OSCORP: HEROIC Sub: TOWER Tracking Thread

Unknown

Cool, just asked the question on another thread. I'll try and do the math now.

Unknown

242,028,876 of 400M
60%
6:13 PM east coast US.
5/12/2014

Demiurge_Will said in the main thread that the devs were considering arbitrarily moving the end point of the sub by adding points, so end-time predictions based off our painstakingly gathered data should be considered uncertain, due to the whims of the devs. I have no idea how or when points might get added, so there's no guarantee we'll have any warning before the numbers change.

Unknown

We probably got about 24H left on this sub the last 150M in the first sub took about 20 hours but current processes is a bit slower this time around. Also we are not a weekend. With what Demiurge_Will said I can see them not letting it run for much more than that. It could be really interesting as if we a bit slower still so we might finish around the 25 hours to go mark and have fun trying to fit in 3 refreshes in the final nodes.

Unknown

248,669,507
62%
7:17 PM east coast US.
5/12/2014

Unknown

Vairelome wrote:

Demiurge_Will said in the main thread that the devs were considering arbitrarily moving the end point of the sub by adding points, so end-time predictions based off our painstakingly gathered data should be considered uncertain, due to the whims of the devs. I have no idea how or when points might get added, so there's no guarantee we'll have any warning before the numbers change.

Seriously?!? I will flame the hell out the forum threads if they do this AGAIN! I really hope that they revert back to the old way (timers) after this event until they can figure a better way than this. And if they want to try something new, cool. But if they effe up the points/system and it causes too many prizes or whatever, they should just let it ride out. NOT MAKE CHANGES AFTER AN EVENT HAS STARTED. That is what beta testing is for!!!

Ok, now that I have that out of my system. Here are the latest stats:

255,851,268 of 400M
63%
7:23pm CST
5/12/2014

Unknown

260,960,673 of 400M
65%
11:14am GMT +10
Tuesday 13th of May 2014

Unknown

At this pace (~6M/hour) Tower will finish by around this time tomorrow, if devs don't tamper with it.

Unknown

270,184,701 out of 400M
67% completion
10:35 PM EDT (UTC -4)
May 12, 2014

Pace over last measurement: 9.224 million over 80 minutes = 6.918 million per hour
Points remaining: 129,815,299
At current pace, target score will be reached in 18.765 hours (18h 46m), 5:21 PM EDT (UTC -4) Tuesday, May 13.

** This is a bit unrealistic, as this is currently U.S. Prime Time.

At a more modest 6 million per hour, the target score will be reached in 21.64 hours (21h 38m), 8:13 PM EDT (UTC - 4) Tuesday, May 13.

** I would assert that this is likely the minimum acceptable pace for the remainder of the round. If the Tower will not be realistically cleared by 8:00 PM EDT tomorrow because of scaling issues, then the devs will likely adjust the points needed to close around this time +/- 2 hours. This will grant the final pins on the Oscorp map 28 hours (+/- 2), which allows 3 cycles for scoring. At 3 scoring cycles, rubberbanding against the global main leader should eliminate any points advantage gained in the subs (In the Heroic: OSCORP thread, I asserted that 2 cycles would be reasonably sufficient to catch up in points. For three cycles, there is absolutely no question that for this event the points didn't matter at all in the subs, only the final pins of the event matter in yet another horse race to the finish).

Unknown

288,305,575 of 400M
72% completion
3:11pm GMT/UTC +10
Tuesday 13th of May 2014

Unknown

295,472,402 of 400M
73%
2:21 AM east coast US.
5/13/2014

Unknown

So the last Hour did 6.2M and we are 106M from the end. Okay some points of reference

(a) From this time yesterday to score 106M took 19Hours
(b) From 9am BST on Friday to 7am BST on Saturday in sub one we scored 276 - 139 = 137 Million points
(c) From 9am BST on Monday to 7am BST on Tuesdayin sub two we score 294 - 165 = 129 Million points
(d) It took 13 Hours to score the final 106M in the first sub

So currently my best bet is unless scaling is killing people we have 15-16 hours left

Unknown

301,339,052 of 400 million
75% complete
3:29 EST/ 12:29 PST.

Unknown

304,736,139 of 400M
76%
4:13 AM east coast US.
5/13/2014

Unknown

309,966,090 / 400M
77%
5:30 am us eastern

Down to about 5 M or 1.25% per hour this last hour, so at this rate it'll be at least 18 more hours. I guess the rate will speed up again later in the day though.

Unknown

I'd expect it to speed up a fair bit in a few hours; I'd say much closer to 12 hours from now than 18, maybe a bit less.

Unknown

Vairelome wrote:

I'd expect it to speed up a fair bit in a few hours; I'd say much closer to 12 hours from now than 18, maybe a bit less.

I hope you're right, but I wonder if it's going to be all that quicker after all. Don't second and later third subs usually have fewer points, because people are starting to get hit with scaling?

I have 1 node at hard and 2 at deadly by now and some of the 'normal' ones are no guarantee for a quick win either, without a usable Patch. I wiped out my healthpacks on doing even one, incomplete clear earlier (wanted to do two, to get into top 5 again) and it's not going to get easier...

But I do hope you're right.

Unknown

313,097,924 of 400M
78% competition
8:10pm GMT/UTC +10
Tuesday 13th of May 2014

Unknown

321,728,948 of 400M
80% completion as of time of posting.

Unknown

324,081,556 of 400M
81% completion.

Unknown

339,080,473 /400M
84.75%
10:05 am us eastern