OSCORP: HEROIC Sub: TOWER Tracking Thread

Unknown

With the introduction of the new method of computing sub-events (Points vs Time), I participated in a tracking thread of the City Sub (viewtopic.php?f=20&t=7052) and would like to see it continued for the Tower Sub from the beginning so we can get a better understanding of how it works and the approx timing of it all. It was at 600k in less than 30 minutes of it being opened.

So here are the opening stats for Tower...


1,673,778 of 400M
0% completed (based on the Events Rules Tab, Under the Event Rewards Tab)
5:21pm
05/10/2014

Unknown

4,962,771 of 400M
1% completed
6:00 pm CST
05/10/2014

Unknown

Analysis from City sub: I stuck all the numbers from the original tracking thread in a spreadsheet, and beat the data until a chart popped out, and found a few surprising details.

Expected:

The tail of the graph representing the final chunk of the sub did have a somewhat greater slope than the rest of the graph (though a good chunk of our early data was sporadic).

Not Expected:

The slope increase was smaller than predicted--midway through the event, we were accumulating about 1.5-1.7% every hour, but in the final period, gains were closer to 2.5% per hour. That's more, but it's not even double the rate.

The slope during the final period did not go exponential; while the rate did increase from the middle of the event to the end of the event, the final period was still basically linear.

Most Surprising:

So, the rate across the "final period" was about 2.5% per hour? That period started at around 80%, not 90% or 95%. We went from 79% to 90% in roughly 4 hours 30 minutes, and then from 90% to 100% in 4 hours 10 minutes.


Conclusion--I expect the data gathered from this first sub will probably do a good job of predicting future subs of this type, so long as the back-end mechanics stay more or less the same. Sure, regular forum-goers will be able to tune their performances a bit better, but I think this will have a minimal impact on worldwide trends, since we're a small minority of the total playerbase. Most players will check in periodically, grind some nodes, wait for refresh, see that the cumulative total probably won't permit an additional refresh, and grind extra during the last 80%, and that behavior will dominate the statistics.

Unknown

Tower, 9.8% (39,347,824 / 400M) at 2:16 AM east coast US. 5/11/2014

Edit: Progress bar is averaging around 1.1% per hour over the first 10%. I expect the slow start is normal, and due to many people not joining a sub yet as well as not enough points in the system for rubberbanding bonuses to kick in. If you can submit data in this thread, it would help us pull the patterns out of the data more easily.

Unknown

Tower : 11% (44,600,009 / 400M) at 5:45pm GMT +10.

Unknown

45,675,120 of 400M
11% completed
3:05am CST
05/11/2014

Sorry I slacked. I knocked out for a while.

Unknown

48,318,175 of 400M
11% completed
3:55am CST
05/11/2014

Unknown

50,182,935 of 400M
12% completed
4:30am CST
05/11/2014

Unknown

53,740,959 of 400M
13% completed
5:50am CST
05/11/2014

Unknown

59,783,302
14%
8:38AM EST

Unknown

71,344,613 of 400M
17%
10:55 AM east coast US.
5/11/2014

Completion rate slowed to around 0.7% per hour for a little while; I expect that was the result of the day/night activity cycle. It's up to around 1.3%+ per hour right now.

Unknown

76,872,358 of 400M
19%
11:53 AM EST

Unknown

78,255,171 of 400M
19%
12:03 east coast US.

Pace is picking up; recent rate is up to 1.6-1.7% per hour. It wouldn't surprise me if the rate moves from about 1% to 2%+ per hour on the peak/off-peak daily worldwide activity cycle (and this data should give us a peek at that cycle, with enough points). It's possible that much of the final period acceleration in the City sub data was actually the upswing of the daily cycle--the timing looks about right for that--and we'd have seen similar sinusoidal movement in the City sub tracking with more data points.

Edit: Very very early rough estimate that Tower sub will finish with somewhat more than 24 hours left in the main bracket. I should be able to refine that estimate over the next day or so; I could easily be off by hours either way right now. (More data = better estimate; thanks everyone for contributing.)

Bowgentle

Vairelome wrote:

It wouldn't surprise me if the rate moves from about 1% to 2%+ per hour on the peak/off-peak daily worldwide activity cycle (and this data should give us a peek at that cycle, with enough points). It's possible that much of the final period acceleration in the City sub data was actually the upswing of the daily cycle--the timing looks about right for that--and we'd have seen similar sinusoidal movement in the City sub tracking with more data points.

Wouldn't it be great if the devs actually used the data they gather with this to find the "perfect" ending times for events?
Which, according to yesterday, would be between 10 and 12 PM CET instead of the usual 6 AM CET finish, giving folks both in the US _and_ in Europe a chance to be around for the final hours of an event.

Of course I'm delusional, ending times for PVE will stay fixed at 6 am, PVP will be 75% 6 AM with the other 25% 6 PM.

Unknown

82,287,287 of 400M
20%
12:42 PM east coast US.
5/11/2014

Bowgentle wrote:

Wouldn't it be great if the devs actually used the data they gather with this to find the "perfect" ending times for events?
Which, according to yesterday, would be between 10 and 12 PM CET instead of the usual 6 AM CET finish, giving folks both in the US _and_ in Europe a chance to be around for the final hours of an event.

Of course I'm delusional, ending times for PVE will stay fixed at 6 am, PVP will be 75% 6 AM with the other 25% 6 PM.

Oh, I fully expect the devs have far better tools than my rudimentary spreadsheet, and they have *all* the activity data, not just bits and pieces. From what IceIX has said in various threads, I think d3 HQ is in Boston, so traditional ending times are either at noon or midnight there. I guarantee the daily activity cycle looks like a sine wave, and I'd guess the devs put the usual end times about midway through the rise and midway through the fall of that wave.

Unknown

Wanted to play some more but got discouraged by lvl 116 Ares, so have a data point instead:

84,938,525 of 400M
21%
1:08 pm us eastern

gambl0r312

thank you all for doing this!

And another data point:


89,209,602 of 400M
22%
1045 (10:45 am) West Coast US
5/11/2045

Also my "Overwatch" stage has Lvl 181 Ares, Lvl 182 Bullseye, and Lvl 181 Moonie

even though i've not been shy about eating dmg/downing my own team (poor Storm) before finishing the stage....

Unknown

89,274,077 of 400M
22%
1:47 PM east coast US.
5/11/2014

Unknown

98,775,606 of 400M
24%
2:12pm CST
5/11/2014

Dayv

104344315
25%
16:03 EDT
5/11/2014

Unknown

106,788,176 of 400M
26%
3:25pm CST
5/11/2014