19 Covert Ops pulls and Zero 5*

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Comments

  • ZeiramMRZeiramMR Posts: 1,313 Chairperson of the Boards
    edited April 2018
    I don't think I spent CP on a release store since the fall until this one. I had bad luck with about 15 tokens and no 5*s. Going for Jessica and Ghost Rider when they entered Latest tokens took a while too, but at least in those I was getting other 5*s occasionally (though closer to 10% overall instead of 15%).

    While I have had some bad odds this year for assorted LTs, I have had great odds at other times and I realize it all should balance out over time.
  • jameshjamesh Posts: 1,600 Chairperson of the Boards
    Quebbster said:
    marshall said:
    I've seen it mentioned a couple of times here and on LINE that RNG is not truly random for MPQ and that they compensate for very streaky runs over time. Otherwise you'd have people that would be incredibly unlucky with averages of 5-7% and others that would be too lucky.

    That's a big reason to avoid the special stores actually - as I understand it the pulls list is specific for each store, so if you pull from regular Heroics or Latest or Classic Legends a dry run just means you are getting closer to Another hot streak since the stores aren't going away. If you end up with a dry run in a special store you are SOL once the store goes away though...
    That sounds like a pretty big misunderstanding of what a PRNG is.  While a particular RNG seed will produce a fixed sequence of numbers, it is designed to produce what looks like independent random numbers.  That means that it should be difficult/impossible to predict the next random number just from knowledge of the previous random numbers.  It certainly won't be trying to break streaks.

    Now, there are places in the game where one pull does depend on previous pulls, but they do that in a transparent fashion: vaults.
  • sinnerjflsinnerjfl Posts: 1,157 Chairperson of the Boards
    ARE the "streaks" reset with each of these stores, or is the New Release store keeping a running tally regardless of who the character is? I was like 0:10 in Alias for landing any 5*, and then I got a 5* hawkeye on my first draw in Covert Ops. I ended up making 2-3 more pulls, all 4*s, so my sample size isn't that huge, but it felt like what tends to happen in Latest and Classic to me, when you go on a cold streak and then end up with a splash of hot water if you do it long enough.
    From my understanding and the info that people managed to gather, each store pre-generates pulls for you, so your 5* pull might be on the 1st try, or on the 22nd try, you just don't know.

    Whatever your pulls in one store doesn't have any impact on another as each store generates their own pulls.

    Im not sure but your pulls will also reset when a new char enters Latests as its considered a new store (someone correct me if that's wrong).
  • brollbroll Posts: 4,727 Chairperson of the Boards
    That moment when you want to spend your CP on a 5* being released for the first time and the odds are 1:7. You get absolutely no 5* cover to proc. Has anyone else spent 475 CP or more and had the same issue on this event???
    I've had both sides of this.  I had a recent streak where pulling 20ish got my 0 5* and I almost gave up.  3 out of my next 4 were 5* + a 5* BH.

    RNG is RNG.
  • GrimSkaldGrimSkald Posts: 2,019 Chairperson of the Boards

    I had already maxxed out my AA, so I decided to pour all my CP (about two weeks worth, I think, it was initially 40 pulls,) into Event pulls for Jessica Jones.  My BP was champed, and my Green Goblin had six covers (2/3/1,) so this was perfect - I figured I'd come out of it with on average two of each - another 1-3 levels wouldn't hurt for BP and I could really use those GG covers.

    My second pull was BP.  That's fine, two more pulls, then a JJ.  Awesome!  Building up some steam there.  I then proceeded to pull 36 more pulls with CP with no 5*s.  None.  I got 8 more Event pulls (including the two tokens from the event and one more from the vault,) and did not get a single additional 5*.

    Unfortunately, this **** happens.  It's massively discouraging, but it does even out in the end.  I really do wish I had pulled at least one GG, though...

  • HadronicHadronic Posts: 338 Mover and Shaker
    Binomial Distribution app for you all to play with
    https://homepage.divms.uiowa.edu/~mbognar/applets/bin.html

    n is the number of pulls 
    p is the probability of interest (.05 if just looking for specific 5*, .15 if looking for any 5*)
    It will generate the PDF for you
  • Milk JugzMilk Jugz Posts: 1,122 Chairperson of the Boards
    12 pulls, 0 5* covers..... I feel your pain, was going for that last HE cover i need to complete him....
  • Moon RoachMoon Roach Posts: 2,863 Chairperson of the Boards
    dadows said:
    In Top Gun I just came across a level 458 5/3/5 Cap boosted to 548, so someone was quite lucky.
    check out their roster. it’s not legit. 


    I kept him in my queue, now his Cap is 459.

    14 champed 5* (all at least 457), the other 3 5* at 1/1/1 including Gambit

    14 champed 4* (MEH Hulk 367, Valkyrie 358, Shuri 355, Mockingbird at 327 then a big gap back to Quake and 2 others at 289), the other 2 at 1/1/1

    5 champed 3* (none above 169), 5 not champed

    1 champed 2* Magneto 98), 7 others

    4 maxed 1*, including Venom

    Hmm...

  • ZeiramMRZeiramMR Posts: 1,313 Chairperson of the Boards
    ZeiramMR said:
    I don't think I spent CP on a release store since the fall until this one. I had bad luck with about 15 tokens and no 5*s. Going for Jessica and Ghost Rider when they entered Latest tokens took a while too, but at least in those I was getting other 5*s occasionally (though closer to 10% overall instead of 15%).

    While I have had some bad odds this year for assorted LTs, I have had great odds at other times and I realize it all should balance out over time.
    I pulled one more Covert Ops and finally got a 5*. And it was my first of Hawkeye's Blue covers, which really helped my lopsided Clint by getting him to 5/1/4 (and will be fully covered if I somehow get Kate to 370).
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