Elite Pack Repeats

Volrak

Gideon said:

Spend 400 jewels to become the mayor of dupe city which is the opposite of “value town”.

If you compare what we are currently getting with what you want or what you personally feel is good value, then anything whatsoever could still be outside of your personal value town.  But that can't possibly be the way it was intended, since not only does D3 not know your personal value threshold, but value is subjective.  The only valid way to interpret what they said is as a relative statement to how things were before.  And in that sense, it's true.

Bil

Technically, the chances of getting dupes before were lower thanks to the reroll policy. Of course the reroll policy wasn't meant to be at the beginning ... But overall, players get more dupes than ever from elite packs. I dont see any improvement if i compare to how things were before (as far as elite packs are concerned).

Houdin

I don't think it matters overly much what they say vs what happens in actuality. 

Yes, they said that the new set up was supposed to greatly reduce the chance if repeats.

It doesnt.

The packs give percentages for pulling.
Do I belive them?
No.

I opened 44 premium packs. Which based on the percentages should have given me 16.98 mythics.
I got 9 which is 20.02 %
Just over half what if should be.

Now I know the math says that over a large enough sampling size the percentage shown should occur.

Do I belive it?
No.

Is there anyway to prove it?
No.

If you can't see the loophole in the fact that you 're trusting them to give accurate percentages or accurate statements on chances if duplicates when they are the only ones who have access to the data to prove it and they are the only ones who would have access to that data if forced to supply it.

Well then I have a bridge I can sell you. Really cheap .

Volrak

Bil said:

Technically, the chances of getting dupes before were lower thanks to the reroll policy. Of course the reroll policy wasn't meant to be at the beginning ... But overall, players get more dupes than ever from elite packs. I dont see any improvement if i compare to how things were before (as far as elite packs are concerned).

To be clear, when I say dupes are less likely, I'm comparing with the immediately previous release.  The reduction in dupes appears to be only due to greater chance of MP in elite packs.

The reroll policy was implemented as a temporary, semi-official band-aid response to complaints, which got revised a bunch of times during its life.  I wouldn't pick any part of that as my baseline for expectations, but to the degree that anyone does, it's another lesson for D3.

Houdin said:

Yes, they said that the new set up was supposed to greatly reduce the chance if repeats.

Agreed.  They said there should be a "much lower" chance of dupes.  I think the chance is only a little lower.

Houdin said:

Now I know the math says that over a large enough sampling size the percentage shown should occur.

Do I belive it?
No.

Is there anyway to prove it?
No.

There is absolutely a way to check whether the published drop rates are true.  It's via the collection and analysis of a lot of unbiased data.

Houdin said:

you 're trusting them to give accurate percentages

You appear to be accusing the person leading the community effort to study drop rates of blindly trusting the very claims by D3 whose scrutiny is the entire point of that effort.  Seems like you've got this one backwards.

Oh, and did I mention we need a lot of data?  If you care about knowing the truth, you're free to help take us a step closer by sharing your own data as you open packs, using the link in my sig.  If you want to help but it's not clear how, just PM me.

Bil

  @volrak Be sure that i wasn't trying to discuss your point. Im pretty sure that If anyone here has an informed point of view about droprates it might be you. Besides, i have much respect for the work some of you guys are doing to compile, analyze and give feedback on data for the whole community.
   
     My point was just that people are experimenting the same feeling than before the reroll policy appeared ... Booster crafting doesn't compensate the frustration of wasting 400 pinks for 500 orbs. 
     
   When they decided to get rid of reroll policy, i think they should have proposed something more significant to avoid dupes than a large pool of cards and the perspective of booster crafting.
     The worse thing was to drop this enigmatic sentence about lower chances of dupes and this ridiculous "valuetown" concept ... It actually gave the fake impression that they would do something consistent against duped elite packs.

Volrak

Bil said:

     My point was just that people are experimenting the same feeling than before the reroll policy appeared ... Booster crafting doesn't compensate the frustration of wasting 400 pinks for 500 orbs. A frustration that was (legitimately) compensated by the reroll policy.

Thanks for clarifying.  I agree that no matter what the objective statistics say, if people are still experiencing frustration then there's an opportunity for D3 to try to address that.

joerginger

Another 400 purples bought and saved for weeks, another dupe. This is absolutely ridiculous.