19 Covert Ops pulls and Zero 5*
MysterB
Posts: 25 Just Dropped In
That moment when you want to spend your CP on a 5* being released for the first time and the odds are 1:7. You get absolutely no 5* cover to proc. Has anyone else spent 475 CP or more and had the same issue on this event???
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43 pulls. no cap covers. 4 widow and 2 hawkeye though.0
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Had a guy in our alliance pull TWO new C5p covers with his two earned tokens; 1 red, 1 yellow.
We are thinking of booting him from the alliance (j/k).
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8 pulls to get a cap yellow. But got a Natasha at pull 20
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(17/20)^19 = 0.04559944833
I would guess this happens to roughly 1 out of every 22 people.7 -
I went through the same thing when Jess came out. 28 pulls without a 5*. It happens. Randomness gets streaky.
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Used 325 CP and got 2 Red New 5* Cap. When Jessica was released I used 375 CP and all the Boss reward tokens and her vault token and did not get her. I ended up with two 5* Black Panthers and 1 Green Goblin though. Funny thing is when Jessica came into latest I got her upon opening the 1st Latest Token.
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Im 4/5 with 3 Nats and a Hawkeye0
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I went about 40 pulls with no Cap. I got 2 Hawkeyes and 1 Widow but that’s still a terrible percentage. It was even worse for the Jessica Jones token. Almost 80 pulls and no Jessica Jones.
I’m done with new release tokens.4 -
Phew. Thanks for everyone’s input. After this I’m done with release tokens going forward. It just baffles me how you were almost guaranteed a Legendary pull in their ratio of 1:7 (basically 1 out of 7) like 6 months ago and now it’s complete “luck” with the same formula. I could be reaching with this, but it comes after I’ve severly cut my spending on the app too.0
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Borstock said:Had a guy in our alliance pull TWO new C5p covers with his two earned tokens; 1 red, 1 yellow.
We are thinking of booting him from the alliance (j/k).1 -
1125 CP for 2 Hawkeye, 1 BW and 1 Cap. Only went in because Hawkeye and widdow both could use any cover they got. But still 1:7 no way0
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75 CP on 3rd pull, got Yellow Cap5.
I guess I got really lucky for once...0 -
MysterBytchs said:It just baffles me how you were almost guaranteed a Legendary pull in their ratio of 1:7 (basically 1 out of 7) like 6 months ago and now it’s complete “luck” with the same formula. I could be reaching with this, but it comes after I’ve severly cut my spending on the app too.
Its all RNG and yes it's irritating.2 -
atomzed said:MysterBytchs said:It just baffles me how you were almost guaranteed a Legendary pull in their ratio of 1:7 (basically 1 out of 7) like 6 months ago and now it’s complete “luck” with the same formula. I could be reaching with this, but it comes after I’ve severly cut my spending on the app too.
Its all RNG and yes it's irritating.0 -
Sometimes you beat the odds, sometimes... uh, the odds beat you, I guess?
I got lucky this time and got a Captain Lumberjack cover from one of the free tokens. Only about a 10% chance for that happening. On the other hand, I had to open around 20 Alias Investigations tokens before I got Jessica Jones, and when I spent CP in Robbie Reyes' release vault the only fivestar cover I got was Doc Ock...
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I pulled about 20 tokens or so, mostly since I wanted covers for my 1/3/1 Hawkeye. I pulled a Purple Cap, three Black Widow (bringing her to 5/4/3) and on my last one, a red Hawkeye. This makes up for other release vaults, where I've either gotten nothing, or the single 5-star cover that I could *not* use from that vault (Black Bolt Green) Customer Service does not exchange those, so that was a 25 CP exchange for 2000 ISO.
As for streakiness, I've pulled 273 tokens from the Deadpool Vault, trying to get the final red Spider Woman cover I need for my 5/5/2. Not only did I not pull that one, I haven't pulled the LT from the vault either. I did get the green Invisible Woman 4-star cover, though.0 -
The 15% draw rate being rather low, it can take hundred of pulls before you actually reach that. Another reason to not pull from special vaults, you have no idea what your pull distribution for that specific vault is and you have limited time to use CP on it.
Ill stick to opening Latests.
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I think MPQ should let players take a class on Probability 101. Then, they will understand what probability is and what probability is not.
1:7 probability is not getting a Latest Legend within every 7th, 14th, 21st, ... 7Xth pull. Some got 2 5* covers with 2 pulls and some got 1 5* cover at the 20th pull. It simply means the pull rate must be high enough to see 1:7. I think it's 10,000 or 100,000 pulls.
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HoundofShadow said:I think MPQ should let players take a class on Probability 101. Then, they will understand what probability is and what probability is not.
1:7 probability is not getting a Latest Legend within every 7th, 14th, 21st, ... 7Xth pull. Some got 2 5* covers with 2 pulls and some got 1 5* cover at the 20th pull. It simply means the pull rate must be high enough to see 1:7. I think it's 10,000 or 100,000 pulls.
Not a terrible idea, but I’m sure they wouldn’t want to give “absolute” answers. Thanks for your input ^_^0
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