from events could still give orbs, or just replaced with orbs, or guaranteed nondupe